Author Topic: FB - Facebook  (Read 173520 times)

Lakesider

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #720 on: August 01, 2018, 09:53:47 PM »
Anyone else think their product is just getting worse and worse?

Its basically just a stream of ads to your face. when they changed from personal pages to a news stream type system I was gone.


Parsad

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #721 on: August 01, 2018, 11:28:46 PM »
I just think FBs moat is not deep at all. Look at MySpace. Disappeared. A few years from now difficult to say  can say if people will still be using Facebook or something else.

If you use that logic then Amazon's moat is about as strong as Overstock's.  MySpace had a peak user base of 75M...Facebook has 2.5B users and Instagram has over 800M and is still growing rapidly.  Cheers!
No man is a failure who has friends!

compoundvalue

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #722 on: August 02, 2018, 06:41:29 AM »
I think that Instagram has more than 1bn users actually...

Liberty

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #723 on: August 02, 2018, 07:46:54 AM »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Interesting podcast (new link)

Shooter MacGavin

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #724 on: August 02, 2018, 08:26:58 AM »
I just think FBs moat is not deep at all. Look at MySpace. Disappeared. A few years from now difficult to say  can say if people will still be using Facebook or something else.



If you use that logic then Amazon's moat is about as strong as Overstock's.  MySpace had a peak user base of 75M...Facebook has 2.5B users and Instagram has over 800M and is still growing rapidly.  Cheers!


Facebook's moat isn't impregnable, but it's at least been stress tested. Orkut, Google Plus, Snapchat, Pinterest, Twitter plus a handful of others.

It's not enough to have a ton of users.  Look at Yahoo!.  Yahoo had 900M daily visitors before it got sold to VZ/Aol and they didn't know how to make a profit on it with display advertising.  Their ad product sucked and they didn't have the know how to harvest the data and make it effective.

LongTermView

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #725 on: August 02, 2018, 08:44:22 AM »
Good point about Yahoo, Shooter.

bonkers

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #726 on: August 02, 2018, 08:45:27 AM »
FB's business is still here, let's leave that aside for now. However, I still want to get back to my original question on guidance.

It's a temporary blip...they are saying that higher security spending will decrease net margins...revenues will still be growing quite rapidly.  Within two years, margins will rebound as they probably won't be spending as much on security upgrades.  Of the FAANG stocks, Apple and Facebook are the only ones trading at a reasonable price.  Cheers!
AGREED!
I think sooner or later, the security will be automated for the most part. A large part of their AI drive may go in this direction, Its a few billion dollar of annual expenses and I am fairly sure, that AI sooner or later can do this better and faster than any human can.

I would appreciate your opinion about the following statements:

CFO David M. Wehner:
"We continue to expect that full-year 2018 total expenses will grow [faster than revenue] in the range of 50% to 60% compared to last year. In addition to increases in core product development and infrastructure, this growth is driven by increasing investment in areas like safety and security, AR/VR, marketing, and content acquisition. Looking beyond 2018, we anticipate that total expense growth will exceed revenue growth in 2019."

"Over the next several years, we would anticipate that our operating margins will trend towards the mid-30s on a percentage basis."

Are you saying:
  a) you know better than he does (recruiting needs, development of AI, etc.)
  b) he is just being conservative - in the extreme
  c) he is lying for some reason ?

Schwab711

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #727 on: August 02, 2018, 08:56:13 AM »
I think what he is saying is incremental operating margins will be ~35%. I think they wanted to avoid being overly specific and the market took it to mean overall operating margins will be 35% in 2020 or so. That may be true and that's what I'm preparing for, but I read it as incremental operating margins of 35% will drag overall margins down steadily. If the latter is the case then overall margins will be meaningfully higher than 35% in 2020 (pending your revenue growth assumptions).

walt373

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #728 on: August 04, 2018, 10:05:50 AM »
Tweetstorm on how FB's moat is widening: https://twitter.com/antoniogm/status/1022590019519664128

Liberty

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #729 on: August 10, 2018, 10:37:37 AM »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Interesting podcast (new link)