Author Topic: FB - Facebook  (Read 191969 times)

valueinvestor

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #780 on: October 31, 2018, 04:46:26 PM »
“The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads; that sucks” - Jeff Hammerbacher

17 words that will be etched in fame in due course.

Two words "Opt in" if when regulated in will be giant sucking sound for the online ad scene.
I'm not sure you can opt-in to ads when the service is free?  I suppose you could opt to pay a subscription fee in lieu?

Sure, let's see how FB fares in a subscription fee realm. Different ball game, good old competition will rule then. Everyone I know came in because it is free, they will  leave when it no longer is. "Free" is the perception that is now worth a couple of trillion of market cap. Those are deep pockets, now the daggers are coming out from all sides: Traditional media, old telecom, socialist nation/states, consumer advocacy.

I think what walkie is saying is that you can either recieve ads or pay a subscription fee.  At that point most people would opt-in to receive ads in lieu of paying a subscription.

That is as seen from FB's perspective. Some of the regulatory intent floating around starts with allowing consumers the choice of opting in even if the service is "free". That's because the world is now caught up with the monetization scheme and is staring at the deep pockets behind the 2 Trillion. Plus there are lots of well heeled losers of this, Murdoch for instance and someone as dear to COBF as Malone.

To me, the real revelation will be the blowing of the urban myth surrounding the efficacy of the online ad spending. 

Not sure what is meant by this, but I find online ad spending provides huge ROI for certain businesses, especially ones being run online. Kylie Jenner, for example, who recently appeared on Forbes. My business had grown incredibly when we started to use Google and Facebook marketing! The cost of running an ad is incredibly low, even on a relative basis, while incredibly under-utilized. In the age of entrepreneurship, I think there's an incredible runway for Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 04:48:14 PM by valueinvestor »


walkie518

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #781 on: November 06, 2018, 01:19:01 PM »
115 accounts...really?

this seems like a pr stunt rather than an effort to combat the problem

valueinvestor

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #782 on: November 07, 2018, 07:16:57 AM »
115 accounts...really?

this seems like a pr stunt rather than an effort to combat the problem

Huh? Was that directed at my post? or was there a separate issue with 115 accounts?

walkie518

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #783 on: November 07, 2018, 08:00:16 AM »
115 accounts...really?

this seems like a pr stunt rather than an effort to combat the problem

Huh? Was that directed at my post? or was there a separate issue with 115 accounts?
no, sorry

the 115 was about the number of accounts that were targeted as possible interference during the mid-terms

I don't see how there would only be 115 accounts...this doesn't make sense when there could be hundreds of thousands if one were to put money behind an effort to tamper with elections and automate

 

Schwab711

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #784 on: November 07, 2018, 09:06:43 AM »
The 115 come from a specific tip. It's probably related to the ongoing IRA/Prigozhin case.

Gregmal

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #785 on: November 08, 2018, 08:14:53 PM »
So I've held off commenting here(outside of one comment) but this is an easy short IMO. The business is one dimensional and the greatest resource this company has(data) is becoming less and less useful to it. As I said at $170 after the Q2 earnings, this is challenged. Sentiment has shifted, no one is buying them out, they have nothing to spin off(WhatsApp and IG are just different versions of what FB already is), public and or private comps are not favorable, and the nail in the coffin IMO is that with the split now in government, regulating and choking off social media will become a bipartisan effort and FB is the whipping boy. They'll have huge headwinds over the next two years and at the least have to waste tons of time and resources making it look like they're reforming. Sentiment has clearly shifted and this is not a diversified business. I see tons of solid businesses trading at significantly lower multiples, so I see zero reason why FB can't continue to grow the bottom line will still treading in mud or even heading lower.

And FWIW SNAP/TWTR are literally worth the equivalent of what FB's daily trading fluctuations are...I think IG is a premium business, right now(who knows what the future holds, just like MySpace in 2005) so getting anywhere near $400B on a SOTP is a major stretch for me...


DanielGMask

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #786 on: November 09, 2018, 06:11:26 AM »
So I've held off commenting here(outside of one comment) but this is an easy short IMO. The business is one dimensional and the greatest resource this company has(data) is becoming less and less useful to it. As I said at $170 after the Q2 earnings, this is challenged. Sentiment has shifted, no one is buying them out, they have nothing to spin off(WhatsApp and IG are just different versions of what FB already is), public and or private comps are not favorable, and the nail in the coffin IMO is that with the split now in government, regulating and choking off social media will become a bipartisan effort and FB is the whipping boy. They'll have huge headwinds over the next two years and at the least have to waste tons of time and resources making it look like they're reforming. Sentiment has clearly shifted and this is not a diversified business. I see tons of solid businesses trading at significantly lower multiples, so I see zero reason why FB can't continue to grow the bottom line will still treading in mud or even heading lower.

And FWIW SNAP/TWTR are literally worth the equivalent of what FB's daily trading fluctuations are...I think IG is a premium business, right now(who knows what the future holds, just like MySpace in 2005) so getting anywhere near $400B on a SOTP is a major stretch for me...

I haven’t commented either but I’m buying. For me is a long and I’m putting my money where my words are.
You should follow me on twitter @DanielGMask

matts

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #787 on: November 09, 2018, 08:03:47 AM »
So I've held off commenting here(outside of one comment) but this is an easy short IMO. The business is one dimensional and the greatest resource this company has(data) is becoming less and less useful to it. As I said at $170 after the Q2 earnings, this is challenged. Sentiment has shifted, no one is buying them out, they have nothing to spin off(WhatsApp and IG are just different versions of what FB already is), public and or private comps are not favorable, and the nail in the coffin IMO is that with the split now in government, regulating and choking off social media will become a bipartisan effort and FB is the whipping boy. They'll have huge headwinds over the next two years and at the least have to waste tons of time and resources making it look like they're reforming. Sentiment has clearly shifted and this is not a diversified business. I see tons of solid businesses trading at significantly lower multiples, so I see zero reason why FB can't continue to grow the bottom line will still treading in mud or even heading lower.

And FWIW SNAP/TWTR are literally worth the equivalent of what FB's daily trading fluctuations are...I think IG is a premium business, right now(who knows what the future holds, just like MySpace in 2005) so getting anywhere near $400B on a SOTP is a major stretch for me...

So the ONLY thing you have held your tongue on inside this investment forum is an investment in which you have a high conviction opinion?  ???

I kid, I kid, don't start a thing...
 

Gregmal

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #788 on: November 09, 2018, 08:18:14 AM »
I am an expert and a genius when it comes to politics and certain investment ideas. I am far from one when it comes to social media/tech stocks and short selling. So the bar for me must be higher!

SHDL

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Re: FB - Facebook
« Reply #789 on: November 09, 2018, 01:04:17 PM »
I actually own some long dated FB puts, although I regard that mainly as a hedge for my GOOGL position as opposed to a straight bet on Facebook’s demise.