Author Topic: OFG- OFB Bancorp  (Read 2280 times)

LowIQinvestor

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OFG- OFB Bancorp
« on: December 28, 2017, 10:07:08 AM »
It looks insanely mis-priced!

Balance sheet is flush with cash, mgmt seems conservative (re: loan loss reserves), net interest margins are well above industry and I just read a report that they are in a position to buyback shares soon.

Trades at 55% of TBV

Just found this:
http://www.gatorcapital.com/Media/Default/News/Gator_Reprint_v3.pdf

Does anyone have more color on Gator Capital's LONG thesis on OFG?


Foreign Tuffett

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Re: OFG- OFB Bancorp
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2017, 10:53:20 AM »
It looks insanely mis-priced!

Balance sheet is flush with cash, mgmt seems conservative (re: loan loss reserves), net interest margins are well above industry and I just read a report that they are in a position to buyback shares soon.

Trades at 55% of TBV

Just found this:
http://www.gatorcapital.com/Media/Default/News/Gator_Reprint_v3.pdf

Does anyone have more color on Gator Capital's LONG thesis on OFG?

OFG is based in San Juan and operates only in Puerto Rico. The interview with Gator Capital was done prior to the September hurricanes.

LowIQinvestor

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Re: OFG- OFB Bancorp
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2017, 11:13:17 AM »
It looks insanely mis-priced!

Balance sheet is flush with cash, mgmt seems conservative (re: loan loss reserves), net interest margins are well above industry and I just read a report that they are in a position to buyback shares soon.

Trades at 55% of TBV

Just found this:
http://www.gatorcapital.com/Media/Default/News/Gator_Reprint_v3.pdf

Does anyone have more color on Gator Capital's LONG thesis on OFG?

OFG is based in San Juan and operates only in Puerto Rico. The interview with Gator Capital was done prior to the September hurricanes.

Yes, I understand.
But the analysis may still be very valid and the price is better today.
Apparently the worst fears about "runs" on bank deposits never happened. In the case of OFG, deposits are holding steady & commercial and auto lending are picking up!

_JJ_

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Re: OFG- OFB Bancorp
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2017, 11:52:56 AM »
It looks insanely mis-priced!

Balance sheet is flush with cash, mgmt seems conservative (re: loan loss reserves), net interest margins are well above industry and I just read a report that they are in a position to buyback shares soon.

Trades at 55% of TBV

Just found this:
http://www.gatorcapital.com/Media/Default/News/Gator_Reprint_v3.pdf

Does anyone have more color on Gator Capital's LONG thesis on OFG?

OFG is based in San Juan and operates only in Puerto Rico. The interview with Gator Capital was done prior to the September hurricanes.

Yes, I understand.
But the analysis may still be very valid and the price is better today.
Apparently the worst fears about "runs" on bank deposits never happened. In the case of OFG, deposits are holding steady & commercial and auto lending are picking up!

Price is not better: $8.85 vs $9.05 today.

LowIQinvestor

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Re: OFG- OFB Bancorp
« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2017, 12:14:07 PM »
It looks insanely mis-priced!

Balance sheet is flush with cash, mgmt seems conservative (re: loan loss reserves), net interest margins are well above industry and I just read a report that they are in a position to buyback shares soon.

Trades at 55% of TBV

Just found this:
http://www.gatorcapital.com/Media/Default/News/Gator_Reprint_v3.pdf

Does anyone have more color on Gator Capital's LONG thesis on OFG?

OFG is based in San Juan and operates only in Puerto Rico. The interview with Gator Capital was done prior to the September hurricanes.

Yes, I understand.
But the analysis may still be very valid and the price is better today.
Apparently the worst fears about "runs" on bank deposits never happened. In the case of OFG, deposits are holding steady & commercial and auto lending are picking up!

Price is not better: $8.85 vs $9.05 today.

Oh ok. Saw that it was around $9.60 beginning of Sept.
Anyway, I think a fair value for OFG is probably around 80% of TBV given the situation in Puerto Rico.

OFG currently at $9.00 with a fair value of $13.00. Ballpark 40% upside.


LowIQinvestor

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Re: OFG- OFB Bancorp
« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2018, 09:15:45 AM »
If you want to understand the situation in Puerto Rico, Popular Inc had some recent commentary from earnings report:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4139496-populars-bpop-ceo-ignacio-alvarez-q4-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single


"Power generation is currently at approximately 85% of normal production, up from 30% at the end of October, now reaching approximately 67% of all customers. According to the Army Corp engineers latest estimate, substantially all of Puerto Rico should have electricity restores by the end of February.

While the restoration of power generation has been slow, our operations and several measures of economic activity have returned close to pre-storm levels. "

LowIQinvestor

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Re: OFG- OFB Bancorp
« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2018, 07:01:00 AM »

LowIQinvestor

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Re: OFG- OFB Bancorp
« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2018, 10:46:27 AM »
UP 30% since original post
Another 30% more to go to get to a fair value
Now trades at just .65 of TBV
Insurance money will start flowing into PR this year

LowIQinvestor

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Re: OFG- OFB Bancorp
« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2018, 07:07:15 AM »
Annual Report for OFG !

http://annualreport.orientalbank.com/

Book Value close to $16 with stock price at $11.

LowIQinvestor

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Re: OFG- OFB Bancorp
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2018, 06:43:27 AM »