Author Topic: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles  (Read 826335 times)

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2570 on: September 28, 2017, 09:50:52 AM »
Fiat Family Value Overtakes Tesla, GM on Marchionne Overhaul
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-28/fiat-family-value-surges-past-tesla-gm-on-marchionne-s-overhaul

I know a number of us on here have been invested in FCAU for a while now. I think I bought my first shares back in August 2014. And, since I bought them at such depressed prices back then, I feel I have an anchor bias. In the run up since, there have been quite a few times that I've thought about adding to my position but, have not been able to pull the trigger.

I'd love to get some perspective on this - Do you guys feel similarly? How have you been able to cope with this bias?

Much appreciated!

I understand your feelings. It's also difficult for me to add significantly to positions that have gone up as well.

Fiat made it a little easier for me to increase because there were often pull backs that made it psychologically easier to pick up - like right after the Ferrari spin-off. Having the upward anchor price and knowing it was 20-25% below that price made it more palatable to add to the position.

Also, I was able to convince myself to add bit more when I swapped from a stock position to an options position because my $ downside was reduced in the event of a large correction. I probably never added as much as I should have for how ridicululously cheap it was.

I don't think its worth beating yourself up for though. You got in and you've done well with it. Had it gone down 90%, you'd probably be asking yourself what you did wrong and tips on risk management instead of if you had purchased enough. You pulled the trigger when it mattered and made good money. Can you improve on that? Maybe, but the incremental gains are the hardest fought for.





winjitsu

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2571 on: September 28, 2017, 03:33:35 PM »
Fiat Family Value Overtakes Tesla, GM on Marchionne Overhaul
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-28/fiat-family-value-surges-past-tesla-gm-on-marchionne-s-overhaul

I know a number of us on here have been invested in FCAU for a while now. I think I bought my first shares back in August 2014. And, since I bought them at such depressed prices back then, I feel I have an anchor bias. In the run up since, there have been quite a few times that I've thought about adding to my position but, have not been able to pull the trigger.

I'd love to get some perspective on this - Do you guys feel similarly? How have you been able to cope with this bias?

Much appreciated!

Process!

Hopefully you are writing down your thesis + some type of price target / IV estimate.

Take into account new info when its comes in [eg. new earnings, spinoff], and keep updating your IV. That way rather than anchor on your original purchase price, you just consider current price vs current IV. Price may move up, but hopefully IV does as well.

Guard against thesis creep by look @ your old write-ups.

nikhil25

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2572 on: September 29, 2017, 08:15:39 AM »
Thank you both - really appreciate the perspective!

Pondside47

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2573 on: October 20, 2017, 07:43:50 AM »
FCAU is trading at $17, upside to a $32/$17/$12 share price is 88%/0%/-30%. If you have a tax deferred account, I believe Exor has a similar upside with better downside protection. Assuming their share buyback will drive the discount to NAV from 30% to 15%, a $32/$17/$12 FCAU price with Ferrari and CNH trading at where they are today translates into a 61%/22%/9% upside from current EUR 52/share. Am I missing anything other than the tax they will have to pay if they end up selling FCAU?

« Last Edit: October 20, 2017, 07:46:55 AM by Pondside47 »

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2574 on: October 20, 2017, 07:54:28 AM »
FCAU is trading at $17, upside to a $32/$17/$12 share price is 88%/0%/-30%. If you have a tax deferred account, I believe Exor has a similar upside with lower downside protection. Assuming their share buyback will drive the discount to NAV from 30% to 15%, a $32/$17/$12 FCAU price with Ferrari and CNH trading at where they are today translates into a 61%/22%/9% upside from current EUR 52/share. Am I missing anything other than the tax they will have to pay if they end up selling FCAU?

I haven't done the exact analysis to compare potential upsides, but it strikes me as being about right. If FCAU does well, I'd expect that FCAU will do better than Exor if only for the fact that Exor's returns will be diluted by its other holdings and any potential tax bills owed on a sale.

It's the reduced downside that has attracted me to Exor. If you bet on FCAU and FCAU craters, you'll do poorly. If you bet on EXOR and FCAU craters, you can still hope for the closing of the NAV gap to help get you closer to being whole and you don't lose too much.

There are more ways to win with EXOR, you'll just win less. The higher FCAU goes, the more attractive EXOR gets to me.

Disclosure: Roughly 65/35 FCAU and EXOR respectively.


plato1976

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2575 on: October 24, 2017, 12:17:45 PM »
Very nice run
Anyone wants to put a fair value on this one?
Thinking about price target now...

Thank you both - really appreciate the perspective!

flesh

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2576 on: October 26, 2017, 06:04:58 PM »
A quick thanks to those of you who responded earlier in the thread regarding my question about how I could have missed this one after staring and not concentrating on it for years. This led me to reconsider NC which I had previously held and then took a large position in and really made my year.

Thanks!

fareastwarriors

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2577 on: January 04, 2018, 10:22:41 AM »
Alfa Romeo Bets Big on America and Wins

The racy brand outperformed all others in U.S. sales last year.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-04/alfa-romeo-bets-big-on-america-and-wins

sjh

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2578 on: January 05, 2018, 04:19:01 AM »
Nice price action recently, I guess mainly driven by the US tax reform news. Go Sergio and John!  :)

kab60

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Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Reply #2579 on: January 05, 2018, 04:22:23 AM »
It's a new report from JP Morgan expecting 2018 to be a great year for the car sector. Peugeot and Volkswagne also up.