Author Topic: FELP - Foresight Energy  (Read 198520 times)

heth247

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #920 on: October 25, 2017, 09:16:59 AM »

Hopefully Deer Run will start soon.

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Eight members of the Hillsboro Planning Commission met at 12:30 Thursday, Sept. 21, in city hall to both make and listen to reports from their various committees.
Mayor Brian Sullivan combined hopefulness (he said indications are the Deer Run Mine will again produce coal, though nothing is certain, including a time line) and remorse (again based on indicationsĖnot certaintyĖhe feels the Dynegy power plant west of Coffeen will shutter). One of those indications is the lack of spending on maintenance. He commented, "In an ideal world for the local economy, the mine would reopen and the power plant would stay open," but he feels that's not realistic, so planners need to be aware of the possibilities.

http://www.thejournal-news.net/news/mayor-shares-optimism-pessimism-on-economy/article_0d88cd64-a199-11e7-a058-872425db6ac5.html


gadfly

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #921 on: October 26, 2017, 05:26:47 PM »
Well it looks like API 2 at $90 is less profitable than API 2 at 85. If you check out the attachment from SXCP's earnings call, it looks like shipping rates are up, sulfur penalties are up and btu premiums are down. Last quarter SXCP estimated $43 netbacks on $85 API 2 pricing, now they estimate $38 netbacks on $90 API 2 pricing, damn.

Platts coal trader reported that FELP produced 5.3 million tons in Q3, if they were able to sell most of that as well as their significant inventory from Q2, they should be in good shape for this quarter.

The last few days there has been a lot of activity in FELP Dec options. Selling $5 puts and buying $5 calls...10 cents seems cheap for the Dec calls, I hope someone makes 10x on it.

gadfly

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #922 on: October 30, 2017, 06:30:07 PM »
More on API 2 at $90 not really being a home run for netbacks. ARLP CEO Joe Craft saying export realized prices aren't much different than domestic at these levels:

"On your first question, the export price, I mean, you read a lot and you've heard a lot about the sulfur discount, the belief that the sulfur discount really pretty much ties to what we can get into the domestic market. So our pricing tends to be right on top of where the domestic market is and thatís what it dictates in my view what the sulfur discount is, and that is different for our Gibson Mine which is a lower sulfur mine and so itís hard to make an argument for sulfur discount if you donít have high sulfur."

Couldn't find any info on the exact sulfur content at ARLP's Gibson mine, but if you assume ARLP's coal is slightly better than FELPs and FELPs logistics are slightly better than ARLP's, then it's probably a wash.

heth247

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #923 on: October 31, 2017, 12:52:33 PM »
More on API 2 at $90 not really being a home run for netbacks. ARLP CEO Joe Craft saying export realized prices aren't much different than domestic at these levels:

"On your first question, the export price, I mean, you read a lot and you've heard a lot about the sulfur discount, the belief that the sulfur discount really pretty much ties to what we can get into the domestic market. So our pricing tends to be right on top of where the domestic market is and thatís what it dictates in my view what the sulfur discount is, and that is different for our Gibson Mine which is a lower sulfur mine and so itís hard to make an argument for sulfur discount if you donít have high sulfur."

Couldn't find any info on the exact sulfur content at ARLP's Gibson mine, but if you assume ARLP's coal is slightly better than FELPs and FELPs logistics are slightly better than ARLP's, then it's probably a wash.

thanks for the infor. We really need Deer Run mine to come back to live again to make this a home run.

PullTheTrigger

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #924 on: November 01, 2017, 09:20:46 AM »
Interesting development with MEC.

http://www.coalage.com/news/latest/5772-mec-bowie-partner-to-create-canyon-consolidated-resources.html#.Wfny2GhSyUl

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Murray Energy Corp. (MEC), Bowie Resource Partners, Javelin Global Commodities, and Grupo CLISA have agreed to form a strategic partnership called Canyon Consolidated Resources (CCR), which will produce approximately 13 million tons per year (tpy) and own 214.8 million tons of coal reserves.


MEC will hold a 30.5% stake in CCR. Chairman of Bowie John Siegel will also control 30.5%, and 28.5 % will be held by second lien lenders via warrants. Javelin and CLISA will control 7.25% and 2.25%, respectively

CCR will purchase and market coal produced from Lila Canyon. Through a services agreement, MEC will provide certain operational, procurement and administrative services for CCR. The CCR investors expect to finance a portion of the partnership, and pay related fees and expenses, with the proceeds of debt financing. A portion of these proceeds will be used to recapitalize Bowieís existing capital structure.

In connection with the transaction, Bowie will refinance its existing senior secured credit facilities with new debt financing. Specifically, Bowie Resource Holdings LLC and Canyon Finance Corp. intend to offer up to $375 million of senior secured notes due 2022 through a private placement. Bowie intends to use the proceeds to refinance its existing senior secured credit facilities and finance the acquisition of Bowie by CCR. In addition, Javelin and CLISA will contribute cash to CCR in exchange for equity in CCR and certain exclusive export marketing rights

PullTheTrigger

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #925 on: November 01, 2017, 09:35:52 AM »
Doesn't look like MEC contributes anything and gets 30.5% of partnership. I'd guess MEC will charge for the "operational, procurement and administrative services" it will perform.

Sounds positive to me.

heth247

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #926 on: November 09, 2017, 11:04:12 AM »
Looks like a descent quarter. But market does not like it, probably because of the increase in the cost to $23 per ton, and no substantial news on Hillsboro.  Did I hear it correct that CEO said on the call that he is expecting to export 6~8MM tons in 2018?

gadfly

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #927 on: November 15, 2017, 04:52:26 PM »
Looks like a descent quarter. But market does not like it, probably because of the increase in the cost to $23 per ton, and no substantial news on Hillsboro.  Did I hear it correct that CEO said on the call that he is expecting to export 6~8MM tons in 2018?

Yep, you heard that right. Overall the call seemed okay. No Hillsboro news and Moore was somewhat gloomy, but nothing unexpected.

Anyone have any high level insight into Murray's recent earnings? Murray bond's were clobbered and are down in the mid 40s. Foresight's bonds were in the low 80s today. Pretty grim for Murray, and somewhat grim for Foresight.

In the event of a Murray Bankruptcy, is he expected to lead the company post bankruptcy?


heth247

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #928 on: November 15, 2017, 07:26:25 PM »
Looks like a descent quarter. But market does not like it, probably because of the increase in the cost to $23 per ton, and no substantial news on Hillsboro.  Did I hear it correct that CEO said on the call that he is expecting to export 6~8MM tons in 2018?

Yep, you heard that right. Overall the call seemed okay. No Hillsboro news and Moore was somewhat gloomy, but nothing unexpected.

Anyone have any high level insight into Murray's recent earnings? Murray bond's were clobbered and are down in the mid 40s. Foresight's bonds were in the low 80s today. Pretty grim for Murray, and somewhat grim for Foresight.

In the event of a Murray Bankruptcy, is he expected to lead the company post bankruptcy?

Hope Picasso can share some insight on MEC.  Regarding FELP, one thing I don't really understand is that on the call, they mentioned that they are not buying back the bonds because they don't get the benefit in terms of the debt sweep. Why? how could buying debt at 80c a dollar not benefit them?  I wish they could spend excess cash flow buying back bonds or units, instead of paying out as distribution.

gadfly

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #929 on: December 03, 2017, 04:33:19 PM »
An update on pricing from Platts below. It's presented as somewhat bullish, but doesn't seem good. They say $57 per metric ton FOB New Orleans, which, by my math, means only $31.7 netbacks:
 ((2000/2204) * $57 - $20 (ILB mine to CMT cost)  = $31.7. That number is much worse than what SXCP guided for ILB to Europe netbacks last quarter ($38) and FELP's most recent quarter netbacks for all production ($36.29).

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Exports, however, are starting to heat up. Overseas prices remain strong, and Indian buyers are said to be in the market in a major way. Export prices for Illinois Basin coal are reportedly being heard at $56/mt-$57/mt FOB New Orleans, said a source.

India is also sourcing a lot of Northern Appalachian coal, which could create a domestic hole that Illinois Basin producers can fill, said the second producer.

"There are good things to come," said the second producer.

S&P Global Platts assessed Illinois Basin 11,500 Btu/lb, 5 lb SO2/MMBtu, low chlorine FOB barge coal for first quarter of 2018 delivery at $38/st, up 50 cents week on week, based on a survey of market participants.


« Last Edit: December 03, 2017, 04:35:01 PM by gadfly »