Author Topic: FELP - Foresight Energy  (Read 285004 times)

Picasso

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #350 on: July 08, 2016, 03:40:12 PM »
I posted something to that tune on Twitter.  The coal export terminal that Cline used to own and sold to SXCP last summer can push through 15Mt of exports.  Murray and Foresight each have a 5 Mt take-or-pay with that facility.  As of the end of the 1Q Foresight only hedged 1Mt.  And if you go through SXCP earnings they were only using about 60% of their capacity at the export terminal in the 1Q.  Or it might be less than 60%, I'm just going off memory. 

If they can push through more volume above their minimum 5Mt levels, that's maybe $4-5 margins per ton at $57 API 2.  Maybe more if you give credit for the fact that it's incremental tonnage and costs are pretty fixed, so per ton costs are probably going down.  I think it would strongly imply that volumes will hold up pretty well this year.  And Foresight seems best positioned as the first producer to be "in the money" on coal exports at current API 2 pricing.  I don't think even Murray is at that level.


sampr01

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #351 on: July 08, 2016, 04:28:00 PM »
Is there way track domestic coal spot price?. Is it the same?

Picasso

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #352 on: July 08, 2016, 05:04:35 PM »
ILB spot is different. https://www.eia.gov/coal/markets/

SNL Energy has some useful information in terms of local pricing. I noticed that some utilities are pulling in spot from Foresight in the high $30's as recently as the 1Q, but it varies. That utility also had contracts with Foresight running off in 2016 and 2018, so kind of interesting to see them pull additional volume at spot.  I'd need to dig in more to see if that's happening at ARLP.  They also signed a contract for 1Mt and an option up to 3Mt with LG-KU at $38-42 out into 2019. 

SNL is around $36k per year, so I haven't decided to purchase it yet because I was sort of hoping I wouldn't need to. But I did a demo with a rep to go through some pieces of their data that I can't find elsewhere and it's getting to the point where I think I need to bite that bullet.  If anyone has access to help out with some data I'm looking for, that'd be helpful.  It seemed to me like the Western producers are at massive risk and I'd like to cross check which utilities are pulling from PRB that can instead pull from FELP more cheaply. 

sampr01

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #353 on: July 08, 2016, 05:56:31 PM »
Thanks for the info. if they do volume 22 mill tons (17 mt to domestic and 5mt) this year. Foresight will have $20-25 mil from exports at $5 margin per ton and $170 mil from domestic at $10 margins per ton. Is it correct math if all variables are same?. EIA shows only $32 per ton for ILB coal, where did you get the info on high $30's pricing?

Thanks

ILB spot is different. https://www.eia.gov/coal/markets/

SNL Energy has some useful information in terms of local pricing. I noticed that some utilities are pulling in spot from Foresight in the high $30's as recently as the 1Q, but it varies. That utility also had contracts with Foresight running off in 2016 and 2018, so kind of interesting to see them pull additional volume at spot.  I'd need to dig in more to see if that's happening at ARLP.  They also signed a contract for 1Mt and an option up to 3Mt with LG-KU at $38-42 out into 2019. 

SNL is around $36k per year, so I haven't decided to purchase it yet because I was sort of hoping I wouldn't need to. But I did a demo with a rep to go through some pieces of their data that I can't find elsewhere and it's getting to the point where I think I need to bite that bullet.  If anyone has access to help out with some data I'm looking for, that'd be helpful.  It seemed to me like the Western producers are at massive risk and I'd like to cross check which utilities are pulling from PRB that can instead pull from FELP more cheaply.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2016, 05:58:28 PM by sampr01 »

Picasso

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #354 on: July 08, 2016, 06:37:07 PM »
$10 margins on the ILB seems really low considering they did $13 margins in the 1Q on very little tons sold. The $13 margins also include pretty much no margins on the export volumes, so overall ILB is likely a lot higher than $10.

SNL has all volumes and pricing going into various plants, but high $30's was not the netback price to Foresight. I'd have to dig back into it to get a better idea.

heth247

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #355 on: July 11, 2016, 11:59:09 AM »
Picasso, how to follow you on Twitter? thanks.

sampr01

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #356 on: July 11, 2016, 12:18:37 PM »
Hi Picasso

Do we have a way to find out how many notes were tendered. I hope they had enough and July 15th is the deadline.

 :)
ILB spot is different. https://www.eia.gov/coal/markets/

SNL Energy has some useful information in terms of local pricing. I noticed that some utilities are pulling in spot from Foresight in the high $30's as recently as the 1Q, but it varies. That utility also had contracts with Foresight running off in 2016 and 2018, so kind of interesting to see them pull additional volume at spot.  I'd need to dig in more to see if that's happening at ARLP.  They also signed a contract for 1Mt and an option up to 3Mt with LG-KU at $38-42 out into 2019. 

SNL is around $36k per year, so I haven't decided to purchase it yet because I was sort of hoping I wouldn't need to. But I did a demo with a rep to go through some pieces of their data that I can't find elsewhere and it's getting to the point where I think I need to bite that bullet.  If anyone has access to help out with some data I'm looking for, that'd be helpful.  It seemed to me like the Western producers are at massive risk and I'd like to cross check which utilities are pulling from PRB that can instead pull from FELP more cheaply.

Picasso

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #357 on: July 11, 2016, 12:36:29 PM »
There's still no note tender from Cline.  I think there may be some change to the note swap but I'm trying to figure out what that may be.  I spoke with Murray and SunCoke about this and they sort of mentioned that certain terms are still being worked through.  In that sense something could still fall apart.

I did take a look at Murray's financials (they're subject to NDA so don't want to say a lot).  I think I know what is going on but I'm not entirely certain.  Rather than speculate I'd rather just let the chips fall. 
« Last Edit: August 23, 2016, 03:40:53 PM by Picasso »

sampr01

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #358 on: July 11, 2016, 01:16:11 PM »

Thanks for the color. DMed you on twitter. Hope its the good for Murray subordinates.

 :)
@YoloCapMgt is my handle. 

There's still no note tender from Cline.  I think there may be some change to the note swap but I'm trying to figure out what that may be.  I spoke with Murray and SunCoke about this and they sort of mentioned that certain terms are still being worked through.  In that sense something could still fall apart.

I did take a look at Murray's financials (they're subject to NDA so don't want to say a lot).  I think I know what is going on but I'm not entirely certain.  Rather than speculate I'd rather just let the chips fall.  But if you DM me on twitter I could probably go into more detail.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2016, 01:59:07 PM by sampr01 »

Picasso

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #359 on: July 12, 2016, 03:33:02 PM »
I forgot to update this before, but Fidelity is officially out.