Author Topic: FELP - Foresight Energy  (Read 285007 times)

valcont

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #500 on: October 25, 2016, 02:28:42 PM »
Any thoughts on the valuation after the run up of the last two days? My last notes say assuming no refinance and full dilution , at 100m DCF they should be valued around $5.70 at 8x multiple(350m/6 = 58m + 71m =129 m shares divided by 100m discount to today at 8%). Do you guys think this is fully valued at 100m DCF. I know they will be doing more but until this qtr earning comes out , I am just trying to figure out the value with the information that I have.


Picasso

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #501 on: October 25, 2016, 02:34:28 PM »
I'd agree with that, if you think the long-term earnings here are $100 million then $6 is fully valued. 

valcont

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #502 on: October 25, 2016, 02:53:47 PM »
I'd agree with that, if you think the long-term earnings here are $100 million then $6 is fully valued.

Thanks Picasso. Off course there is a lot of optionality here that I like. Refinancing and hillsboro situation are the short term catalyst here. Talking about Hillsboro , they settled a lawsuit with the fired employees couple weeks ago. Not material but maybe a PR gig considering they've been waiting for the decision on extending the mine since March of this year.

Picasso

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #503 on: October 25, 2016, 03:05:22 PM »
Yep.  I think there's still a lot of optionality here that should play out favorably.  It looks fairly easy to just refi out the whole debt structure or worst case dilute at these higher unit prices.  And there is a very high probability of more than $100 million of DCF next year.  So I'd prefer to think of $6-ish as my worst case price target assuming nothing else bad happens.  I'm keeping all my eggs in the FELP basket but watching the basket very carefully...

awindenberger

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #504 on: October 25, 2016, 03:32:02 PM »
So I'd prefer to think of $6-ish as my worst case price target assuming nothing else bad happens.  I'm keeping all my eggs in the FELP basket but watching the basket very carefully...

I imagine you'd really like to be able to hold at least a year to take advantage of long term Cap Gains rates when you sell, right!

Clearly we weren't the only one's that put two and two together regarding the SXCP commentary. I'm really curious on what the timeline might be to restart paying dividends.

Picasso

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #505 on: October 25, 2016, 03:37:58 PM »
So I'd prefer to think of $6-ish as my worst case price target assuming nothing else bad happens.  I'm keeping all my eggs in the FELP basket but watching the basket very carefully...

I imagine you'd really like to be able to hold at least a year to take advantage of long term Cap Gains rates when you sell, right!

Clearly we weren't the only one's that put two and two together regarding the SXCP commentary. I'm really curious on what the timeline might be to restart paying dividends.

I'd really, really like to take advantage of the LTCG treatment if possible.  I think there's a good possibility of that.

First they need to refi out the new debt before they work on the distributions.  I noticed the new debt traded today at 95 on both the PIK's and cash pays.  Also good from a very low CODI tax standpoint.

valcont

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #506 on: October 26, 2016, 10:26:10 AM »
Is this for real? Has everyone realized all of a sudden what a great deal this stock is.

BTW do you guys know when the earning call is? Google Finance shows its tomorrow but I don't see anything on their website.

arcube

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #507 on: October 26, 2016, 10:34:13 AM »
Is this for real? Has everyone realized all of a sudden what a great deal this stock is.

BTW do you guys know when the earning call is? Google Finance shows its tomorrow but I don't see anything on their website.

This from BusinessWire.


Foresight Energy LP Schedules Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Call
Font size: A | A | A
7:30 AM ET 10/26/16 | BusinessWire

Foresight Energy LP ("Foresight") (NYSE: FELP), a Delaware limited partnership, will report its third quarter 2016 earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, November 9, 2016. A conference call to discuss financial results will take place on the same day at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Participating on the call will be Robert D. Moore, President and Chief Executive Officer and James T. Murphy, Chief Accounting Officer.

Participants may access the call using the following phone number:

Teleconference Dial in: (800) 288-8968

Participant Passcode: 405201

Investors may also listen to the call via webcast on Foresight's website at http://investor.foresight.com. A replay of the call will be available on the website for approximately one week.

About Foresight Energy LP

Foresight is a leading producer and marketer of thermal coal controlling over 3 billion tons of coal reserves in the Illinois Basin. Foresight currently operates two longwall mining complexes with three longwall mining systems (Williamson (one longwall mining system) and Sugar Camp (two longwall mining systems)), one continuous mining operation (Macoupin) and the Sitran river terminal on the Ohio River. Foresight's operations are strategically located near multiple rail and river transportation access points, providing transportation cost certainty and flexibility to direct shipments to the domestic and international markets.

http://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=bwnews&sty=20161026005078r1&sid=cmtx6&distro=nx&lang=en

View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161026005078/en/

SOURCE: Foresight Energy LP

 Foresight Energy LP
 Gary M. Broadbent, 740-338-3100
 Assistant General Counsel and Media Director
 Investor.relations@foresight.com
 media@coalsource.com
 


valcont

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #508 on: October 26, 2016, 10:49:17 AM »
Thanks arcube

jrallen81

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Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Reply #509 on: October 26, 2016, 01:39:33 PM »
So, is this a situation where the dilution is lessened as the share price goes up?