Author Topic: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc  (Read 36758 times)

KCLarkin

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2015, 09:22:15 AM »
I don't think luxury retailers have moats.

Coach clearly has a moat. It is still making 73% gross margins. Their current problems seem to be self-inflicted. They sacrificed their brand in pursuit of growth.


bizaro86

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2015, 02:50:01 PM »
I don't think luxury retailers have moats.

Coach clearly has a moat. It is still making 73% gross margins. Their current problems seem to be self-inflicted. They sacrificed their brand in pursuit of growth.

Luxury brands can trade brand equity for sales any time they want by selling more goods at lower prices. (Discount lines, outlets, sale pricing, etc) This is what coach has done, imo.

kab60

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2015, 12:38:41 PM »
Vulcan has a big position and wrote about Fossil in their latest investor letter. I like what I see (actually I hate their design). Diversified brands makes them less vulnerable to changing fasion fads. Big insider ownership, low exec comp and very big share purchases. Plus, their jewelry sales sales are growing nicely. The joker is iWatch but my gut feeling is that it is owerblown and they have the Google/Intel partnership if it takes off.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 12:44:30 PM by kab60 »

orthopa

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2015, 03:34:53 PM »
Vulcan has a big position and wrote about Fossil in their latest investor letter. I like what I see (actually I hate their design). Diversified brands makes them less vulnerable to changing fasion fads. Big insider ownership, low exec comp and very big share purchases. Plus, their jewelry sales sales are growing nicely. The joker is iWatch but my gut feeling is that it is owerblown and they have the Google/Intel partnership if it takes off.

Im going to read their letter tonight, thanks.

kab60

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2015, 07:19:38 AM »
Michael Kors announced FY2015 earnings and are down 20 percent on worse-than-expected outlook. Fossil Group was down 3-4 percent yesterday and is down another 6,5 atm on stronger USD and Kors' outlook.

orthopa

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2015, 05:01:37 PM »
Michael Kors announced FY2015 earnings and are down 20 percent on worse-than-expected outlook. Fossil Group was down 3-4 percent yesterday and is down another 6,5 atm on stronger USD and Kors' outlook.

FOSL looks to only be getting cheaper. Need to look more at Kors but both trading at 11-12 forward multiples now. Both have good balance sheets.

notorious546

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2015, 12:37:40 PM »
quote from vulvan value partners letter.

"Fossil Group has a unique business franchise in that it produces timepieces, has a global distribution network, and owns and licenses watch brands. As a result, they are an attractive partner for watch brand owners. The strong dollar has obscured their underlying growth. In addition, concerns about the impact that the Apple Watch may have on their business has weighed on the stock price. Fossil has partnered with Google to produce several versions of Android smart watches. We think a market will exist for both traditional and smart watches. We think Fossil is uniquely positioned to prosper with both traditional watches and smart watches, regardless how the market evolves."

mateo999

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2015, 06:45:56 PM »
Think about the economics to fosl from the kors relationship.  Kors clearly had the negotiating leverage going into last year's contract renewal. It was the only thing analysts kept asking about on the conference call at that time. And the CEO was evasive as could be. On top of that, ppl think that the apple watch is a different product than what fosl sells, and thus the two won't compete. i think that argument is wishful thinking.  I have a number of nicer automatic watches. If and when I get an apple watch, I'll have to think long and hard about how frequently the AW would be in rotation on my wrist. Once I'm used to checking emails on my wrist, there's no going back. It's going to be a real pain to want to check an email, but then realize.. Whoops..  I'm wearing my Tag today!  For me, if I ever started wearing an AW and found it useful, I'd probably look to sell my collection.

There's most certainly going to be an impact whether or not people are in denial about it.


orthopa

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #18 on: May 30, 2015, 12:31:36 PM »
Think about the economics to fosl from the kors relationship.  Kors clearly had the negotiating leverage going into last year's contract renewal. It was the only thing analysts kept asking about on the conference call at that time. And the CEO was evasive as could be. On top of that, ppl think that the apple watch is a different product than what fosl sells, and thus the two won't compete. i think that argument is wishful thinking.  I have a number of nicer automatic watches. If and when I get an apple watch, I'll have to think long and hard about how frequently the AW would be in rotation on my wrist. Once I'm used to checking emails on my wrist, there's no going back. It's going to be a real pain to want to check an email, but then realize.. Whoops..  I'm wearing my Tag today!  For me, if I ever started wearing an AW and found it useful, I'd probably look to sell my collection.

There's most certainly going to be an impact whether or not people are in denial about it.

Is pulling your phone out of your pocket that much more difficult then reading off of your watch?  Also how do you reply  to an email on  your phone with a lengthy reply? Siri? If that works as well and as often as it does on the phone you will end up typing it out.

InsecurityAnalysis

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Re: FOSL - Fossil Group Inc
« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2015, 08:50:17 AM »
From a purely aesthetic view traditional watches and the apple watch are very different, with each has their space. If a person is going to buy a traditional watch, I don't see them changing their mind to purchase an apple watch. Personally, traditional watches are the more versatile fashion piece across different social settings compared to the apple watch. I wouldn't wear an apple watch to an interview for example.
Just my two cents though.