Author Topic: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)  (Read 708297 times)

sculpin

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bizaro86

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Re: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)
« Reply #2651 on: June 19, 2018, 05:32:01 PM »
Thanks for the presentation link. One thing that sticks out to me is that the cogen has been consistently operating at less than 80% of capacity, which is quite low for a power plant.

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Re: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)
« Reply #2652 on: July 05, 2018, 03:07:11 PM »
Was it any of you who dumped 20,000 shares at market on a hot summer day via Merrill Lynch?

Dumb or something? Depressive? Margin call? Don't like money?

Just tell me next time and I will give you a few more dimes per share on the trade which will provide you with a nice steak dinner...

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doc75

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Re: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)
« Reply #2653 on: July 05, 2018, 03:29:30 PM »
Was it any of you who dumped 20,000 shares at market on a hot summer day via Merrill Lynch?

Dumb or something? Depressive? Margin call? Don't like money?

Just tell me next time and I will give you a few more dimes per share on the trade which will provide you with a nice steak dinner...

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I saw that.  At first I was thrilled because I had a stink bid in and thought I got filled.  But then I checked and my bid had actually expired at end of June.


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Re: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)
« Reply #2654 on: August 07, 2018, 07:21:12 PM »
Not as good as I would have hoped due to a few hiccups and this delay in getting regulatory approval for the 5th digester but, certainly a much better quarter with volume and EBITDA.

Pricing also getting better in USD and with the $CAD being weak that is another plus on pricing. If this continues, it will pay big dividends in Q4 to reduce the duration by 50% of the annual shutdown by having used these unplanned stops to implement remedies.

http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aFGE-2642822&symbol=FGE&region=C

Global oil price, cotton, pulp, all support a higher DP price. We shall see but, the odds of a major turnaround for this company remain strong.

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FFHWatcher

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Re: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)
« Reply #2655 on: August 07, 2018, 07:47:53 PM »
August 2011 post by another Fortress shareholder....

IMHO, a 370m market cap seems crazy for all the assets that they have and all the juicy catalysts on the horizon (even without any acquisitions..).

Jump ahead 7 years and it is a $45M company.
A couple thousand bucks of this stock trades per day.  7 years ago, Chad's $13M bonus compensation was being discussed, he was a genius, etc. Everyone was impressed because he was issuing stock at $50, buying it back at $30... and now it is $3. 

In 2011 Apple was something like $35 and Microsoft was $20.

Why do we all, including me, waste so much time on crap businesses in crap sectors? 

doc75

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Re: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)
« Reply #2656 on: August 07, 2018, 08:06:30 PM »

In 2011 Apple was something like $35 and Microsoft was $20.

Why do we all, including me, waste so much time on crap businesses in crap sectors?

I've been asking myself that question a lot this year.

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Re: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)
« Reply #2657 on: August 08, 2018, 03:54:16 AM »
Timing and price on cyclical is very very important.

Regarding Microsoft, I held it for a while in the $20's and sold it in the $30's. Back then you could see no exciting growth ahead. None. It was seen as a profitable company, paying a sweet dividend with utility like growth ahead.

Apple had large growth but, it had rallied enormously following the Ipod and Iphone introduction. Would it continue? What next? Pricing was higher than competitors, etc. If you had told someone about a $1 trillion valuation they would have looked at you like you were out of your mind.

Of course, investing into profitable/stable enterprises will vastly reduce the odds of a calamity of investing into a Fortress when things were great for them. However, I don't think there is a one-fits-all. Each case has to be studied individually and you always have to look forward and not in the rear view mirror.

Not easy to predict the future but, getting back to Fortress, I have yet to see a commodity that did not rebound strongly following under-investment, no interest in it for a while (years) and continued growth in demand.

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petec

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Re: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)
« Reply #2658 on: August 08, 2018, 04:04:24 AM »
Why do we all, including me, waste so much time on crap businesses in crap sectors?

Because it's not that easy to pick which companies will be great in the future! I've owned MSFT since it was at $25 because 7x EV/FCF struck me as insanely cheap for one of the world's great businesses. So chalk up one success. But I couldn't (and still can't) see the value in Apple. So I'm 1-1 on that front. The whole "buy great businesses" theme is very sensible (and to an extent I implement it, so this isn't a hater post) but suffers a lot of hindsight bias. Many formerly great businesses have gone nowhere from a certain point. I'm not sure it's a better method than deep value, overall.

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Re: FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to)
« Reply #2659 on: August 28, 2018, 02:00:14 PM »
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aFGE-2652162&symbol=FGE&region=C

Very positive IMO. I assume that they have held talks with large holders and already got their approval.

This should remove significant uncertainty. With more reliability, increased production capacity and a slowly climbing commodity with good fundamentals, EBITDA should improve quite a bit over coming quarters.

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