Author Topic: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp  (Read 36128 times)

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp
« Reply #120 on: June 14, 2018, 12:37:18 PM »
Went to the AGM today.

My confidence they will raise guidance to 200k or above is increased. I assume they will do this when they release Q2 in August which will coincide with the conversion of the 2018 debentures to shares.

There is also an analyst/investors trip being arranged for September so ideally there will be some analyst coverage at some point soon.

The stock continues to sit around 2.1x EBITDA and each multiple point increase is worth north of C$2/share vs the current price ~C$3.17.

A small increase in valuation combined with the share count increase expected in August along with higher liquidity will make the company eligible for GDXJ. Nothing like indiscriminate buying to make a stock go higher quickly.
Top 5 positions: ELF IAM GCM.NT/GCM PIF EFR.DB


SafetyinNumbers

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Re: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp
« Reply #121 on: June 17, 2018, 05:33:28 PM »
Duque wins the Colombian election.

The centre-right candidate campaigned on reducing corporate taxes below 30%. Currently, Colombia is already in the process of big tax decreases from 40% last year to 37% this year and 33% next year. Obviously, a reduction below 30% will further increase free cash flow for GCM.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/18/ivan-duque-wins-election-to-become-colombias-president
Top 5 positions: ELF IAM GCM.NT/GCM PIF EFR.DB


SafetyinNumbers

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Re: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp
« Reply #123 on: July 12, 2018, 03:02:44 AM »

My confidence they will raise guidance to 200k or above is increased.

Good call,

https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2018-07-11/gran-colombia-gold-reports-first-half-2018-gold-production-expects-to-surpass-200-000-ounces-for-the-full-year

Thanks, but with the gold price acting poorly, weíll see if anyone cares.

The company was marketing in Toronto yesterday and the feedback I received was very constructive.
Top 5 positions: ELF IAM GCM.NT/GCM PIF EFR.DB

tombgrt

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Re: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp
« Reply #124 on: July 19, 2018, 07:52:34 AM »
Ah, the joy of investing in a commodity that is impossible to value that drops like a rock! ;)

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp
« Reply #125 on: August 07, 2018, 04:51:56 AM »
GCM announces they will settle the rest of the 2018 debentures in stock at the end of the week, which is no surprise.

http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/08/07/1547916/0/en/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Announces-it-Will-Settle-100-of-its-2018-Debentures-at-Maturity-With-Common-Shares-Expanding-2018-Drill-Program-to-Test-Extensions-of-High-Grade-Discovery-at-Dep.html?ev=1

Perhaps, a market cap above $100m can bring in some institutional buyers. Itís interesting how valuation has tracked at 2x EV/EBITDA during the decline in the gold price. It will be nice to get some multiple expansion. Each multiple point is worth more than C$2/share.
Top 5 positions: ELF IAM GCM.NT/GCM PIF EFR.DB

tombgrt

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Re: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp
« Reply #126 on: August 20, 2018, 10:30:03 AM »
Doubled position at 2.1x. This is just stupid.

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp
« Reply #127 on: August 20, 2018, 11:14:49 AM »
Especially after Q2. Production in July was amazing and cash generation in the quarter was huge. I have it trading at less than 1.7x EV/EBITDA.

I think there were some 2018 bond holders who didnít know their bonds were mandatory convertible.
Top 5 positions: ELF IAM GCM.NT/GCM PIF EFR.DB

tombgrt

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Re: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp
« Reply #128 on: August 20, 2018, 11:36:27 AM »
Yes, Q2 was great. Looking forward to the next few Q. The sell-off happened at the samen time as my oil holdings, otherwise I bought more.

NorteCapital

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Re: GCM.TO - Gran Colombia Gold Corp
« Reply #129 on: August 20, 2018, 12:31:27 PM »
IMO, large holders (insiders) of the convertible are using that liquidity event to mostly get out: Serafino, Lloyd Miller, 683 Capital Management. Some will still own some shares but, that is not the big portion of how they held a stake in the company.

So your thesis made a lot of sense assuming that these people believe in the story and undervaluation: eliminate the convertible over time through repurchase/conversion.

Why they want out now? The strike this Summer was serious enough for me to start looking for an exit.

Cardboard

Do we know if Cardboard was right and insiders sold? Have they disclosed anything?