Author Topic: GRPN - Groupon  (Read 16786 times)

premfan

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #30 on: March 01, 2013, 09:05:00 AM »
At this stage of groupons evolution the business is fine. The concerns are there are two main businesses that are polar opposites in operating margins. The e-commerce business is high fixed cost and a low margin business. The trade off its much easier to scale. The deal marketplace is a high margin business that needs a lot of support people running the merchant accounts.  Mr. Kaman was hired to essentially automate the deal marketplace. The problem is groupon hired to many employees too fast. My speculation is that Andrew has a bond and loyalty to his employees. The rife could have been that lay offs are going to happen cause they don't need as many people to run the deal side of the business. They need to balance the SG& A to achieve profitability.  Basically they need to lay off a ton of people in the deal side of the business to achieve profitability. No reason to have thousands of employees if the marketplace will be automated. The days of cold calling are over.

You always have to see what motivates people. Andrew started the point as a social activist site to start campaigns against social causes. The dude isn't motivated by money. He is motivated by changing the world. Eric L. is a billionaire only cause of Andrews idea and most importantly his execution. Ideas are a dime a dozen. Execution is what importantly matters. He was unfairly targeted as the problem due to wall streets absurd expectations of a start up company in a new space.  I'm hoping this was just a PR move and Andrew is still involved with the evolution of groupon in the backround outside of the eyes of wall street.


Hielko

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #31 on: March 01, 2013, 03:28:11 PM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-masons-378-36-retirement-190743504.html
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Adding to the surreal but oddly refreshing departure of Groupon (GRPN) CEO Andrew Mason, it now appears that Mason's retirement package is minimal. As in $378.36. Not $378 million, or $370,000, but $378 - not nearly enough to even buy the proverbial gold watch (unless he shops on Canal Street).
I start to like the guy!

hellsten

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #32 on: March 02, 2013, 01:53:47 PM »
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/03/groupons-bad-deal.html

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But even a truncated list of the company’s failures borders on breathtaking: when it raised just over a billion dollars in funding over the course of 2010 and 2011, nearly nine hundred and fifty million found its way into the coffers of Groupon executives and stockholders rather than being used to fund the company.

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And while the tech press, particularly publications that focus on tech startups and Silicon Valley, is essentially enthusiastic—when Instagram was acquired by Facebook, the most well-read chronicler of Silicon Valley, TechCrunch, altered its logo in homage—it also seems unlikely that Lefkofsky will be able to provide the kind of cushioning that Mason’s almost bubbly public personality did. The end of Mason’s letter to Groupon employees says that “this leadership change gives you some breathing room,” but the company may have in fact lost its best source of air.

Palantir

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #33 on: March 04, 2013, 07:16:15 AM »
Interesting insight.

Goodbye Groupon: Andrew Mason's dance with the devil

http://www.theverge.com/2013/3/1/4043566/andrew-masons-deal-with-the-devil

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In the wake of Andrew Mason's firing as CEO of Groupon, there's been a lot of negativity towards the young entrepreneur. In part it's because Mason was always a character, someone who largely refused to take things seriously, and who preferred to defuse tension with humor, as he did in his hilarious resignation letter yesterday. This was charming at first, then increasingly less so as Groupon's financial health, business practices and accounting came into question. But as the smiling face of the fastest-growing company in history, Mason was also a shield, a barrier between the press and Eric Lefkofsky, the co-founder and investor behind Groupon, and a man with a track record of creating hypergrowth companies that have crashed and burned... after he cashed out.
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jrallen81

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #34 on: May 07, 2014, 09:30:31 AM »
Any thoughts on potential value following today's schellacking? Does anyone follow this closely anymore?

DCG

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #35 on: May 07, 2014, 09:41:02 AM »
I stupidly bought some Groupon options heading into their last earnings and got creamed and lost 100%. I was a nice reminder why I shouldn't make short-term trades.


I think the Daily Deals business model is largely doomed, and Groupon's 'trying 50 other things and hope something sticks' model hasn't worked out well so far. They should've accepted Google's stupid $6 billion offer a few years ago.


There is pretty much no barrier of entry for this business.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2014, 09:45:02 AM by DCG »

PatientCheetah

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #36 on: May 07, 2014, 10:01:58 AM »
Any thoughts on potential value following today's schellacking? Does anyone follow this closely anymore?

GRPN is in a multi quarters transition. I don't think their operating trends have bottomed out yet, hence the low in the stocks is still 1-2 quarters away. We could see the all time low again. Once GRPN stabilizes, I don't think it's business model is that different from QVC's and much more viable than ZNGA's. It's closest rival, LivingSocial, is losing market share fast. It could crave out a profitable niche for itself. I am waiting for the first positive surprise before buying shares.
risk as little as possible until all the stars have aligned

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tombgrt

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #37 on: May 07, 2014, 10:54:11 AM »
Groupon is a nice precedent to what will ultimately come in terms of stock declines to all those momentum stocks with little to no competitive advantages. Expect 90% drops from the peaks to lows to be the rule instead of the exception. I have a hard time seeing long lasting moats in companies like CRM or FB, let alone Groupon! Einhorn is right in pointing out that network effect is the only major competitive advantage that tech companies generally have (or lack), aside from a few expections maybe. He also pointed out that a bursting bubble will show great sell offs and strong rallies so be ready to handle some volatility no matter what side you are on.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2014, 10:57:13 AM by tombgrt »

PatientCheetah

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #38 on: May 07, 2014, 11:14:37 AM »
Fair enough with all the other names but please don't group FB together with them. FB is in same the league as AMZN and GOOG. Its earning power and pricing power are already evident. Expensive, yes, fad, hell no!
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tombgrt

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #39 on: May 07, 2014, 11:20:14 AM »
I'm saying I have a hard time finding a moat that will last a decade or longer. I'm not sure it's popularity won't fade. Agree that they are doing a great job monetizing and growing. That didn't mean I put it in the same league, should have been more clear sorry!