Author Topic: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics  (Read 32464 times)

Hawks

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2014, 07:02:14 AM »
Looks like the next acquisition is just around the corner.


giofranchi

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #21 on: April 09, 2015, 01:02:25 AM »
From the March 2015 Presentation:

$417 million in cash and equivalents and marketable securities.
+
Impavido: $500k expected revenue, at a multiple of 5x it would be worth $2.5 million.
+
PHOTOFRIN: Upfront payments include $32.7 million cash consideration and $5M of CHI’s common shares. Total: $37.7 million.
+
ATryn: I don’t know how to put a value on this one, therefore let’s say it is a zero.
+
NeurAxon: $1.75 million.
+
CRH Medical: USD $30 million (a loan that bears interest at 10%).
+
Apicore: USD $6.5 million (a loan that bears interest at 12%).
+
Synergy Strips: USD $6 million (a loan that bears interest at 15%).
+
Origin Biomed Inc.: $0.85 million (a loan that bears interest at 15%).

TOTAL ASSETS: $502.3 million.

Debt is zero, I think… At least it was not even mentioned in the presentation.

MARKET CAP: $772 million.

If my valuation is right, GUD today is selling for 1.54 x NAV. With lots of dry powder to use should the right opportunity come their way. And a proven management.

Am I missing something?

Thank you,

Gio
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 01:19:10 AM by giofranchi »
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EliG

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #22 on: April 09, 2015, 05:11:37 AM »
And a proven management.

CEO suffered a brain injury in an accident. He seems to be doing fine now, but the long-term effects of the head trauma are unknown and unpredictable. There is a risk he may suffer a setback. Can GUD management replicate Paladin success without Goodman, if Goodman has to step aside for health reasons?

giofranchi

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #23 on: April 09, 2015, 05:27:19 AM »
Can GUD management replicate Paladin success without Goodman, if Goodman has to step aside for health reasons?

Probably not! But, as always, I will take the evidence as it comes… Provided we have not paid too much for a great business, that policy usually leads to good and safe results: if and when Mr. Goodman would be forced to step aside for health issues, GUD simply won’t be the business I am interested in right now anymore.

Gio
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 07:29:43 AM by giofranchi »
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gary17

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2015, 07:29:32 AM »
Can GUD management replicate Paladin success without Goodman, if Goodman has to step aside for health reasons?

Probably not! But, as always, I will take the evidence as it comes… Provided we have not paid too much for a business, that policy usually leads to good and safe results: if and when Mr. Goodman would be forced to step aside for health issues, GUD simply won’t be the business I am interested in right now anymore.

Gio

I don't think it is reasonable to expect Mr. Goodman to be the same as before - however, going by what has happened last year and his personal stake in GUD; I find it a risk worth taking.   

Gary

giofranchi

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #25 on: April 09, 2015, 07:46:45 AM »
I don't think it is reasonable to expect Mr. Goodman to be the same as before

I don’t know… Surely, he won’t be the same person anymore… But in business you don’t need a very high IQ, nor a prodigious memory, nor flashes of dazzling brilliance, right?

Instead, you need emotional stability, you need the ability to think and to plan for the long term, therefore you need patience, you need to be flexible, to not be sleeping at the wheel and to constantly adjust to how circumstances evolve. And, of course, you need to have a very well thought out plan and to be in the right industry!... I am not sure how those things could be affected by an accident, even a terrible accident like the one Mr. Cooperman has suffered…

You also need a certain dose of humility… And I would say surviving a serious accident might even improve some people on this topic: to touch first-hand the precariousness of life might serve as a constant reminder of how much prudence is always warranted in everything that we attempt doing.

So, maybe (just maybe!) Mr. Goodman has lost some abilities, while also gaining others… :)

Gio
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 07:49:54 AM by giofranchi »
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giofranchi

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #26 on: April 09, 2015, 07:53:06 AM »
And don’t forget he engineered the sale of Paladin to Endo after he recovered from his accident! ;)

Cheers,

Gio
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snowball82

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #27 on: April 09, 2015, 07:56:38 AM »
And don’t forget he engineered the sale of Paladin to Endo after he recovered from his accident! ;)

Cheers,

Gio

Yes and he closed a very good deal :)

snowball82

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #28 on: April 09, 2015, 08:05:52 AM »
From the March 2015 Presentation:

$417 million in cash and equivalents and marketable securities.
+
Impavido: $500k expected revenue, at a multiple of 5x it would be worth $2.5 million.
+
PHOTOFRIN: Upfront payments include $32.7 million cash consideration and $5M of CHI’s common shares. Total: $37.7 million.
+
ATryn: I don’t know how to put a value on this one, therefore let’s say it is a zero.
+
NeurAxon: $1.75 million.
+
CRH Medical: USD $30 million (a loan that bears interest at 10%).
+
Apicore: USD $6.5 million (a loan that bears interest at 12%).
+
Synergy Strips: USD $6 million (a loan that bears interest at 15%).
+
Origin Biomed Inc.: $0.85 million (a loan that bears interest at 15%).

TOTAL ASSETS: $502.3 million.

Debt is zero, I think… At least it was not even mentioned in the presentation.

MARKET CAP: $772 million.

If my valuation is right, GUD today is selling for 1.54 x NAV. With lots of dry powder to use should the right opportunity come their way. And a proven management.

Am I missing something?

Thank you,

Gio

Thanks Gio for the list, you could also add some $ for CRH warrants. So about the Pediapharm deal it was a small one. The + $ 400 M question now is what is the return than a guy like Goodman will generate. Based on Paladin lab story (+ 19 years)... A + 20 % / year is possible on part of it. Time will tell.

muscleman

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #29 on: April 10, 2015, 12:23:25 PM »
Any US investors here? My major concern is whether this is a PFIC for US investors. They have more than 50% assets in cash.
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!