Author Topic: HTL - Hamilton Thorne  (Read 9393 times)

Gregmal

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Re: HTL - Hamilton Thorne
« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2018, 07:39:34 AM »
https://www.hamiltonthorne.ltd/index.php/news/press-releases/222-hamilton-thorne-pr-aug-28-2018

Good job to whoever got into this deal.

Yup, great move for many reasons.

Have made up my mind about the relevance of a rollup strategy beating the odds in this specific industry.

The criteria I have used and will use are:
1-operational capacity to create value
2-premium paid for acquisitions
3-financing strategy for the shareholders already on board

@Gregmal,
Obviously, the 3 criteria above are interdependent but, if your fair value of the shares now is at least between 1.85 and 2.45, what to you mean by "great move" if new shares are issued at 1.10?

I place greater importance on the company being able to execute on it's longer term growth initiatives than I do on shaving a few percent off of the current FV. They will need to raise funds, and given the run this has had and the willingness of an institutional shareholder to step up(in certain ways, this is essentially a strategic partner) all in all this is a good move. If for instance, they find another Gynamed, well then you justify doing this deal every single time.


Gregmal

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Re: HTL - Hamilton Thorne
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2018, 07:50:05 AM »
I will also point out that there are certain internal goals that the company is looking to achieve in order to uplist. This likely includes getting a greater institutional presence, specific market cap, and in general awareness within the capital markets. This deal certainly helps that goal.

I would also point out, that there is a good liklihood that this deal was struck at a premium to the then current market price of HTL. These deals typically take at least a few weeks to work out. At the time of my write up a couple weeks ago, this was trading at .94 CDN.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2018, 10:14:33 AM by Gregmal »

Cigarbutt

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Re: HTL - Hamilton Thorne
« Reply #22 on: August 31, 2018, 07:12:00 AM »
Given the concurrent discussion on stock blogs and low liquidity issues, there may be an incentive to blend into more generic discussions or anecdotal evidence as owner-operators of certain IVF clinics may show an unusual inclination to maximize the outcomes. IVF comes with its own set of ethical questions.

http://www.wilx.com/content/news/Doctor-accused-of-inseminating-patients-491688201.html

Don't we look for partners with skin in the game?

Jurgis

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Re: HTL - Hamilton Thorne
« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2018, 08:12:29 AM »
Given the concurrent discussion on stock blogs and low liquidity issues, there may be an incentive to blend into more generic discussions or anecdotal evidence as owner-operators of certain IVF clinics may show an unusual inclination to maximize the outcomes. IVF comes with its own set of ethical questions.

http://www.wilx.com/content/news/Doctor-accused-of-inseminating-patients-491688201.html

Don't we look for partners with skin in the game?

 ;D ;D ;D 8)
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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Gregmal

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Cigarbutt

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Re: HTL - Hamilton Thorne
« Reply #25 on: October 25, 2018, 04:51:15 PM »
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612258/are-we-designing-inequality-into-our-genes/
It's unclear how this will evolve.
For those interested, most of the expected developments have come using the CRISPR method.

Short video for introduction but there is, out there, a litany of more specialized videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5rUC6NiQfo

The component related to disease cure or improvement is not that controversial.
However, the potential for human "improvement" is.
If unconvinced, just read Huxley's  Brave New World.
https://gutenberg.ca/ebooks/huxleya-bravenewworld/huxleya-bravenewworld-00-h.html

Will need constructive and respectful discussions and maybe will need to suppress the genes that get activated in political discussions. :)

Jurgis

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Re: HTL - Hamilton Thorne
« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2018, 07:14:37 AM »
Will need constructive and respectful discussions and maybe will need to suppress the genes that get activated in political discussions. :)

It sucks that human improvement through genetics is strongly associated with eugenics and Nazis. IMO we could be (way?) farther ahead if the research was not considered third rail and funding-starved. I wonder what will happen when some country (China? Russia? (see Russian approach towards Olympic athletes...)) decides that they are fine with this and start doing it on its population. But that would precipitate even more cries of racism based eugenics (and Nazis).  ::)

But when even progressive (?) people object to GMOs and get them essentially banned through large swaths of the globe, this is tough.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2018, 07:19:27 AM by Jurgis »
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

Gregmal

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Re: HTL - Hamilton Thorne
« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2018, 08:14:56 AM »
I think what's neat is that, like in the article, this may lead to breakthroughs when it comes to solving things like certain cancers/diseases. For decades billions has been poured into R&D. But maybe the biggest piece of the puzzle is screenings like the one mentioned... Very interesting stuff.

Cigarbutt

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Re: HTL - Hamilton Thorne
« Reply #28 on: October 27, 2018, 08:14:01 AM »
The article Gregmal refers to and Jurgis' comments underline some interesting challenges.

Hamilton Thorne is in a market (ART and IVF) that will be hugely affected by technological and regulatory changes. For example, the laser tools and sperm motility analysis software they sell may become obsolete when germ cells harvesting and analysis techniques change. Not for tomorrow but change is coming.  On the regulatory front, the US is a major market for HTL and the market is likely to grow tremendously but the regulatory landscape which is relatively vague and piecemeal will go through sweeping changes and these changes may impact HTL, mostly in defining potentially large opportunities.

If interested:

Gene editing is behind the designer babies theme but the issues raised by genetic engineering are already relevant in today’s world. The distinction between gene selection (through “mating”) and gene editing is much fuzzier than first level thinking would suggest. Gene selection has been used by humans (plants and animals) with amazing results and humans, when selecting a partner with whom to share DNA, apply, to a certain degree, gene selection. But the principles behind choosing a partner for humans have an evolutionary basis and remain poorly understood. Now, a human looking for an offspring can consult a sperm bank and choose a “donor” based on a multitude of factors based on ethnicity, eye color, genetic profile etc as really the only factor off-limit being the identity of the donor.
Example:
https://www.spermbankcalifornia.com/donors/donor_data/bzmpj5xgkt/docs/518MA_level1_app.pdf

If left unchecked, this expansion of genetic selection may give rise to really weird results and gene editing just adds an amazingly powerful level of complexity and risks.

If really interested:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvCYLhu6JoM

Ages ago, Richard Dawkins wrote The Selfish Gene (recommended book by Mr. Munger). In the above video, he does not say if we should or should not embrace this new technology. He’s saying that we should tread carefully if we do.

On the technology aspect, difficult to discount but in a not so distant future (5, 10 or 20 years?), it is likely that ovum sampling, sperm “sampling” and analysis as well as the traditional fusion between the two “sources” of DNA will become optional with the use of alternative stem cells. Theoretically, these alternative stem cells could even be derived from simple skin sampling. In theory, one could produce a very high number of “results” with only a few selected based on a subjective set of criteria (physical appearance, ability in sports, music or Warren-Buffett-like ability to invest). Mind boggling. And these scenarios don’t even include the almost potentially limitless possibilities of gene editing.

Huge potential for terrible unintended consequences and I would tend to put on lid on this Pandora’s box but helpful to consider alternative perspectives.

https://jetpress.org/v27.1/araujo.pdf

Gregmal

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Re: HTL - Hamilton Thorne
« Reply #29 on: October 27, 2018, 12:01:57 PM »
There are certainly risks here. Only time will tell if HTL can navigate them. But one company's risks and regulatory issues are another company's moat...These are called barriers to entry if you are good, and they become excuses if you aren't.