Author Topic: INLOT.AT - Intralot  (Read 140108 times)

tombgrt

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #380 on: October 06, 2016, 07:47:41 AM »
Thank you Nick. I'm disappointed as well but at least they did it. :x

It's interesting to see the classic COBF-effect at work here once again. No one gives a shit anymore and suddenly the stock jumps up 50-60% again.

Hope management is happy with the buyback rule where they can't buy under 1EUR. Any specific reason that they had to do that? The higher it goes, the more they start buying!
« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 07:49:52 AM by tombgrt »


racemize

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #381 on: October 06, 2016, 08:24:51 AM »
I think they were just waiting for me to capitulate.  Sold at the bottom to switch into JPM warrants at the bottom.  Not sure who's winning at the moment though.

investor-man

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #382 on: October 06, 2016, 09:34:36 AM »
I think they were just waiting for me to capitulate.  Sold at the bottom to switch into JPM warrants at the bottom.  Not sure who's winning at the moment though.

heh same except JPM
Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #3 "Never spend more for an acquisition than you have to."

tombgrt

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #383 on: October 06, 2016, 10:53:32 AM »
Can I ask why you guys sold? You might be right regardless as this kind of low liquidity stock could be back at 0.80EUR in a few weeks!

Investor-man, did you also sell Emeco? That topic is dead as well!

Packer16

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #384 on: October 06, 2016, 11:23:38 AM »
Even after this rally, Intralot would have to double to have the same multiple as IGT.  Perhaps EM is tailwind versus a headwind in the past.  We will see.

I still hold Emeco but have added Swick which is a much better company.  The restructure looks like a good deal & a way to consolidate the business & remove the debt theat.  Also a way to right-size the business for the lower level of demand.

Packer

investor-man

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #385 on: October 06, 2016, 09:12:42 PM »
Can I ask why you guys sold? You might be right regardless as this kind of low liquidity stock could be back at 0.80EUR in a few weeks!

Investor-man, did you also sell Emeco? That topic is dead as well!

I sold maybe a month or two ago, and not really for any concrete reason related to the company. I had been holding for maybe 2+ years, and all it had done is lose money for me. GNCMA had made some money for me in the past, and it's gotten cheap again while its story has gotten better, so I shifted the money over there. That's the only trade I've made since January or February when I bought a bunch of oil companies. This tilts my portfolio quite heavily toward oil/commodities (GNCMA being in Alaska too). I hope I don't regret that.
Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #3 "Never spend more for an acquisition than you have to."

racemize

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #386 on: October 07, 2016, 06:16:38 AM »
I sold because the minority payments kept staying high, the margins of the business they are in appear to be shrinking, the silly buy back rule, the catalysts we all hoped for weren't materializing after 2.5 years, and while I understand Packers approach, it is just kind of hard to own something that seems to make no money and not do much about it.

Also, I was very confident that JPM warrants at 14.5 were going to do something, whereas this thing I just couldn't feel good about.

tombgrt

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #387 on: October 13, 2016, 07:19:22 AM »
Even after this rally, Intralot would have to double to have the same multiple as IGT.  Perhaps EM is tailwind versus a headwind in the past.  We will see.

I still hold Emeco but have added Swick which is a much better company.  The restructure looks like a good deal & a way to consolidate the business & remove the debt theat.  Also a way to right-size the business for the lower level of demand.

Packer

Sure Intralot market cap would have to double but would you say they are both of equal quality? IGT seems to be the higher quality business here with serious economies of scale that Intralot can hardly compete against no?

Capex remains higher than anticipated and MI's remain a previous highs so we'll see. I wouldn't feel bad about selling some before even getting close to IV.

Thanks for the light on Emeco as well.

I sold because the minority payments kept staying high, the margins of the business they are in appear to be shrinking, the silly buy back rule, the catalysts we all hoped for weren't materializing after 2.5 years, and while I understand Packers approach, it is just kind of hard to own something that seems to make no money and not do much about it.

Also, I was very confident that JPM warrants at 14.5 were going to do something, whereas this thing I just couldn't feel good about.

Can I ask why you guys sold? You might be right regardless as this kind of low liquidity stock could be back at 0.80EUR in a few weeks!

Investor-man, did you also sell Emeco? That topic is dead as well!

I sold maybe a month or two ago, and not really for any concrete reason related to the company. I had been holding for maybe 2+ years, and all it had done is lose money for me. GNCMA had made some money for me in the past, and it's gotten cheap again while its story has gotten better, so I shifted the money over there. That's the only trade I've made since January or February when I bought a bunch of oil companies. This tilts my portfolio quite heavily toward oil/commodities (GNCMA being in Alaska too). I hope I don't regret that.

Thank you both for your comments, appreciated.


I'm also looking into rolling some in other names and understand the sentiment...


tombgrt

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #388 on: November 28, 2016, 10:45:17 AM »
http://www.intralot.com/content/3765/announcement

68.7mln USD for 80% of around 10-11mln EUR EBITDA/year. Seems ok to me but don't know much about the specific market. Strong current USD/EUR is a nice bonus.

Any specific comments on valuation of the sale?



Packer16

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Re: INLOT.AT - Intralot
« Reply #389 on: November 29, 2016, 05:42:20 AM »
It looks like it validates about a 7 to 7.5x EBITDA valuation for these types of firms.  This is about IGT's multiple also.  So from a 7.1x multiple I get an equity value of Euro 2.7 per share.  Management finally seems to be moving in the direction of value creation with this sale, the debt re-fi and the daily share repurchases.

Packer