Author Topic: JOE - ST. JOE CO  (Read 35335 times)

Junto

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2013, 08:07:03 AM »
I went long JOE this past week for two primary reasons, the sale builds liquidity and investments are managed by Berkowitz. This adds to my prior position that I thought the land value would take too long to realize but the stock was undervalued given the rebound in real estate values.

We'll see if my simple thesis turns out correct.


phil_Buffett

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2013, 08:11:56 AM »
@junto i also went Long last week for the same reason as you mentioned. let us see what will happen :)

ragnarisapirate

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2013, 08:32:18 AM »
Guys, I was at their RE holdings last summer... Einhorn's thesis seems to hold up.

At the community by Port St Joe, it was a wasteland...

gg

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2013, 08:37:22 AM »
Ragnar - I have heard that from a few others as well. Curious if you think Berkowitz is just in too deep with this one, or what he is missing? Or is his time horizon just that much longer than anyone else's?

[I have no position, and never have, in JOE. I do respect most of Berkowitz's investments, though, and have done decently in the positions I've followed him on]

ragnarisapirate

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2013, 08:47:13 AM »
Ragnar - I have heard that from a few others as well. Curious if you think Berkowitz is just in too deep with this one, or what he is missing? Or is his time horizon just that much longer than anyone else's?

[I have no position, and never have, in JOE. I do respect most of Berkowitz's investments, though, and have done decently in the positions I've followed him on]

I have never talked to the guy, so it's hard to tell. I was recently short- so I think he is wrong on the stock.

EDIT: I think that his time horizons are longer than mine- he may quadruple the value of the company, but if it takes him 20 years to do it, I would hope that I can find better places to put my money.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2013, 09:02:19 AM by ragnarisapirate »

ragnarisapirate

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2013, 09:00:54 AM »
As a side note, the company was trying to rent out a lot of the units to generate revenue... The office manager told me that they were full just the last week, and that they had another group coming in the next week and that they would again, be full...

What I found out after going around the the area and talking to people and digging, is that they became a community partner of Blue Skies Ministries (http://www.blueskiesministries.org/testimonials/community-partners/), and were bringing in groups of kids who have various types of cancer. The foundation spent ~101K on retreats a few years ago- don't know how much of that went to JOE, though- if any (http://990s.foundationcenter.org/990_pdf_archive/272/272071359/272071359_201112_990.pdf).

http://vimeo.com/63985283 Here is a slide show.

A noble cause, for sure... But not one that makes the real estate worth much. The ethics of shorting can cloud here.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2013, 09:03:11 AM by ragnarisapirate »

Junto

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #16 on: November 18, 2013, 11:11:16 AM »
Jeff, thanks for letting me know. I know you have a good feel for real estate.

My expectation is that the liquidity boost will probably be redeployed in more efficient manners than years past under the direction of Berkowitz.  It is a jockey play and a potential short squeeze play. Real estate market in Florida has been rebounding over the past 12-24 months and the downside is controllable in my view.  Operations can't get too far away from you, debt is non-existent from a leverage concern, and catalyst is here.





ragnarisapirate

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #17 on: November 18, 2013, 03:04:15 PM »
Here is a hypothetical:

Let's say that their developments are worth the entire amount of all the PP&E on the books. Now, let's say that the land they sold was on the books for nothing and they pay no taxes on the $565mm gain. (I am doing this to create a best case scenario). Book value is ~1.1b and the market cap is ~1.65 making the price to book ~1.5

That's higher than BH, BRK, MKL, LUK, and a ton of others, that are sitting on assets that have proven cash flows. Granted- I think we can all agree that Berkowitz isn't going to sit on the cash forever like a lot of the other cash shells seem to do. I would love to see him make JOE into a holding company conglomerate sort of thing- he could do some really neat things.

As a side note, does anyone find it crazy that BH and BRK are trading for the same price to book?

racemize

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2013, 03:22:55 PM »
As a side note, does anyone find it crazy that BH and BRK are trading for the same price to book?

I guess size/youth?  I'm having trouble seeing how Buffett can pull off 15%+ gains with his size at this point.  Perhaps he can do it though.

FCharlie

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2013, 06:30:03 PM »
Is Berkowitz in full control of JOE's excess cash?