Author Topic: JOE - ST. JOE CO  (Read 34233 times)

DooDiligence

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #70 on: April 26, 2018, 04:04:17 AM »
If the big "problem" with St. Joe is that almost all the land is inland, has no infrastructure, and is undeveloped, that should make them more-or-less immune from a hurricane...

St. Joe has some very nice waterfront / beachfront properties already developed.

The problem is that NWFL has a LOT of really CHEAP waterfront (some see this as an opportunity.)

You can get a smashing pad on the H2O for less than $700K (looking 4 a 2nd home?)

I still believe NWFL will eventually get a bump in values (it's too beautiful not to.)

10 years, 20 years WTFK when the area ever gets re-rated...
There is no beach front acreage according to the report.




https://www.joe.com
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thepupil

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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #72 on: May 18, 2018, 10:02:22 AM »
Land development / MPC companies need to reach a critical mass of development to catalyze value creation. St Joe hasn't yet reached this point, and it's unclear to me what would cause this to change in any reasonable time frame. I think Nitor is too bullish, and Kerrisdale is too bearish. It seems more likely that the company continues to slowly meander along, neither creating or destroying much value.

DooDiligence

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #73 on: May 18, 2018, 01:10:14 PM »
Land development / MPC companies need to reach a critical mass of development to catalyze value creation. St Joe hasn't yet reached this point, and it's unclear to me what would cause this to change in any reasonable time frame. I think Nitor is too bullish, and Kerrisdale is too bearish. It seems more likely that the company continues to slowly meander along, neither creating or destroying much value.

Sounds about right.

I think that buying a nice waterfront home (high & dry if possible) anywhere in NW Florida is a much better investment.
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Gregmal

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #74 on: May 18, 2018, 02:45:36 PM »
Land development / MPC companies need to reach a critical mass of development to catalyze value creation. St Joe hasn't yet reached this point, and it's unclear to me what would cause this to change in any reasonable time frame. I think Nitor is too bullish, and Kerrisdale is too bearish. It seems more likely that the company continues to slowly meander along, neither creating or destroying much value.

Sounds about right.

I think that buying a nice waterfront home (high & dry if possible) anywhere in NW Florida is a much better investment.

I would definitely agree. Buy the actual real estate.

I've looked at JOE for a long time. I actually thought to myself about 6 months ago,"hey JOE is starting to look interesting". That said, it's basically just a larger CTO, with lower quality assets, in a less desirable area, with the same problems, and a decade plus of catching up to do. It's at best just a good trade vehicle here. I don't think you have much downside and you have Berkowitz implementing an aggressive buyback at your back. So trade the fluctuations, which is what I think any competent owner of this(outside of Bruce) is doing. The Kerrisdale thesis is basically just an updated version of Einhorn's short, and the SA article is basically just a wordy reiteration of the hopes and dreams that have gotten Fairholme stuck in quicksand.

Spekulatius

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #75 on: May 18, 2018, 03:05:16 PM »
Land development / MPC companies need to reach a critical mass of development to catalyze value creation. St Joe hasn't yet reached this point, and it's unclear to me what would cause this to change in any reasonable time frame. I think Nitor is too bullish, and Kerrisdale is too bearish. It seems more likely that the company continues to slowly meander along, neither creating or destroying much value.

Sounds about right.


Or buy MLP. Hawaiian Real Estate is red hot in some areas ::)
I think that buying a nice waterfront home (high & dry if possible) anywhere in NW Florida is a much better investment.

I would definitely agree. Buy the actual real estate.

I've looked at JOE for a long time. I actually thought to myself about 6 months ago,"hey JOE is starting to look interesting". That said, it's basically just a larger CTO, with lower quality assets, in a less desirable area, with the same problems, and a decade plus of catching up to do. It's at best just a good trade vehicle here. I don't think you have much downside and you have Berkowitz implementing an aggressive buyback at your back. So trade the fluctuations, which is what I think any competent owner of this(outside of Bruce) is doing. The Kerrisdale thesis is basically just an updated version of Einhorn's short, and the SA article is basically just a wordy reiteration of the hopes and dreams that have gotten Fairholme stuck in quicksand.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

rkbabang

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #76 on: June 13, 2018, 11:29:10 AM »
Kuppy likes JOE

"not every acre is next to million dollar homes.  …A surprising number of them seem to be… It’s already noon and we’ve seen less than one percent of the portfolio… It’s just amazing. The shorts are soooo wrong here."

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2018/06/13/hey-joe-ya-goin-land/

DooDiligence

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #77 on: June 13, 2018, 11:05:29 PM »
Kuppy likes JOE

"not every acre is next to million dollar homes.  …A surprising number of them seem to be… It’s already noon and we’ve seen less than one percent of the portfolio… It’s just amazing. The shorts are soooo wrong here."

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2018/06/13/hey-joe-ya-goin-land/

I should take a drive.
It's only 2 hours away & I want to visit some of the venues along 30A.

https://30a.com
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Saluki

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #78 on: June 14, 2018, 08:55:45 AM »
I have a good sized position in St Joe.

If you invert, and try to find a way to make St Joe go to zero, you can't do it.  They have tons of cash, only 53 employees at the headquarters and land (if you really believe it's all rural timberland) that can be sold off little by little to keep the company afloat for decades. Since it can't go to zero, you can lose some money if it's overpriced, but you have to weigh that vs the upside.

I think Berkowitz has been working on this for a decade, but some of the catalysts are starting to look good. 

JOE donated land for the new airport, which is doing more flights than expected, and they own all the land around it that can be leased for commercial use. I've seen what expanding the Palm Beach airport did to PB County over the past 20 years.  There used to be orange groves in Boynton Beach, now it's all planned communities.   

The Port of St Joe is being reopened and the dredging, drydock lots of the other improvements are being paid for by the BP spill fund. 

Florida is the fastest growing state behind Texas and if you want to live near the water, everything up the Atlantic coast is taken.

I won't sit on this for a decade waiting, but I think if something is going to happen with this stock (in a good way) we will start to see the seedlings coming out of the ground in the next year or two.  If the airport keeps growing, the land around it gets leased to businesses, and the land around the port is leased to companies that rely on it and JOE keeps developing the home sales which make the other lots more valuable the income will go up and one of the rationales for the shorts (that's a lot of market cap for not a lot of earnings) will go away.   
If it's important, do it every day. If it's not important, don't do it at all.  -Dan Gable

SI

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #79 on: June 14, 2018, 09:27:25 AM »
What happens if Berkowitz is a forced seller? Any thoughts on if the 3 SEC attorney that Kerrisdale talked to had it right?