Author Topic: CLNY - Colony Northstar Inc.  (Read 4501 times)

Packer16

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Re: CLNY - Colony Northstar Inc.
« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2018, 01:45:39 PM »
I think the run rate FFO is about $0.88/share/year ($0.22/q = $0.16-$0.01 (gains) + $.05 (hosp seasonality) + $.02 (CDO write-offs)) with no gains going forward so at current price you have 6.4x FFO.  The prefs are still trading at 8% so you get a pref/common spread of 6.3% with no growth.  If they can get some growth from here you can have some nice upside.

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winjitsu

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Re: CLNY - Colony Northstar Inc.
« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2018, 03:09:05 PM »
I think the run rate FFO is about $0.88/share/year ($0.22/q = $0.16-$0.01 (gains) + $.05 (hosp seasonality) + $.02 (CDO write-offs)) with no gains going forward so at current price you have 6.4x FFO.  The prefs are still trading at 8% so you get a pref/common spread of 6.3% with no growth.  If they can get some growth from here you can have some nice upside.

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Packer, curious do you do cap structure "arb" trades [short pref, long equity]?

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: CLNY - Colony Northstar Inc.
« Reply #12 on: April 03, 2018, 05:55:46 PM »
I think the run rate FFO is about $0.88/share/year ($0.22/q = $0.16-$0.01 (gains) + $.05 (hosp seasonality) + $.02 (CDO write-offs)) with no gains going forward so at current price you have 6.4x FFO.  The prefs are still trading at 8% so you get a pref/common spread of 6.3% with no growth.  If they can get some growth from here you can have some nice upside.

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I believe that's the run rate core FFO based on their Q4 results, but didn't the CFO guide that 2018 would be lower when he discussed each segment individually during his part of the call? Ditto for his attempt to quantify 2018's increased interest expenses related to all the floating rate debt.

Packer16

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Re: CLNY - Colony Northstar Inc.
« Reply #13 on: April 03, 2018, 07:17:30 PM »
In the transcript the CFO stated in the Q&A that Q4 was a better proxy due to the lack gains which were not expected going forward.  Later he goes through the adjustments to the 4Q results to get a run rate.  Unless I missed something in the transcript.  Do you know where the comment you refer to is in the dialog/transcript?

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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: CLNY - Colony Northstar Inc.
« Reply #14 on: April 03, 2018, 09:59:29 PM »
In the transcript the CFO stated in the Q&A that Q4 was a better proxy due to the lack gains which were not expected going forward.  Later he goes through the adjustments to the 4Q results to get a run rate.  Unless I missed something in the transcript.  Do you know where the comment you refer to is in the dialog/transcript?

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In the CFO's prepared remarks he went through each of of their 5 operating segments. At the end of his discussion of each segment he gave a 2018 outlook/forecast for that segment. He also guided to $0.07 per share higher full year interest expense, which would need to be factored in since most of the segment guidance was NOI-based.

If you scroll down to the bottom of the Koneko Research post I linked to earlier in this thread there's a (somewhat pixelated) model that IMO does a good job of capturing the guidance that was provided. It's not my model, but the #s I've come up with are similar.

I don't think they've given any guidance for corporate overhead. It's going to be interesting to see how many more cost reductions they can eke out.

Contra123

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Re: CLNY - Colony Northstar Inc.
« Reply #15 on: April 17, 2018, 04:39:40 PM »
FWIW after hearing of this name & seeing the chart (looks like death) and pondering of doing some work on it recently, I spoke with someone who is familiar with the key personalities at the top of this company and some of the assets, and they STRONGLY advised me to steer clear.  I don't know though to what extent this is a widespread perception in the market & thus priced in.
Disclaimer: Regular guy. My takes are reliably bad & I am the ultimate contrarian indicator.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: CLNY - Colony Northstar Inc.
« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2018, 05:56:11 AM »
FWIW after hearing of this name & seeing the chart (looks like death) and pondering of doing some work on it recently, I spoke with someone who is familiar with the key personalities at the top of this company and some of the assets, and they STRONGLY advised me to steer clear.  I don't know though to what extent this is a widespread perception in the market & thus priced in.

Can you be more specific? Did this person give any specific rationale for not liking the management and assets here?