Author Topic: TEVA - Teva Pharmaceuticals  (Read 29126 times)

txvalue

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 40
Re: TEVA - Teva Pharmaceuticals
« Reply #90 on: November 15, 2017, 07:50:26 AM »
A few recent events aside from the flood of downgrades:

- Len Blavatnik has been rumored to be mulling a large investment. Two business news outlets are speculating that it could be a private placement, buying Allegran shares or something else. $3 Billion was the number used in the reports. Teva owns a 20% stake in Clal Biotech which is a subsidiary of a Blavatnik company.

- Allegran announced they will sell a quarter of their Teva shares (25M Shares) in Q1 2018. They currently hold about 10% of the outstanding shares.

- David Abrams formerly of Baupost bought just under 22M shares based on Abrams Cap's latest filing. It is his second largest disclosed filing.


UK

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 36
Re: TEVA - Teva Pharmaceuticals
« Reply #91 on: December 18, 2017, 09:23:36 PM »
http://ir.tevapharm.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=73925&p=irol-presentations

Thank you. So if we talk about the top line and how to assist that and maybe also the execution of the restructuring, then, I think, it's fair to say that I'm traditionally conservative on that. So you  would not find that I would be basing this analysis on a very optimistic outlook for revenues. And I think you will also find that I'm pretty conservative and strict on implementation of restructuring. So it would be very surprising if we did not meet the exact targets in terms of cost reductions. So I think on that, I can tell you, it's conservative on both accounts.

Thank you very much, Chris. Good questions. With regard to the optimization, I can't get into the very specific details, but being an old consultant, I can tell you the 80-20 rule probably applies here as anywhere else. So that basically means that 20% of your products will make up 80% of your profits, that's quite normal for all pharmaceutical companies. And I'm sure it's also the case here. And that is, of course, not where you're looking. You're looking at the tail end where I'm sure that probably, the last 20% of your products might make up 80% of your losing products. And that's why you're going to be looking. So you take it from the tail so to speak, you look at the least profitable products and that's where you're going to start. And I think it happens in all industries, if you have a very broad portfolio. And if nobody is really focused on it, then it's not the most popular thing to do to be looking at the loss-making products and making sure that they get optimized. It's more fun to launch a new product at a high price and make a big splash out of that. So I'm a believer in that you should optimize everything, and that's why I'm also focusing in that end. And hopefully, that is something that can lead to better total profitability of the portfolio. In terms of the assets, then I'm also a believer in keeping all the good products we have. All the good assets we have in terms of actual products we're supplying. So you will not see us doing big asset sales that are linked to pharmaceutical product sales, so to speak, the generic or specialty pharmaceuticals. But you will see us look at sort of side things like, it could be distribution or could be other, sort of, side businesses that are not directly linked into product sales.

Thank you very much. So on the manufacturing footprint, it is, of course, no secret that Teva's manufacturing network is the result of numerous acquisition and mergers of the company over a long period of time. And roughly, today we have around 80 manufacturing sites. Now with my sort of insight into the volumes we do and how we do them and my insight into manufacturing over many years, pharmaceutical manufacturing, if you took it the other way around and said if you start it from scratch, how much would you have? You'll probably have 2 to 4 API sites, and you'll probably have 6 to 8 finished manufacturing sites with different technologies to cover broadly. So there would be sort of -- around sort of 8 to 12 sites all together. Now that's not realistic where we're coming from historically. But it's just to give you a feel for that there's a big difference between the setup we have and what would be the ideal setup. Then, of course, it's also well known that it takes time. It's costly to establish pharmaceutical manufacturing. And therefore, in that total optimization, we will most likely not go from 80 to 12 in the next 5 years, right? But we will move in that direction. So directional, you should expect us probably over the next 10 years to keep on moving in the direction of consolidation, optimization, improvement of our manufacturing network.

Yes. Is that your question? That's great, Tim. So I'll give you my completely subjective take on it, right. I think, it's a 2-year turnaround restructuring. So in 2 years from now, it's going to look good. If we do well, then in 5 years, it's going to look great. But I can guarantee you in 2 years, it's going to look good because we will be handling the debt. We will be handling the operational challenge of declining revenues on COPAXONE and generics. But in the meantime, we will be sort of doing everything to regenerate growth from AUSTEDO, from fremanezumab, from a beta and more-focused generic strategy and execution. And that's why I'm saying that 2 years from now, we will have the cost down, we'll have optimized the operational performance. But the real sort of the big development in a positive sense then -- will then be 2 to 5 years out. So good in 2 years, and hopefully, great in 5 years.

« Last Edit: December 18, 2017, 09:38:23 PM by UK »

John Hjorth

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1836
Re: TEVA - Teva Pharmaceuticals
« Reply #92 on: December 19, 2017, 09:27:18 AM »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

LightWhale

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 79
Re: TEVA - Teva Pharmaceuticals
« Reply #93 on: December 27, 2017, 11:45:22 PM »
Danish [TEVA] CEO rejects Netanyahus begging for dropping redundancies.

Politics is politics - business is business.

They'll have to cut even deeper.  If I recall correctly, Teva has to repay about $9B of debt in the next couple of years, that's about 50% of market cap. And beyond debt, generic pricing will certainly go lower.  In pressing for shorter approval time by the FDA,  generic companies made a classic game theory move, where all participants try to improve their situation at once and therefore everyone is worse off - more drugs coming faster in to the market -> more competition on all fronts -> lower margins.  Copaxone 40mg is quickly losing ground as well, with estimates anywhere from 25%-45% by the end of 2018. The credit markets are already assigning Teva non-investment grade yields. So equity issuance is not unlikely sometimes next year.

IMO, after talking to ex-management, the failing acquisitions came from unrealistic growth targets - doubling revenue every 4Y equates to ~18% annual growth - which attracted a particular shareholder base and put them under the gun. Without acquisitions, they would have witnessed a gradual decay. So the Actavis purchase was dictated by top shareholders with a Wall Street mentality (bonuses in the upstate and nothing to loss in the downstate) that decided to gamble big. 


« Last Edit: December 28, 2017, 04:56:40 AM by LightWhale »

txvalue

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 40
Re: TEVA - Teva Pharmaceuticals
« Reply #94 on: December 29, 2017, 12:37:51 PM »
Everyone thinking this idea will never work while Teva pops from 11 to 19.

Just a reminder that when everyone is saying something won't work the idea is often worth a second look.

I started buying a bit early but kept buying and have now sold 90% of my position for a nice gain. The rest I am going to hold to see how things play out.

They obviously have a painful slog ahead of them to "fix" things, but there is plenty of room for efficencies to be realized.

Edit for clarity: I primarily mean the analysts not those on the board.

« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 12:48:24 PM by txvalue »

black-dog

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 32
Re: TEVA - Teva Pharmaceuticals
« Reply #95 on: March 29, 2018, 02:49:47 PM »
So we're a month and a half after BERK's buy of TEVA hit, and I'm still unable to figure out what their thesis is.

At the time having Cramer slag it ("It is amazing that Warren Buffett goes for what I largely regard as the worst of the worst.") made me want to invest, sure, but besides snarky (if profitable) Cramer-contrarianism, but beyond that -- has anyone read a good case for why they'd make that investment?


kab60

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 744
Re: TEVA - Teva Pharmaceuticals
« Reply #96 on: March 29, 2018, 11:21:11 PM »
Ruthless operator? 3B projected cost savings? Pipeline? :)

DooDiligence

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1397
  • ♪ 🎶 ♫ ♪ 🎶 ♫
Re: TEVA - Teva Pharmaceuticals
« Reply #97 on: April 01, 2018, 08:10:02 AM »
I think that WEB & Mung should to go to lunch with Phillip Frost (could be an interesting conversation.)
(i'm aware that he's not a manager at TEVA anymore. Just saying...)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillip_Frost

I'd like to hear what Chuck would say about him.

As to buying TEVA, WTFK?
« Last Edit: April 01, 2018, 08:24:13 AM by DooDiligence »
(Healthcare 42.9% - ABC BBH CVS DVA EW NVO) | (BRK.B - 14.8%) | (Media & Communication 12.6% - CHTR CMCSA DIS)

(Drinkers & Smokers 13.8% - ABEV MO) | (Auto's & Oil 10.3% - GPC VDE) | (Tech & Comms 5.5% - AAPL SFTBY)

(%'s held @ MV 9/04, excludes $)

[prepared 2 wait]

https://twitter.com/tunawish