Author Topic: DAI.DE - Daimler  (Read 1074 times)

pantsparty

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DAI.DE - Daimler
« on: September 14, 2018, 12:01:21 PM »
Plus side:

Daimler PE is 6.32
Dividend yield of 6.6%
The return looks outstanding to me. Dividend for 5 years [in boom time] has been super positive - between current amount and 66% of the current amount.
Currently investing in self driving cars - these guys are not stuck in the stone age.

Minus side:
In the 2008 crash the price dropped by 50%
I think a crash is coming that will be even bigger than 2008
If a crash happens Daimler profits will be hit hard

What is your take? These fundamentals seem outstanding for such a historically conservative company? Am I missing something?
Am I being apocalyptic about my prediction of a crash?


« Last Edit: September 14, 2018, 02:12:55 PM by Parsad »


Gregmal

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Re: Daimler(DAI.DE) or wait for the crash?
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2018, 12:22:01 PM »
If it's a well run, quality company with staying power, I'd pull the trigger. Not buying stock because one is crippled with fear over the next big one is the most common road taken to the land of mediocre returns.

lucasnascimento

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Re: Daimler(DAI.DE) or wait for the crash?
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2018, 12:48:34 PM »
Plus side:

Daimler PE is 6.32
Dividend yield of 6.6%
The return looks outstanding to me. Dividend for 5 years [in boom time] has been super positive - between current amount and 66% of the current amount.
Currently investing in self driving cars - these guys are not stuck in the stone age.

Minus side:
In the 2008 crash the price dropped by 50%
I think a crash is coming that will be even bigger than 2008
If a crash happens Daimler profits will be hit hard

What is your take? These fundamentals seem outstanding for such a historically conservative company? Am I missing something?
Am I being apocalyptic about my prediction of a crash?


Margins will go down because they will build a lot of EVs with HALF the gross margin of ICEs. First point.

Second point: EV ecosystem risk. Too much competition and uncertainties around adoption (high dependancy on government incentive and technology to make it really cheaper than ICEs).

The bright side is that it is a wonderfully run company.
But I'm ok, don't wanna pick sides in that EV battle.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2018, 12:50:16 PM by lucasnascimento »

Spekulatius

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Re: DAI.DE - Daimler
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2018, 07:44:18 PM »
Quote
Margins will go down because they will build a lot of EVs with HALF the gross margin of ICEs. First point.

How can anyone know what the margins for EV cars are going to look like? FWIW, Daimler also has a very good truck business.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

Gilp

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Re: DAI.DE - Daimler
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2018, 06:40:23 AM »
How they are compared to BMW?
BMW seems like more advanced in EVs and AV technology.

pantsparty

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Re: DAI.DE - Daimler
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2018, 08:24:28 AM »
BMW is close - it seems like the whole industry is sitting on similar fundamentals -> PE ratio of 6 and (BMW dividend is 4.8%)

I think the electric vehicles business is a secondary factor. My perspective is that all of the big manufacturers will get in the game at close to the same time.

Honda, Toyota, VW and Hyundai are all working on battery, and even fuel cell technologies.

The perspective that it will be one technology that cracks the market and makes a single viable product does not seem right to me.
I am not predicting that the industry stays balanced, but I dont think it will go the 'winner takes all' way of normal technology stocks.
As evidence of this, some of the companies are diversifying their green energy move (investing in both fuel cell + battery technology).
It seems to me that the move is inevitable, but it is also gradual.

lucasnascimento

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Re: DAI.DE - Daimler
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2018, 09:58:48 AM »
Quote
Margins will go down because they will build a lot of EVs with HALF the gross margin of ICEs. First point.

How can anyone know what the margins for EV cars are going to look like? FWIW, Daimler also has a very good truck business.

Management said in a conference call. 4Q17 maybe, have to confirm.