Author Topic: KMI - Kinder Morgan  (Read 128236 times)

ZenaidaMacroura

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #110 on: March 11, 2014, 10:06:51 AM »
New writeup on VIC: http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/114749

Can someone here who's a member summarize what the thesis is?


You need an account to be able to view that article.

Yes, I have a guest account so I will be able to see it in about a month and a half but members can already see it.
Does anyone know what's up with the price weakness since January?  I have been looking into this one recently..


yader

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #111 on: March 11, 2014, 10:16:04 AM »
See page 7 "marketplace weakness."  Also tanker revenues/replacement.  El Paso troubles.  Take your pick.
"But you, man of God, flee from all this, and pursue righteousness, godliness, faith, love, endurance and gentleness." 1 Timothy 6:11

Myth465

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #112 on: March 14, 2014, 05:40:31 PM »
I am thinking of buying leaps.
To be honest I dont see great deep value here. Similar to PWE this is a giant liquid name on the radar of a lot of people.
Its going to trade up to $40 within the next 2 years at some point. Leaps cost nothing because of the yield. If it gets to $40 for even a day and you sell you make 2x-3x your money.

The warrants require $45 in the next 3.5 years. I prefer the leap bet, what do you guys think?

gokou3

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #113 on: March 14, 2014, 07:39:27 PM »
I am thinking of buying leaps.
To be honest I dont see great deep value here. Similar to PWE this is a giant liquid name on the radar of a lot of people.
Its going to trade up to $40 within the next 2 years at some point. Leaps cost nothing because of the yield. If it gets to $40 for even a day and you sell you make 2x-3x your money.

The warrants require $45 in the next 3.5 years. I prefer the leap bet, what do you guys think?
This is exactly why I bought the 2016 $30 Calls, first at $5 and second at $3.8.  My experience is that the large cap names tend to be less mis-priced and they swing back to a fair value rather quickly.  Thus, LEAP is a good tool to leverage the reversal of this minor mis-pricing.  In my mind, $40 by LEAP expiry is not a stretch goal as it implies only a 2016 yield of 5% assuming 8% annual dividend growth forecasted by the company.  The company has a long history of over-delivering its promise -- there's a slide in its presentations showing forecasted < actual KMP dividends.




Myth465

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #114 on: March 15, 2014, 07:50:47 AM »
I like what I see so far, quick question for everyone. Why is EPB a seperate vehicle. Seems like it just complicates things. It would make sense if all pipelines were held by one MLP and all other assets the other, but EPB seems like a smaller weaker version of KMR. Why was it split out?

ASTA

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #115 on: March 15, 2014, 07:54:06 AM »
Morningstar has had some commentary lately on KMI and the rest saying KMR is the safest bet. plus Morningstar DividendInvestor decided to sell both Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and Kinder Morgan, Inc

frommi

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #116 on: March 15, 2014, 10:15:18 AM »
Morningstar has had some commentary lately on KMI and the rest saying KMR is the safest bet. plus Morningstar DividendInvestor decided to sell both Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and Kinder Morgan, Inc

Perhaps they know more than we or Mr. Kinder. (I doubt it)
KMI is where Kinder has his money, so this should be the safest bet.

A very good writeup by a forum member (Thx by the way for the work!) : http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/kinder-morgan-inc-kmi-you-sell-ill-buy/

I see the fair value of KMI at 15xFCF (it traded there already one year ago). Currently its at 8.1xFCF. I calculate my forward rate of return with PE/FCF revaluation over 5 years+dividend+dividend growth or PE/FCF revaluation+FCF yield+FCF growth. That comes out at roughly 17%+5%+8% = 30% pa.

Technically it has bounced thursday at a huge support around 30-31$ and finished an ABC-Elliottwave pattern. On friday it approved the pattern and broke the last downtrend. Fundamentals+technicals+Insider buying was my reasoning to take a greater position than normal.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2014, 11:30:46 AM by frommi »

ASTA

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #117 on: March 15, 2014, 10:59:27 AM »
Frommi I Agree :D
Just giving some light and different opinions that's out there plus morning star are not super bad at stock picks :D
Its just that at the moment I might sell bac and buy this its just I have not made that decisions yet.

Zorrofan

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #118 on: March 19, 2014, 01:10:53 PM »
Morningstar has had some commentary lately on KMI and the rest saying KMR is the safest bet. plus Morningstar DividendInvestor decided to sell both Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and Kinder Morgan, Inc

Perhaps they know more than we or Mr. Kinder. (I doubt it)
KMI is where Kinder has his money, so this should be the safest bet.

A very good writeup by a forum member (Thx by the way for the work!) : http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/kinder-morgan-inc-kmi-you-sell-ill-buy/

I see the fair value of KMI at 15xFCF (it traded there already one year ago). Currently its at 8.1xFCF. I calculate my forward rate of return with PE/FCF revaluation over 5 years+dividend+dividend growth or PE/FCF revaluation+FCF yield+FCF growth. That comes out at roughly 17%+5%+8% = 30% pa.

Technically it has bounced thursday at a huge support around 30-31$ and finished an ABC-Elliottwave pattern. On friday it approved the pattern and broke the last downtrend. Fundamentals+technicals+Insider buying was my reasoning to take a greater position than normal.

I finally broke down and sold some SD to buy some KMI. This pretty much guarantees that SD should soar and KMI drop even further.
Your welcome   ;D

cheers
Zorro

prevalou

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Re: KMI - Kinder Morgan
« Reply #119 on: March 19, 2014, 02:05:41 PM »
How do you get kmi at 8,1 free cash flow ? 2014 FCF seems to be $ 1,72