Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 166544 times)

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9871
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Watch this, please (new link)


walkie518

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 150
Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #391 on: December 06, 2017, 05:40:14 PM »
a lot of speculation here

Austria is a very small market with very little room for growth and scaling outside of Austria is difficult minus whatever the underlying value of administrative synergies...and I believe the Swiss team manages the Austrian assets

that said, the stock might be as cheap as it is misunderstood

the play, as I understand it, is the synergies found when collapsing the categories of cable broadband and wireless carrier as different businesses and markets

I think they are on the cusp of material improvements in cash flows

Og

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 260
Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #392 on: December 06, 2017, 06:17:09 PM »
a lot of speculation here

Austria is a very small market with very little room for growth and scaling outside of Austria is difficult minus whatever the underlying value of administrative synergies...and I believe the Swiss team manages the Austrian assets

that said, the stock might be as cheap as it is misunderstood

the play, as I understand it, is the synergies found when collapsing the categories of cable broadband and wireless carrier as different businesses and markets

I think they are on the cusp of material improvements in cash flows

It's cheap but I'd say LiLAC is cheaper.

mwtorock

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 61
Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #393 on: December 07, 2017, 06:03:18 AM »
LiLAC does look interesting, plus Malone bought more of that at higher PPS I heard. Will look more into it.

dwy000

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 457
Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #394 on: December 07, 2017, 06:43:05 AM »
LILAC is definitely cheap but I'm still not sure of the long term impacts of the hurricanes on Puerto Rico.  Is it a temporary rebuild covered by insurance or a larger hit to the long term value of that franchise.

walkie518

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 150
Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #395 on: December 07, 2017, 09:45:33 AM »
LILAC might be cheaper but it's likely not to return until everything gets cleaned up

If any of you follow the reinsurance markets, the clear trend is that natural disasters are not only more severe but more frequent

LILAC may always trade under the European assets because of the additional risk, which in turn might yield greater performance over time

That said, the recent hurricane season has had an impact and the business needs a couple years before material improvements will be felt

I'm of the opinion that Liberty Global will likely see results sooner and that the stock is not priced to reflect

Og

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 260
Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #396 on: December 07, 2017, 11:17:36 AM »
LILAC might be cheaper but it's likely not to return until everything gets cleaned up

If any of you follow the reinsurance markets, the clear trend is that natural disasters are not only more severe but more frequent

LILAC may always trade under the European assets because of the additional risk, which in turn might yield greater performance over time

That said, the recent hurricane season has had an impact and the business needs a couple years before material improvements will be felt

I'm of the opinion that Liberty Global will likely see results sooner and that the stock is not priced to reflect

1. It's actually pretty easy to figure out impact of hurricane. If you take extreme worse case scenarios then see how that impacts intrinsic value.

2. Waiting for things to clear. By the time things get more certain, the market will bid that up.

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9871
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #397 on: December 21, 2017, 11:44:45 AM »
“Liberty Global near deal to sell Austrian $2B to Deutsche Telekom”:

https://www.ft.com/content/6f67630c-9006-3c36-b391-10097fe66aad
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Watch this, please (new link)

forest81

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 15
Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #398 on: December 22, 2017, 04:25:09 AM »
Deal Done. Good price for a business doing $342m a year. Personally think the Vodaphone deal will happen now. Makes so much sense if they can manage to put the businesses together.

https://www.ft.com/content/7bd29f22-bb2d-3684-bccf-083ed1a5d2b0

scorpioncapital

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1511
    • scorpion capital
Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #399 on: December 22, 2017, 04:43:16 AM »
interesting question. Is selling a small business earning 17% worth it to buy a big business earning probably much less? Size vs profitability, is there a clear winner?