Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 187837 times)

vince

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #510 on: October 11, 2018, 10:01:12 AM »
To clarify. My question was thoughts re: ongoing FCF post-divestiture?

Well he didnt adjust residual fcf for normal capex, and some margin enhancing activities in the pipeline.  Any which way you look at it, its cheap.  I dont understand how someone can say its worth 20 billion or less.  What, he cant count?


maybe4less

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #511 on: October 11, 2018, 10:17:34 AM »
To clarify. My question was thoughts re: ongoing FCF post-divestiture?

Well he didnt adjust residual fcf for normal capex, and some margin enhancing activities in the pipeline.  Any which way you look at it, its cheap.  I dont understand how someone can say its worth 20 billion or less.  What, he cant count?

Also funny how it doesn't mention that the fourth market of Remainco, which is as big as the other 3 combined, is projecting strong growth.  I guess that doesn't fit the thesis, so best not to report it?

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #512 on: October 26, 2018, 06:56:36 AM »
Any thoughts on LBTYK impact if hard Brexit were to occur?

fyi - I'm a shareholder. I'm trying to think of ways where I could actually lose principal here.

Spekulatius

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #513 on: October 26, 2018, 03:02:12 PM »
Any thoughts on LBTYK impact if hard Brexit were to occur?

fyi - I'm a shareholder. I'm trying to think of ways where I could actually lose principal here.

Brexit shouldn’t really have a major impact on its operations, since its run country by country. I think the main risk is they the GBP goes down when Britain tumbled into a recession and as someone noted, there is political risk with the Labor party veering left.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

no_free_lunch

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #514 on: October 26, 2018, 04:10:03 PM »
Do those who know this space have an opinion on AT&T?  It's going for something like 9x earnings with a 7% yield.  Kind of cheap unless it is going out of business.  Obviously a very real risk of a value trap but there is some safety via the dividend.

Spekulatius

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #515 on: October 26, 2018, 05:04:15 PM »
Do those who know this space have an opinion on AT&T?  It's going for something like 9x earnings with a 7% yield.  Kind of cheap unless it is going out of business.  Obviously a very real risk of a value trap but there is some safety via the dividend.

My main issues is they they have been terrible operators historically and many of their acquisitions have not performed. Direct TV is a dead man walking in the media landscape. While the TWC assets are pretty high quality, I am no sure they won’t manage to screw them up. I’d rather own something in the media business where management is proven to be strong, even if the stock is a bit more expensive. CMCSA is my main pick with CHTR a distant second.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

vince

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #516 on: November 07, 2018, 01:55:07 PM »
 Just a quick look at qtr 3 results and I think it will go down as a huge opportunity missed for anyone not buying this stock, it actually touched 22.50 or 17 billion and change, lmao, receiving 12-13 billion in cash and ongoing substantial normalized earning power.  On the other hand their product performance still doesn't look impressive and they havent put together a couple of consecutive good qtrs of product, revenue, and earnings growth in years.  They have grown and are still growing every qtr so they deserve a decent multiple but Mike Fries performance has been atrocious imo and they absolutely do not deserve a premium multiple
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 02:22:39 PM by vince »

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #517 on: November 10, 2018, 04:13:02 AM »
Barrons article on Malone holdings today includes interview from him. Note the following on LBTYK:

“The market is skeptical that the deal will close and cautious about what the company will do with the cash if it closes,” Malone says. “Would I buy the stock here? Probably not. If the deal closes, Liberty Global is very cheap. If not, it’s appropriately priced.” Malone thinks the market is too cautious on regulatory approval. He puts an 80% chance of approval.

He sounds a little bit more skeptical of approval than I thought (especially if he’s saying 80% publicly my guess is that he really thinks likelihood of approval to be lower).

I guess another question would be if the deal falls apart how does the entity unlock value going forward.

Spekulatius

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #518 on: November 10, 2018, 06:46:39 AM »
Barrons article on Malone holdings today includes interview from him. Note the following on LBTYK:

“The market is skeptical that the deal will close and cautious about what the company will do with the cash if it closes,” Malone says. “Would I buy the stock here? Probably not. If the deal closes, Liberty Global is very cheap. If not, it’s appropriately priced.” Malone thinks the market is too cautious on regulatory approval. He puts an 80% chance of approval.

He sounds a little bit more skeptical of approval than I thought (especially if he’s saying 80% publicly my guess is that he really thinks likelihood of approval to be lower).

I guess another question would be if the deal falls apart how does the entity unlock value going forward.

Seems more sceptical than I would think. Appropriately priced when the deal doesn’t go through isn’t the consensus here. But then again, we have almost 5x EBITDA/EV leverage and the last quarterly results were nothing to write home about (as usual). I do think it’s cheap, but I also think the chance that the deal does not go though is a bit higher than the consensus here.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

cmlber

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #519 on: November 10, 2018, 07:07:31 AM »
Barrons article on Malone holdings today includes interview from him. Note the following on LBTYK:

“The market is skeptical that the deal will close and cautious about what the company will do with the cash if it closes,” Malone says. “Would I buy the stock here? Probably not. If the deal closes, Liberty Global is very cheap. If not, it’s appropriately priced.” Malone thinks the market is too cautious on regulatory approval. He puts an 80% chance of approval.

He sounds a little bit more skeptical of approval than I thought (especially if he’s saying 80% publicly my guess is that he really thinks likelihood of approval to be lower).

I guess another question would be if the deal falls apart how does the entity unlock value going forward.

Seems more sceptical than I would think. Appropriately priced when the deal doesn’t go through isn’t the consensus here. But then again, we have almost 5x EBITDA/EV leverage and the last quarterly results were nothing to write home about (as usual). I do think it’s cheap, but I also think the chance that the deal does not go though is a bit higher than the consensus here.

I'd take the "probably wouldn't buy" comment with a grain of salt.  I wouldn't expect John Malone, knowing there is a high chance LBTYK will be deploying $10-12 billion in buybacks on a sub $20 billion market cap in the near future, to do anything but talk down the value of the stock.