Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 213961 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #550 on: January 10, 2019, 10:08:16 AM »
Presumably they can jack up prices if currency is devalued. It seems pretty sticky to supply internet bandwidth whatever happens.

I doubt they can raise the prices because the GBP goes down against the USD. Why does it matter for a domestic business? They probably can raise prices if inflation in Britain picks up. The currency risk is real however.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2019, 01:21:56 PM by Spekulatius »
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ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #551 on: January 10, 2019, 10:49:54 AM »
I agree with Spek. If youre a USD investor the investment is worth less but does not explain current price. Id like to see some insider buying at these levels as well.

undervalued

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #552 on: January 10, 2019, 10:52:03 AM »
I agree with Spek. If youre a USD investor the investment is worth less but does not explain current price. Id like to see some insider buying at these levels as well.

In the UBS interview, Fries said he is a net buyer of stock. I don't see him buying any stocks in the open market in the last 12 months? At least not visible from Yahoo Finance.
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khturbo

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #553 on: January 10, 2019, 11:10:43 AM »
On twitter someone mentioned that management might be guiding down expectations for Virgin Media:

https://twitter.com/THValueCap/status/1083428189836402688

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #554 on: January 10, 2019, 01:46:20 PM »
He bought about $3 million on May 30th at ~$29.


I agree with Spek. If you’re a USD investor the investment is worth less but does not explain current price. I’d like to see some insider buying at these levels as well.

In the UBS interview, Fries said he is a net buyer of stock. I don't see him buying any stocks in the open market in the last 12 months? At least not visible from Yahoo Finance.

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #555 on: January 10, 2019, 01:47:42 PM »
On twitter someone mentioned that management might be guiding down expectations for Virgin Media:

https://twitter.com/THValueCap/status/1083428189836402688

Thx for sharing. They don't report until End of Feb / beginning of Mar1. Will be interesting to see if any analyst research notes pick up on it.

maybe4less

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #556 on: January 10, 2019, 01:49:54 PM »
On twitter someone mentioned that management might be guiding down expectations for Virgin Media:

https://twitter.com/THValueCap/status/1083428189836402688

I spoke with IR about this and there are two items that were mentioned: 1) a one-time 28M pound telco tax increase in 2019 and 2) the renewals of the BT Sports and Sky Sports contracts where fees will jump up somewhere in the mid-high single digits.

Doesn't seem so bad...

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #557 on: January 10, 2019, 04:33:12 PM »
On twitter someone mentioned that management might be guiding down expectations for Virgin Media:

https://twitter.com/THValueCap/status/1083428189836402688

I spoke with IR about this and there are two items that were mentioned: 1) a one-time 28M pound telco tax increase in 2019 and 2) the renewals of the BT Sports and Sky Sports contracts where fees will jump up somewhere in the mid-high single digits.

Doesn't seem so bad...

1) Is that 1 time $28 million extra payment or a 1-time increase in perpetuity -- if it's the latter that's worth a few hundred million reduction in value and 2) any idea how much they were paying for BT Sports and Sky Sports?

Thx.

maybe4less

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #558 on: January 10, 2019, 09:59:53 PM »
On twitter someone mentioned that management might be guiding down expectations for Virgin Media:

https://twitter.com/THValueCap/status/1083428189836402688

I spoke with IR about this and there are two items that were mentioned: 1) a one-time 28M pound telco tax increase in 2019 and 2) the renewals of the BT Sports and Sky Sports contracts where fees will jump up somewhere in the mid-high single digits.

Doesn't seem so bad...

1) Is that 1 time $28 million extra payment or a 1-time increase in perpetuity -- if it's the latter that's worth a few hundred million reduction in value and 2) any idea how much they were paying for BT Sports and Sky Sports?

Thx.

It's a little complicated, but basically 3 years ago the British government revalued all networks in the country to fair market value in order to update assessments of this tax, which is basically like a property tax. After the updated valuation exercise, Virgin Media owed 140M more pounds each year in tax.

However, they didn't have to pay the increase in year 1, it is phased in over five years. Last year the increase was 18M pounds and this year it was 28M pounds for whatever reason. So a "surprise" increase of 8M more pounds.

We have 42M pounds of increases to go over the next two years and then the government isn't schedule to revalue the network for another five years.

This has actually all been outlined in the fixed income filings for Virgin, so not sure why it is such a surprise.

Not sure how much they've been paying BT and Sky for the sports, but this also should be a surprise as these contracts come up for renewal on a schedule and typically increase by similar amounts.

I guess this is a long way of saying I don't think this is the reason that the stock has declined.
 

Sunrider

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #559 on: January 20, 2019, 08:06:47 AM »
Apologies if this has been covered at length much earlier, I only re-read the discussion back to October.

I've had a brief look at the last Q and the results announcement and at today's market cap of ca. $17bn, I see this is essentially as a Greenblat stub. If the $10bn Vodafone cash receipts go purely to paying down debt, then stub value should increase by ca. 58%, which ignores the other ca. $8bn debt, which seem to be moved with the sold entities. Putting that in, the stub value should increase by a shade over a 100%.

I understand that they are highly levered like all Malone companies, and I've not read enough of the Q to figure out the $EBITDA that goes with the sold businesses, vs. what remains (I think the announcement mentioned it's ca. 28% of OCF).

Yet, presuming the other markets don't turn into a complete dog's breakfast, this seems very very cheap.

What am I getting wrong/missing here?

Thank you.

« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 08:32:35 AM by Sunrider »