Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 232434 times)

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #610 on: May 21, 2019, 06:33:22 PM »
WayWordCloud - thx for the response.

--Do you think that LBTYA might buy O2 UK from Telefonica? (I believe you mentioned that last year).
--Any thoughts on capex detail or FCF?

It will be interesting to see where the stock is in the coming quarters post-close of transaction and they resume share buybacks.


ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #611 on: May 24, 2019, 06:24:14 AM »
BRUSSELS, May 24 (Reuters) - EU antitrust regulators have extended by two weeks to July 23 their investigation into Vodafone's(VOD)$22 billion bid for Liberty Global's(LBTYA) cable networks in Germany and central Europe, according to a filing on the European Commission website.

The EU competition enforcer decline to comment on the reason for the extension. Vodafone(VOD), the world's second-largest mobile operator said discussions with the Commission were ongoing.

Earlier this month, Vodafone(VOD) offered to grant rival Telefonica Deutschland access to its enlarged high-speed broadband network to allay competition concerns about the deal..

However, rivals and customers have provided negative feedback to the Commission, suggesting Vodafone(VOD) may need to improve its proposal in order to win regulatory approval for the deal, sources said. (Reporting by Foo Yun Chee, editing by Louise Heavens)

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #612 on: May 24, 2019, 07:38:29 AM »
Is the issue that Vodafone has a business that would add more power with liberty's business? I mean if coca cola bought the asset would there be any issues ? (Not that they would )

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #613 on: May 25, 2019, 12:11:54 PM »
Any thoughts on whether this is more positive or negative? On one hand, easier and cheaper for lbtya to expand. On the other hand, it’s cheaper and easier for competitors to expand than it was previously - so more competition for lbtya. Also all of the connections that lbtya has laid down directly are worth less now because could have piggybacked off of Openreach (British Telecom).

More people getting better broadband thanks to Ofcom rules
24 May 2019
Ultrafast broadband can be five times more reliable than older, standard broadband, and fast enough to allow lots of people in the same home to stream films in ultra-high definition at the same time, or make seamless video calls.

Thousands of homes and businesses now have access to this technology thanks to Ofcom rules designed to make it easier and more affordable to roll out better broadband networks.

Last year we set new rules to support investment in fibre networks. Under these rules, Openreach, which maintains the UK’s main broadband network, must let rival companies use its telegraph poles and underground ducts to lay their own fibre cables to residential customers. This access can cut the upfront cost of building full-fibre networks by around half.

Several firms – including Virgin Media, TalkTalk and CityFibre – are using these rules to connect thousands of homes and businesses to faster, more reliable broadband.

For example, Virgin Media rolled out full fibre in Pontyclun, Wales, by using Openreach’s ducts. This follows a trial last year in Lincolnshire, where Virgin Media used an Openreach duct to cut the amount of time and money it took lay its cables.

Meanwhile, TalkTalk has been trialling the use of ducts and poles as it seeks to roll out full fibre to three million premises by 2025. Between them, competing providers are using around 12,000 Openreach telegraph poles and 2,500 km of underground duct.

More people across the UK are set to benefit from Ofcom’s rules. Broadband provider toob recently secured funding for a full-fibre rollout programme, and expects to use Openreach’s infrastructure to achieve this.

Hyperoptic also has plans to use them as it rolls out over 5,000 km of fibre in order to reach five million premises by 2025, while providers Glide and NextGen Access have used them as part of their full-fibre rollout.

Ofcom has been looking at ways we could further improve access to Openreach’s infrastructure, to help strengthen the business case for companies laying new fibre cables. Today, we have announced a package of measures that would give these companies greater flexibility when building their networks.

In future, our measures would mean that they will be able to use Openreach’s ducts and poles for a wider variety of business cases, increasing the scope for them to invest in cutting-edge, ultrafast broadband.

Alan Bristow, Build Director for South of England and South Wales at Virgin Media, said: “We will consider using their ducts again so that more areas of the UK get a much-deserved broadband boost from Virgin Media.”

Jonathan Oxley, Ofcom’s Competition Group Director, said: “The amount of internet data used by people in the UK is expanding by around half every year. So, we’ll need faster, more reliable connections to our homes and offices.

“Our measures are designed to support the UK’s digital future by providing investment certainty for continued competitive investment in fibre and 5G networks across the country.”

« Last Edit: May 26, 2019, 05:29:46 AM by ander »

Munger_Disciple

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #614 on: May 25, 2019, 04:22:49 PM »
I  don't understand Virgin Media's advantage in UK over competition if anyone has access to the conduit where they can put their own fiber. If the Vodaphone deal goes through, Liberty Global will mainly be a UK based cable company.

WayWardCloud

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #615 on: May 27, 2019, 01:44:54 PM »
WayWordCloud - thx for the response.

--Do you think that LBTYA might buy O2 UK from Telefonica? (I believe you mentioned that last year).
--Any thoughts on capex detail or FCF?

It will be interesting to see where the stock is in the coming quarters post-close of transaction and they resume share buybacks.

Obviously pure speculation, but since you ask...
I expect Virgin to finally follow the "new cable playbook", a.k.a. Charter's method.

Rutledge essentially took Malone's old cable playbook and added the twist of actually caring about the consumer's happiness because investing in it leads to better growth, not so much through extra new adds but through reducing churn. It turns out this method over the long run actually pays better than milking every cent out of the trapped consumers while doing the least amount of effort possible (which is why cable providers used to be so hated by Americans).

Mike Fries is super competitive. I recall him mentioning Charter out of the blue during a couple calls and saying they're doing just as good even though nobody asked. Remember all those people seat at common board meetings and Malone is playing King Solomon in the middle deciding which one of the brothers are good boys. For example, he publicly congratulated Maffei on structuring the Formula One deal "in such a smart way" who won against Fries who was competing to buy it. So the pressure is there.

Up until a year or two ago, during every call, Fries would ONLY talk numbers, maybe because he had so many different businesses under LBTYA. He seemed completely disconnected from the ground operations, which is probably what led to failures such as Switzerland: it took them to be losing market share insanely fast to finally come up with a big plan to : bring 1Gig, bring an actually unlimited MVNO service, bring 4k boxes, add expensive exclusive sports content. Anyone could have told you those things were needed years ago. They took their customers for granted and fell asleep at the wheel. The limits of the old cable method showed so strongly with Switzerland because obviously their customers are rich so price is less of a differentiating factor, they need to be delighted, not given something good enough, but I believe the same can happen anywhere in Europe because there is usually much more overbuild (aka a choice between providers) than in the US.

For a while now, around when LILA got spinned I think, I've noticed him sounding more and more like other cable CEOs and emphasizing the customer. What new box they where getting, how good the WIFI signal was, could they easily access Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc. They chose Balan Nair to lead LILA, the Chief Technology Officer, not the COO, not a CEO of one of the countries, someone whose job was literally the customer's experience (the terminal box). They now just kicked the head of Virgin out and replaced him with Lutz Schuller from Germany who sounds like he's on Rutledge's "new playbook" 100%. Virgin has a better network than BT they should be crushing them and so far they are not which is such a waste. It's like if Charter was keeping its speeds low and its customer service terrible in houses where they compete with ATT instead of utilizing their superior product to offer things that copper just can't replicate. Stupid. Remember maybe 6 months ago when Virgin recognized a small additional loss and they explained it was due to them not charging anymore some customers an extra $2 per month for using a debit/credit card to pay online?! That was insane and a real eye opener to me. Fries had been following the "old" cable playbook and treating his clients like shit squeezing maximum EBITDA each quarter instead of thinking long term.

So long story short: I expect Virgin to start treating its customers well and push the speeds to 1Gig with great set top boxes while keeping their MVNO the way it is. As long as it's top notch for the customer (it seems like there's no restrictions) they are in no hurry to buy O2 or anybody else (just like Charter with Verizon). Even though Fries has guided for decreased capex and increased FCF at Virgin I actually see them as only in the 4th or 5th inning of their network upgrade and on top of it doing new builds through Lightning so I don't know how a substantial decline in intensity could happen for the next 3 or so years. Which is fine. Look at the chart price for Charter during their integration phase.


« Last Edit: May 27, 2019, 03:42:58 PM by WayWardCloud »

vince

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #616 on: May 27, 2019, 02:17:11 PM »
WayWordCloud - thx for the response.

--Do you think that LBTYA might buy O2 UK from Telefonica? (I believe you mentioned that last year).
--Any thoughts on capex detail or FCF?

It will be interesting to see where the stock is in the coming quarters post-close of transaction and they resume share buybacks.

Obviously pure speculation, but since you ask...
I expect Virgin to finally follow the "new cable playbook", a.k.a. Charter's method.

Rutledge essentially took Malone's old cable playbook and added the twist of actually caring about the consumer's happiness because investing in it leads to better growth, not so much through extra new adds but through reducing churn. It turns out this method over the long run actually pays better than milking every cent out of the trapped consumers while doing the least amount of effort possible (which is why cable providers used to be so hated by Americans).

Mike Fries is super competitive. I recall him mentioning Charter out of the blue during a couple calls and saying they're doing just as good even though nobody asked. Remember all those people seat at common board meetings and Malone is playing King Solomon in the middle deciding which one of the brothers are good boys. For example, he publicly congratulated Maffei on structuring the Formula One deal "in such a smart way" he won against Fries who was competing to buy it. So the pressure is there.

Up until a year or two ago, during every call, Fries would ONLY talk numbers, maybe because he had so many different businesses under LBTYA. He seemed completely disconnected from the ground operations, which is probably what led to failures such as Switzerland: it took them to be losing market share insanely fast to finally come up with a big plan to : bring 1Gig, bring an actually unlimited MVNO service, bring 4k boxes, add expensive exclusive sports content. Anyone could have told you those things were needed years ago. They took their customers for granted and fell asleep at the wheel. The limits of the old cable method showed so strongly with Switzerland because obviously their customers are rich so price is less of a differentiating factor, they need to be delighted, not given something good enough, but I believe the same can happen anywhere in Europe because there is usually much more overbuild (aka a choice between providers) than in the US.

For a while now, around when LILA got spinned I think, I've noticed him sounding more and more like other cable CEOs and emphasizing the customer. What new box they where getting, how good the WIFI signal was, could they easily access Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc. They chose Balan Nair to lead LILA, the Chief Technology Officer, not the COO, not a CEO of one of the countries, someone whose job was literally the customer's experience (the terminal box). They now just kicked the head of Virgin out and replaced him with Lutz Schuller from Germany who sounds like he's on Rutledge's "new playbook" 100%. Virgin has a better network than BT they should be crushing them and so far they are not which is such a waste. It's like if Charter was keeping its speeds low and its customer service terrible in houses where they compete with ATT instead of utilizing their superior product to offer things that copper just can't replicate. Stupid. Remember maybe 6 months ago when Virgin recognized a small additional loss and they explained it was due to them not charging anymore some customers an extra $2 per month for using a debit/credit card to pay online?! That was insane and a real eye opener to me. Fries had been following the "old" cable playbook and treating his clients like shit squeezing maximum EBITDA each quarter instead of thinking long term.

So long story short: I expect Virgin to start treating its customers well and push the speeds to 1Gig with great set top boxes while keeping their MVNO the way it is. As long as it's top notch for the customer (it seems like there's no restrictions) they are in no hurry to buy O2 or anybody else (just like Charter with Verizon). Even though Fries has guided for decreased capex and increased FCF at Virgin I actually see them as only in the 4th or 5th inning of their network upgrade and on top of it doing new builds through Lightning so I don't know how a substantial decline in intensity could happen for the next 3 or so years. Which is fine. Look at the chart price for Charter during their integration phase.

Great post....Fries absolutely screwed it up.  Just look at how far behind they are in their commercial business relative to their American peers, it's embarrassing!!!

rogermunibond

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #617 on: June 05, 2019, 08:31:48 AM »
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/912958/000114420419029487/tv520778-f1.htm

Millicom files for offering as the Swedish investment group Kinnevik exits

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #618 on: June 05, 2019, 06:36:25 PM »
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/912958/000114420419029487/tv520778-f1.htm

Millicom files for offering as the Swedish investment group Kinnevik exits

That's much more relevant to Liberty Latin America than it is to Liberty Global.

Value92

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #619 on: June 11, 2019, 10:03:58 PM »
No question this assets is worth much more than what it is selling for in today’s market.

My issue with Malone is that he might be screwing minority shareholders. I still haven’t finished looking at possible questionable transactions. So far I have the the 1st Liberty Media Split, the UGC transaction in 2005 and the C&W deal. Are there other deals I should look at?

To be honest Malone reminds me much more of Henry Singelton than WEB does. He is extremely rational and will take advantage of any market opportunity there is. Does anybody know if WEB ever invested with Singelton? This might help determine if Malone entities are investable for me (if you can trust him, I don’t want him as my partner).