Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 225839 times)

John Hjorth

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #620 on: June 12, 2019, 01:28:39 AM »
Value92,

Recently Nicke posted this.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai


skanjete

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cameronfen

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #622 on: June 28, 2019, 04:16:10 PM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-regulators-clear-vodafones-liberty-161331416.html
I didn't want to really discuss this while I was buying but I doubt most of us will not move the market.  Is this not easy money if this goes through?  Thoughts on accumulating some before the official announcement and buying more/selling when/if it is confirmed?   

WayWardCloud

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #623 on: June 29, 2019, 12:16:55 AM »
I mostly agree with you Cameron.
As a mitigant, the Switzerland deal seems less certain than the Vodafone one because some shareholders of Sunrise might still oppose it and if that does happen then Liberty has one more big challenge to fix.
Also Brexit.
Also their debt has ballooned to well over 5X EBITDA.

It's honestly a poorly managed company that's doing a brilliant escape + deleveraging thanks to the huge discrepancy between the private and public value of their assets. If it all works out, and I believe it's likely to, the numbers are obviously great no matter how you slice it. But I also understand why lots of people are staying on the side and I don't think of it as a "no-brainer".

(LBTYA is about 8% of my portfolio)

« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 12:19:22 AM by WayWardCloud »

cameronfen

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #624 on: June 29, 2019, 10:46:42 AM »
I mostly agree with you Cameron.
As a mitigant, the Switzerland deal seems less certain than the Vodafone one because some shareholders of Sunrise might still oppose it and if that does happen then Liberty has one more big challenge to fix.
Also Brexit.
Also their debt has ballooned to well over 5X EBITDA.

It's honestly a poorly managed company that's doing a brilliant escape + deleveraging thanks to the huge discrepancy between the private and public value of their assets. If it all works out, and I believe it's likely to, the numbers are obviously great no matter how you slice it. But I also understand why lots of people are staying on the side and I don't think of it as a "no-brainer".

(LBTYA is about 8% of my portfolio)

Sure that's good to know.  If the Vodafone deal goes through net debt will be way below 5X Ebitda.  If for some reason Reuters is wrong, I'm likely to sell anyways. 

WayWardCloud

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #625 on: June 29, 2019, 11:32:18 PM »
If both transactions go through and if all the money goes to debt repayment I have what's left over trading at an EV/EBITDA of 6.43 with a debt/EBITDA of 3.32.
I fully expect them to maintain a bit of a higher leverage and commit some of the cash to share repurchase but I don't know just how much.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 11:40:43 PM by WayWardCloud »

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #626 on: July 01, 2019, 12:28:02 AM »
15.5 percent yield on a low leverage , almost single asset utility like stock is not bad at all, with pricing power. Cable has been able to raise prices equal to or greater than inflation. Long term, 5g is a dangerous potential competitor but it's not anything to rush getting worried about yet.

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #627 on: July 01, 2019, 04:17:10 PM »

skanjete

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #628 on: July 18, 2019, 02:10:04 AM »
It's official :
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-liberty-global-m-a-vodafone-group-eu/vodafone-wins-eu-approval-for-liberty-global-deal-idUSKCN1UD114


Let's see what Fries intends to do with the money.
First thing should be a serious buy back I think.

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #629 on: July 18, 2019, 02:20:21 AM »
First think stop losing money on lightning in UK.
Second, 25-25 buyback and debt payback.
50% left for acquisitions.
However if they think something good will come along in the LBTYA parent vehicle then I would remove the 25% debt payback unless interest rates begin to ratchet up which doesn't seem yet the case.
I would not buyback too much shares because remember, investment is laying out capital today to earn more money tomorrow.
If you return the money, you will just need to raise it again if you want to invest in a new investment or business.
However if it alot below cash valuation of the shares then it would make sense to buy some back.
Money used to buyback shares is gone forever unless you do an equity raise and you see how those tend to crash stock prices. Better keep a good chunk of the cash.