Author Topic: LBTYA - Liberty Global  (Read 241276 times)

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #710 on: October 04, 2019, 12:10:36 AM »
The question who is liberty going to offload this to if it does not pass? To be stuck with an asset...you could wind it down. Or ask for a discount. Maybe liberty will offer a last minute discount. But fries ego seems to suggest he will spin it as a great business we'll just keep it if we can't sell it.


Value92

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #711 on: October 04, 2019, 12:52:40 AM »
The question who is liberty going to offload this to if it does not pass? To be stuck with an asset...you could wind it down. Or ask for a discount. Maybe liberty will offer a last minute discount. But fries ego seems to suggest he will spin it as a great business we'll just keep it if we can't sell it.

Salt Mobile???

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #712 on: October 04, 2019, 08:38:03 AM »
Do they have the resources to buy it? Their shareholders may be spooked if sunrise backs out on questions of debt or profitability.

kab60

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #713 on: October 09, 2019, 11:58:29 PM »
Haven't followed closely but got this from Berenberg (sellside) today;

Sunrise shareholders will vote on the UPC transaction on 23 October at an
EGM. The UPC deal enhances Sunrise’s already strong competitive
positioning versus Swisscom but does so at the cost of higher volatility and
an unbalanced near to mid-term risk/reward scenario, but with the
potential for higher returns than the standalone case in the long term.
Investors who, after all, look to telecoms for yield and capital preservation,
have to choose between the “steady Eddie” safety of Sunrise standalone
over “the volatile but potentially brilliant if all goes well” appeal of the newco.
The “nays” to the deal appear to have the numbers. Egos aside, common
sense would dictate that if the deal is rejected, Liberty Global would accept
a slightly lower price for UPC to pass its Swiss headache over to an eager
Sunrise management – an alternative deal with Salt is just fantasy in our view.

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #714 on: October 10, 2019, 06:48:39 AM »
Article 1:

Proxy adviser ISS has recommended shareholders vote against a rights issue Sunrise Communications will propose to shareholders to finance its planned 6.3 billion Swiss franc ($6.35 billion) takeover of cable operator UPC from Liberty Global(LBTYA), sources told Reuters.

"On balance, Sunrise appears to be overpaying for assets in a transaction that appears to have debatable long-term strategic merit. As such, shareholders are recommended to vote against the transaction at this time," ISS said in a document, according to the sources.

Article 2:
“Our valuation analysis suggests a fair value range of 4.6 – 5.2 billion Swiss francs (enterprise value) for UPC on a standalone basis if its performance were in line with that of peer cable operators,” ISS said, adding that operational difficulties including declining revenues made the 6.3 billion franc consideration appear excessive.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 06:54:16 AM by ander »

scorpioncapital

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #715 on: October 10, 2019, 07:16:12 AM »
While upc is a small part of liberty, it sends a bad sign if an asset can only be sold at a discount . At the lower price is liberty making a profit or perhaps best they can hope for is to dump the asset without a big loss and move on.

ander

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #716 on: October 10, 2019, 09:31:30 AM »
"Our valuation analysis suggests a fair value range of 4.6 – 5.2 billion Swiss francs (enterprise value) for UPC on a standalone basis if its performance were in line with that of peer cable operators"

Not a loss since even at that price it's multiples (I believe still in excess of 3x) of what they put in including dividends, etc.
But my question to the quote above would be is ISS accounting for the synergies?

dwy000

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #717 on: October 10, 2019, 11:32:31 AM »
"Our valuation analysis suggests a fair value range of 4.6 – 5.2 billion Swiss francs (enterprise value) for UPC on a standalone basis if its performance were in line with that of peer cable operators"

Not a loss since even at that price it's multiples (I believe still in excess of 3x) of what they put in including dividends, etc.
But my question to the quote above would be is ISS accounting for the synergies?

It's the comment from ISS "appears to have debatable long-term strategic merit" that I find most confusing.  Are they questioning the logic of combining cable/broadband with wireless?  That strategy underpins most telecom M&A over the past 3 years.

WayWardCloud

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #718 on: October 10, 2019, 11:44:23 AM »
"Our valuation analysis suggests a fair value range of 4.6 – 5.2 billion Swiss francs (enterprise value) for UPC on a standalone basis if its performance were in line with that of peer cable operators"

Not a loss since even at that price it's multiples (I believe still in excess of 3x) of what they put in including dividends, etc.
But my question to the quote above would be is ISS accounting for the synergies?

It's the comment from ISS "appears to have debatable long-term strategic merit" that I find most confusing.  Are they questioning the logic of combining cable/broadband with wireless?  That strategy underpins most telecom M&A over the past 3 years.

They also said:

"Long-term benefits of the 6.3B Swiss-franc deal aren't obvious, ISS says, "as cable’s competitiveness vis-a-vis fibre and 5G is questionable," even if there's a strategic advantage in the short to mid-term."

Both statements lead me to believe they clearly don't know the first thing about this industry.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 11:47:06 AM by WayWardCloud »

Munger_Disciple

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Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Reply #719 on: October 10, 2019, 12:54:06 PM »
"Our valuation analysis suggests a fair value range of 4.6 – 5.2 billion Swiss francs (enterprise value) for UPC on a standalone basis if its performance were in line with that of peer cable operators"

Not a loss since even at that price it's multiples (I believe still in excess of 3x) of what they put in including dividends, etc.
But my question to the quote above would be is ISS accounting for the synergies?

It's the comment from ISS "appears to have debatable long-term strategic merit" that I find most confusing.  Are they questioning the logic of combining cable/broadband with wireless?  That strategy underpins most telecom M&A over the past 3 years.

They also said:

"Long-term benefits of the 6.3B Swiss-franc deal aren't obvious, ISS says, "as cable’s competitiveness vis-a-vis fibre and 5G is questionable," even if there's a strategic advantage in the short to mid-term."

Both statements lead me to believe they clearly don't know the first thing about this industry.

+1