Author Topic: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker  (Read 99955 times)

spark411

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #250 on: December 28, 2017, 07:11:10 AM »
Puerto Rico's numbers are 29% off and are temporary.  When the infrastructure is rebuilt, I'm betting earnings will be at least previous levels.   Also, C&W numbers are accelerating even with the Hurricane impacts.  I think the C&W numbers will see continued growth with the new CEO.  The new CEO will have an easier time leveraging Liberty Global's strengths i.e. tap into institutional knowledge via relationships already built at Liberty Global, content, etc.

The beauty of this business is that even with minimal revenue growth, this stock can outperform.  I think the key is the gap between the yield and the debt cost.   As long as there is a spread, the team can re-invest the spreads into new products, geographies, or acquisitions.    The key strengths are access to content, lower cost of capital, and management team institutional knowledge with a clear playbook.   Lilak can use these strengths to buy competitors with 10x EBITDA (going rate for deals) and boost earnings to continue to keep the spread between yield and debt going. 

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marazul

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #251 on: December 28, 2017, 07:18:00 AM »
One major issue is that LILA has subpar assets in some important markets. Too much mobile exposure in competitive markets and a high % of the wireline plant is copper based. Also, the company is overlevered. These issues were presnet before the unfortunate events at PR.

no_free_lunch

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #252 on: December 28, 2017, 07:25:51 AM »
I see C&W revenue as being up 2% y/y, chile is up 4-5% which is decent.  However they are pumping a lot into capex to get those numbers.  It just concerns me to focus on acquisitions when it doesn't seem that appealing on an organic basis.  If C&W starts putting out better results I would reconsider.

fisch777

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #253 on: December 28, 2017, 08:38:09 AM »
The problem with roll-up strategy is your equity currency is not very valuable due to C&W deal disaster, so it is a self-inflicted and perpetuating problem.   They can't just borrow another turn or two with current leverage levels and stale cash flow growth.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #254 on: December 28, 2017, 10:43:04 AM »
The problem with roll-up strategy is your equity currency is not very valuable due to C&W deal disaster, so it is a self-inflicted and perpetuating problem.   They can't just borrow another turn or two with current leverage levels and stale cash flow growth.

+1 to this comment. In my opinion acquisitions are the last thing LILA should be thinking about right now.

I also think it's important not to gloss over the tragic situation that Puerto Rico currently finds itself in. Pre-hurricane, PR was in the midst of a decade-long recession. Post-hurricane, hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans, many of them of prime working age, have already left the island for the mainland US. Many of them may never come back.


Spekulatius

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #255 on: December 29, 2017, 04:10:37 AM »
The problem with roll-up strategy is your equity currency is not very valuable due to C&W deal disaster, so it is a self-inflicted and perpetuating problem.   They can't just borrow another turn or two with current leverage levels and stale cash flow growth.

+1 to this comment. In my opinion acquisitions are the last thing LILA should be thinking about right now.

I also think it's important not to gloss over the tragic situation that Puerto Rico currently finds itself in. Pre-hurricane, PR was in the midst of a decade-long recession. Post-hurricane, hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans, many of them of prime working age, have already left the island for the mainland US. Many of them may never come back.

I agree with above. PR may never come back fully. Also, when your stock is trading at 7x EBITDA doing acquisitions at 10x EBITDA does not make any sense. That is what LILA did with the CW acquisition a while ago and a big reason why the stock is in the doghouse.
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Jurgis

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #256 on: January 05, 2018, 09:19:14 AM »
What's with LILA showing up twice in Fido portfolio for last couple of days (there's LILA and there's G5480U138 which is LILA too)?

I'm happy with a quick double  :P but what the...?
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globalfinancepartners

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #257 on: January 05, 2018, 09:23:12 AM »
Its because it isn't a tracking stock anymore.  Will take a few days for all the brokers to sort it out and stop double counting it.

What's with LILA showing up twice in Fido portfolio for last couple of days (there's LILA and there's G5480U138 which is LILA too)?

I'm happy with a quick double  :P but what the...?

Shooter MacGavin

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #258 on: January 24, 2018, 01:03:29 PM »
anyone know why LILAK is up 7.5% today? 

Liberty

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