Author Topic: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker  (Read 98795 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #240 on: November 03, 2017, 03:58:18 AM »
LILA’s numbers are pretty crappy too, so maybe another reason to sell. Negative FCF this year, infrastructure destroyed in Puerto Rico where the outlook was bad to begin with. Legacy Lila operation in Chile do just fine. That merger with C&W destroyed a lot of value for LILa shareholders. I own a few shares, but I am not tempted to add.
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Liberty

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no_free_lunch

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #242 on: December 08, 2017, 11:07:10 AM »
Looking at the most recent quarter numbers it looks like revenue was flat even without puerto rico.  Is this not concerning given how much capex there is?  They are in negative fcf due to the capex so it is hard to justify that if you aren't getting any growth. 

Liberty

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spark411

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #244 on: December 14, 2017, 04:16:53 AM »
There is a theory that Lilak is trading at a tracking stock discount.    Anyone have any thoughts what the premium will be once this transitions from tracking stock to directly traded stock?    If anyone has any links as to what happens in the 1-3 months afterwards a tracking stock becomes a trading stock, would appreciate it.   I'm wondering if the price goes down first because there are owners who want to sell out.   Thanks!


http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/12-12-LiLAC-Split-Off-Press-Release-FINAL.pdf

Liberty

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #245 on: December 14, 2017, 06:53:17 AM »
There is a theory that Lilak is trading at a tracking stock discount.    Anyone have any thoughts what the premium will be once this transitions from tracking stock to directly traded stock?    If anyone has any links as to what happens in the 1-3 months afterwards a tracking stock becomes a trading stock, would appreciate it.   I'm wondering if the price goes down first because there are owners who want to sell out.   Thanks!


http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press-release/12-12-LiLAC-Split-Off-Press-Release-FINAL.pdf

I'm not sure... I kind of feel like the fact that they've announced the change for a long time would've led to the market pricing that in (forward-looking..). It's not like it'll happen as a surprise and suddenly it'll gap up. Though I suppose on the other hand, maybe some investors are prevented by their mandate from owning odd instruments like tracking stocks.

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Liberty

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Gordon Gecko

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #247 on: December 22, 2017, 07:28:45 AM »
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570585/000157058517000417/0001570585-17-000417-index.htm

Seems positive. Complete waiver of leverage covenants through YE18, w/ smaller than expected equity injection. Only seem to be giving up distributions over the same period, which, face it, weren't really all that likely.

Really seems like one of the more interesting ideas out there now. Management/Board alignment is finally on your side and Digicel is going full restructuring mode. If you just look at the negative FCF and the flat rev/margins, I think you miss the highly competitive pricing environment. And there's now better cure to low prices than low prices. LILAK's already showing pricing power in Jamaica, Panama may be going through some structural changes to consolidate the industry, business friendly political group running Chile, Barbados minority buy-in looks very accretive, and now it looks like LPR won't be a big drag on capital deployment. Knock on wood.

spark411

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #248 on: December 28, 2017, 05:58:00 AM »



Sometimes quantitative factors lead to big opportunities.  I think if one uses common sense qualitative factors, I think it leads to big opportunities.

Does LILAK offer the perfect opportunity to go big in a portfolio?

1.   Have earnings that are low short term and have value reflecting the short-term earnings versus the stabilized run rate. 
        For example, have a hurricane depress earnings for short term.
2.   Have in place management that has know how, sources of suppliers, sources of money, and a clear playbook to grow
        that’s been field tested in another region over 20 years.
3.   Have insiders buying the stock.
4.   Have the parent company change it’s mind from not buying more shares to buying more even at the expense of the
        parent company shares being depressed.
5.   Have parent company send top officials to lead the subsidiary.
6.   Have a clear catalyst in changing from tracking stock to direct stock.
7.   Have shares drop more than 50% from highs from 2 years ago?
8.   Have opportunities to grow in services/products offered to existing customer sand have geographies to grow organically
        or via acquisitions for at least 10 years.
9.   Have small market cap that has room to grow.

I think the answer is yes.  Please comment on reasons why anyone thinks otherwise.

no_free_lunch

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Re: LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker
« Reply #249 on: December 28, 2017, 06:25:36 AM »
Points 2-9 are valid but I think it comes down to point 1.  Why do you think that the earnings are temporarily depressed?  I see very stale results even without puerto rico.   The thesis is that these markets have low penetration and lila should therefore be able to increase revenue.  How come organic revenue isn't going gangbusters?