LILA - Liberty Global Latin America tracker

[Shooter MacGavin]

why'd the stock jump ~6% today?

[cameronfen]

why'd the stock jump ~6% today?

My thought was that people are expecting earnings to be good after the hurricane basically wiped out 2017, and so are playing the earnings bounce, but I have no idea. 

[spark411]

http://www.lla.com/pdf/press-release/LLA-Earnings-Release-Q1-2018.pdf

Anyone have thoughts?

[Spekulatius]

http://www.lla.com/pdf/press-release/LLA-Earnings-Release-Q1-2018.pdf

Anyone have thoughts?

The results just suck - OCF down, FCF negative, leverage worrisome. I didn’t expect good results and sold my starter position today and swapped the proceeds into CHTR. Much better business, similar valuation, better financed and much easier to understand.

I do think that LILA will show better metrics once PR is recovered, but it won’t be enough of a difference to turn this around.

[jgyetzer]

I agree that the consolidated numbers are a bummer, but if you look at each segment it looks like they are growing subscribers and revenues while investing heavily in C&W and VTR.  PR, while still negative compared to last year has dramatically improved since Q4 2017 which seems to suggest an inflection.  Short term there may be some pain, but then again it’s not priced with high expectations...

[cameronfen]

http://www.lla.com/pdf/press-release/LLA-Earnings-Release-Q1-2018.pdf

Anyone have thoughts?

The results just suck - OCF down, FCF negative, leverage worrisome. I didn’t expect good results and sold my starter position today and swapped the proceeds into CHTR. Much better business, similar valuation, better financed and much easier to understand.

I do think that LILA will show better metrics once PR is recovered, but it won’t be enough of a difference to turn this around.

I didn't think it was all that bad.  Not much management can do to stop customers from leaving in Puerto Rico.  The area sucks now.  People have higher priorities than buying cable.  VTR and C & W grew 1% QoQ which is not great but not bad.  1.2 billion in ocf suggests a slightly higher leverage ratio than before, but not different than Charters at 5x.  Loss of mobile subs is worrying as mobile and cable are synergistic and you dont get the benfits if you cant scale the mobile.  I think at some point PR turns around and that adds a significant boost to ocf and its currently trading below Charters 9x ebitda before PR. 

[Og]

You think it’s going to be a 0?

http://www.lla.com/pdf/press-release/LLA-Earnings-Release-Q1-2018.pdf

Anyone have thoughts?

The results just suck - OCF down, FCF negative, leverage worrisome. I didn’t expect good results and sold my starter position today and swapped the proceeds into CHTR. Much better business, similar valuation, better financed and much easier to understand.

I do think that LILA will show better metrics once PR is recovered, but it won’t be enough of a difference to turn this around.

[Spekulatius]

You think it’s going to be a 0?

http://www.lla.com/pdf/press-release/LLA-Earnings-Release-Q1-2018.pdf

Anyone have thoughts?

The results just suck - OCF down, FCF negative, leverage worrisome. I didn’t expect good results and sold my starter position today and swapped the proceeds into CHTR. Much better business, similar valuation, better financed and much easier to understand.

I do think that LILA will show better metrics once PR is recovered, but it won’t be enough of a difference to turn this around.

No, it’s not a zero, just not a good investment. The best part of thr business is what used to be in the original LILA, thr chilean cable assets, the C&W assets are just mediocre.

CHTR is just a better business, and valuation is almost thr same now. I think CHTR leverage is 4.5x, same than LILA net leverage, by CHTR is in thr US and has a more stable business, which means that their cost of debt should be less. LILA has currency risk and interest rates in local currencies are much higher than in the US, or they can take on debt USD and risk currency losses, unless they hedge them out, which also costs money.

[cameronfen]

You think it’s going to be a 0?

http://www.lla.com/pdf/press-release/LLA-Earnings-Release-Q1-2018.pdf

Anyone have thoughts?

The results just suck - OCF down, FCF negative, leverage worrisome. I didn’t expect good results and sold my starter position today and swapped the proceeds into CHTR. Much better business, similar valuation, better financed and much easier to understand.

I do think that LILA will show better metrics once PR is recovered, but it won’t be enough of a difference to turn this around.

No, it’s not a zero, just not a good investment. The best part of thr business is what used to be in the original LILA, thr chilean cable assets, the C&W assets are just mediocre.

CHTR is just a better business, and valuation is almost thr same now. I think CHTR leverage is 4.5x, same than LILA net leverage, by CHTR is in thr US and has a more stable business, which means that their cost of debt should be less. LILA has currency risk and interest rates in local currencies are much higher than in the US, or they can take on debt USD and risk currency losses, unless they hedge them out, which also costs money.

Maybe there are holes in my argument, but I disagree.  VTR is number two in cable and number 7 or 8 in mobile in Chile.  Telefonica is number 1 in both.  With the convergence of mobile and cable this will cause problems in the future for players that arent telefonica. Especially with wireless broadband and small cells.  Why do you think VTR is trying to create a mobile business?  Vtr is probably best positioned other than telefonica, but American Movil is an 50 billion dollar company in chile and so is telefonica.  Basically all of Latin America is split between these two giants and AMX especially has both massive broadband (75 million RGUs) and massive mobile (300 million subs) operations all over mexico to argentina.  The only place where you dont really have to compete with either juggernaut very much is the caribbean, in part due to the shitty geography maybe (islands).  The main competitor here is digitel, which sort of like telephonica (but worse), is highly leveraged and you may be able to buy assets for cheap at the next downturn. Maybe you can complain about price and you certainly can over pay for quality assets, but this was probably the best stategic  decision for a  company in an oligopoly position. 

[spark411]

cameronfen-Great points.  I never saw the business from that strategic perspective.

I agree overall the numbers look good.  The decrease was mainly due to Puerto Rico. I thought the big news is that PR is almost 100% back online.  Thus the numbers should improve quickly.   Stock was whacked about 20% because the market seemed to think PR will never comp back.  I hope the combination of good OCF in areas other than PR and PR getting back on-line will bring the stock back up.

I love Vodafone looking to buy Liberty Global assets to do quadplay in Europe.   It seems that Malone is trying to do Quadplay from day one in Latin America.  Hope this means good asset appreciation long term.