Author Topic: LUK - Leucadia  (Read 409419 times)

link01

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2011, 04:13:21 AM »
Quote
Based on their apparent track record of success, I have respect for the LUK management team but I do find it odd they have gotten themselves knee deep with this company (a second tier IB without a stable source of financing like JPM, BAC, WFC?), unless their intention has long been to ultimately acquire JEF...so obviously the cheaper the better for LUK if they want to own this platform in entirety....

actually, jef's financing has has historically been financed by more long term debt & less of a reliance on short term vs their bigger brethren in the i-bank industry, which explains why the were much less exposed to the decimating losses of 08-09.

i doubt c&s have any desire to enter that industry via acquisition of jef or anyone else. like web i've seen them (figuratively) hold their noses when talking about the insane compensation structure prevailing there. the do seem to like & admire handler tho.

as far as this point goes: <<6) the size of the company's direct exposure to European banks (the initial hesitation/stuttering was humorous).>> one of their analysts has this very interestiong take:

<<The most scathing report describing in exquisite detail the coming financial apocalypse in Europe comes not from some fringe blogger or soundbite striving politician, but from perpetual bulge bracket wannabe, Jefferies and specifically its chief market strategist David Zervos. "The bottom line is that it looks like a Lehman like event is about to be unleashed on Europe WITHOUT an effective TARP like structure fully in place. Now maybe, just maybe, they can do what the US did and build one on the fly - wiping out a few institutions and then using an expanded EFSF/Eurobond structure to prevent systemic collapse. But politically that is increasingly feeling like a long shot. Rather it looks like we will get 17 TARPs - one for each country. That is going to require a US style socialization of each banking system - with many WAMUs, Wachovias, AIGs and IndyMacs along the way. The road map for Europe is still 2008 in the US, with the end game a country by country socialization of their commercial banks. The fact is that the Germans are NOT going to pay for pan European structure to recap French and Italian banks - even though it is probably a more cost effective solution for both the German banks and taxpayers....Expect a massive policy response in Europe and a move towards financial market nationlaization that will make the US experience look like a walk in the park. " Must read for anyone who wants a glimpse of the endgame. Oh, good luck China. You'll need it.

Full Report:>>

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jefferies-describes-endgame-europe-finished


Poor Charlie

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2011, 08:41:55 PM »
Beerbaron,

Don't know if my PM went through, I was trying to send it from an Ipad.  In an case my email is: whr981@gmail.com

Thanks again!

scorpioncapital

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2011, 09:46:03 PM »
The first decade of letters 78 to 88 are actually quite boring and mundane looking. This is what I find extremely fascinating on two fronts. Obviously, the first being the evolution of something so mundane into something so successful. The second, however, is more subtle, which is that it is often hard to tell from early beginnings which capital allocators will be great. The signs are not overt, it's not like they all started writing folksy letters from the start. Likewise, it's amazing how a string of mundane deals can lead to a good end result. You have to be smart, but you don't have to go for the home-run, a series of well planned, under the radar deals can do the trick. Just like you don't need home-runs to win in baseball, just a series of constant walks, runs, or whatever it takes to get on base over and over.

dwy000

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2011, 12:35:06 AM »
In addition to the price of JEF, I would guess that the other name position that's weighing on LUK is Fortescue.  They've lightened up on the position over the past few quarters but at June 30 it was worth $1.06bn.  As of today it's worth closer to $750m. 

Poor Charlie

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2011, 07:16:06 PM »
The first decade of letters 78 to 88 are actually quite boring and mundane looking. This is what I find extremely fascinating on two fronts. Obviously, the first being the evolution of something so mundane into something so successful. The second, however, is more subtle, which is that it is often hard to tell from early beginnings which capital allocators will be great. The signs are not overt, it's not like they all started writing folksy letters from the start. Likewise, it's amazing how a string of mundane deals can lead to a good end result. You have to be smart, but you don't have to go for the home-run, a series of well planned, under the radar deals can do the trick. Just like you don't need home-runs to win in baseball, just a series of constant walks, runs, or whatever it takes to get on base over and over.



I'm looking forward to reading the letters Scorpion.  Some of the comments they made re the .com years were priceless.

They certainly have had their fair share of home runs too.  Barbados Power & Light was incredible; I'd love to know how they found it.  FMG wasn't bad either...

My concern over LUK is with some of the newer projects (energy & pharma).  These guys are clearly capable in deep value turnarounds but VC is a totally different animal imho.

Liberty

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #25 on: September 30, 2011, 01:19:53 PM »
Hitting new 52wk lows.. Wish I understood that company better, because they sure have a great reputation. But I still don't feel like I understand enough what they own to buy some.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Watch this, please

tombgrt

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2011, 07:41:39 AM »
Why is LUK down 8% because JEF is crashing? Their market cap is $6b and they have a 30+% in JEF and some bonds? At day low it seemed like the market already thought is was worth nothing.

edit: Bought a very small position.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2011, 08:00:40 AM by tombgrt »

Liberty

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #27 on: November 23, 2011, 11:31:34 AM »
Hitting 52wk lows.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Watch this, please

rranjan

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #28 on: November 23, 2011, 11:36:15 AM »
Hitting 52wk lows.

Established medium size postion. I will make it large size if it drops more.

tombgrt

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Re: LUK - Leucadia
« Reply #29 on: November 23, 2011, 11:49:16 AM »
I bought more today as well. Should be under BV, around 0.9x maybe.