LVLT - Level 3

[Ben Graham]

Streaming Live HD video is a carriers business.To deliver live content from one end, the origin, to the other end, the screen, requires a End to End world class fiber optic network to deliver flawlessly to any screen in the world. Level 3 is the only network in the world that can handle the load of delivering live streaming HD video. Therefore, James Crowe keeps saying we enjoy a unique position.

Also, Level 3 has the ability to connect 100's of thousands of buildings and traffic aggregation points, that a middleman like Akamai never can do. Akamai is in the little league compared to the superior network of LVLT. In the long run Akamai is in the buggy whip business.Level 3 can deliver live content directly from the venue to the screen and in route to the screen, capture and store the live video in a data center for later Video on demand viewing.

So, think ahead. The future is live streaming video over the Internet.

EDIT: Examlpe - the Super Bowl streamed live over the Internet.

[Ben Graham]

brker_guy,

Will the value of RF spectrum be diluted if this comes into play?


Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) Systems are one of the most
 
promising technologies available to increase the range and efficiency
 
of spectrum dependent services. DSA systems locate
 
unused spectrum, and organize their users to operate within the
 
spectrum they have identified. DSA systems ensure no interference
 
to other users by scanning and sensing the environment, as
 
the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) NeXt
 
Generation spectrum sharing field tests have established, or
 
through pre-existing knowledge, such as the geolocation database
 
proposed for unlicensed access to TV band white space, or a combination
 
of both.


http://www.newamerica.net/files/nafmigration/Marshall_IssueBrief25_DSA.pdf


EDIT: This is why Prem Watsa wants to get involed with RIMM big time.


 

[ValueCarl]

Value investor group Southeastern Management, aka, Longleaf Capital, reported their more than forty four million share holdings at 20.8 percent of shares outstanding today.

My apologies to Brker_guy and the board for being somewhat dyslexic recently. I was confusing his reference as well as Ben Graham's to the Thornberg buys with Vanguard!  I am a battle torn and worn LVLT soldier. Did you CATCH that DCG? 


http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794323/000080798512000009/lvlt13g12.txt

Item 4. Ownership:

     (a). Amount Beneficially Owned: (At 12/31/11)
          44,150,956 shares.  This amount includes 4,137,849 in shares
          underlying convertible bonds.

     (b). Percent of Class:

          20.8 %

          Above percentage is based on 211,786,908 shares of Common
          Stock outstanding.

[Ben Graham]

If Level 3 made a deal to buy the long haul business of  Sprint and, through Sprint, with ClearWire (CLWR). The possibility of Level 3 gaining access to the 'last mile', by engaging in a deal whereby they would end up 'owning' rights to spectrum and towers, along with their worldwide glass network, sparks all sorts of thinking.

Prem Watsa has ideas also, and is thinking ahead by his doubling of share count in RIMM. Prem's new devices will allow spectrum to be spliced with Microsoft's Spark. Just what the telecom industry needs to ignite an explosion!
_______________________________________________________________________________

                                      Spectrum sharing system, called Spark

With the increased demands for wireless spectrum, dynamic spectrum sharing is emerging as an important and powerful concept. Most research in this domain is being conducted in design of cognitive radios and on specific PHY and MAC layer challenges associated with them. However, for a dynamic spectrum sharing architecture to be viable, research is needed to resolve many other challenges, e.g., in the context of real-time spectrum management and enforcement. This paper is the first to present a study of some such important architectural considerations, driven by our ongoing design and implementation of a spectrum sharing system, called Spark. We propose some
promising approaches to address these challenges, and enumerate the need and opportunities for significant future research in this domain.

http://research.microsoft.com/pubs/101646/hotmobile06.pdf
_______________________________________________________________________________

Does Prem Watsa get it?  Does he see the future unfolding?  Demand for bandwidth is insatiable!

* Nearly every home becomes a broadcast studio, and each subscriber a content provider. People of all ages are using the Internet to upload photos and videos, sharing them with friends, family and the public.

The growth in wireless traffic is just too fast, and simply reallocating spectrum is not a long-term solution. We also need to focus on spectrum utilization if we’re going to meaningfully address the issue in the long run.

Dynamic spectrum access (DSA) solutions will help wireless carriers and other users optimize this valuable resource while giving consumers, first responders and soldiers the bandwidth they desire.

http://gigaom.com/broadband/will-spectrum-scarcity-sink-wireless-access-to-content-in-the-cloud/

_______________________________________________________________________________

Footnote: For all my fellow LVLT foot soldiers. Remember our fearless leader's battle cry!

"Liquid resources and strong financial backing are scarce and valuable assets in today's telecommunications world," said Buffett in a prepared statement at the time of the investment. "Level 3 has both. Coupled with the management of Walter Scott and Jim Crowe, in
whom I have great confidence, Level 3 is well-equipped to seize important opportunities that are likely to develop in the communications industry."

Buffett investment

http://www.cwalocal4250.org/news/binarydata/Part%20Two.pdf    (Page 5)

[Ben Graham]

I captured this "golden nugget" from Brker_guy at another venue. If nuggets like this keep appearing from SPECTRUM CLOUDS, how far away from the mother of BROADBAND GOLD MINES can we be? I suppose this article could fall underneath the CLWR or QCOM threads as well, but I am more of a Big (3) shareholder versus those others.   

As for how FAR AWAY such last mile throughput on mobile devices will create broadband nirvana for backbone owners, call Mohnish Pabrai when he is not in closed meetings with Charles T. Munger, and ask him WHEN! 

http://gigaom.com/broadband/qualcomm-ericsson-just-brought-mobile-calls-into-the-ip-age/

Qualcomm and Ericsson revealed on Thursday that they have successfully passed a voice call from an LTE network to a 3G one, paving the way for mobile carriers to begin migrating their voice traffic onto all-IP 4G networks. That’s a big deal because the sooner carriers move their voice and SMS services to LTE, the sooner they can shut down their pokey 2G and 3G networks and establish a mobile broadband continuum across the airwaves.
   

ValueCarl,

The above highlighted comment in red, made by you is very intriguing. You seem to have the ability to follow Charlie Munger very closely, so much so that you can meet him face to face, like in an "end to end" kind of way. You must rely on a very good social "network", to make that happen. Are you really WEB?

You have said that you go to Pasadena, California to attend Munger meetings. Maybe one of these days you might like to drop by the office of Li Lu, who manages Himalaya Capital. 


301 E. Colorado Blvd Suite 501
Pasadena, California, 91101-1919
United States

Li Lu only manages 3 accounts totaling an estimated $446,000,000 and has an average total assets under management of $11,976,305,013

http://investment-advisors.findthebest.com/l/35782/Himalaya-Capital


Carl, please ask him to show you all the LVLT notes & bonds and shares he holds for WEB & Charlie.   

 

[Ben Graham]

I captured this "golden nugget" from Brker_guy at another venue. If nuggets like this keep appearing from SPECTRUM CLOUDS, how far away from the mother of BROADBAND GOLD MINES can we be? I suppose this article could fall underneath the CLWR or QCOM threads as well, but I am more of a Big (3) shareholder versus those others.   

As for how FAR AWAY such last mile throughput on mobile devices will create broadband nirvana for backbone owners, call Mohnish Pabrai when he is not in closed meetings with Charles T. Munger, and ask him WHEN! 

http://gigaom.com/broadband/qualcomm-ericsson-just-brought-mobile-calls-into-the-ip-age/

Qualcomm and Ericsson revealed on Thursday that they have successfully passed a voice call from an LTE network to a 3G one, paving the way for mobile carriers to begin migrating their voice traffic onto all-IP 4G networks. That’s a big deal because the sooner carriers move their voice and SMS services to LTE, the sooner they can shut down their pokey 2G and 3G networks and establish a mobile broadband continuum across the airwaves.
   

"I captured this "golden nugget" from Brker_guy at another venue."  Just a minor correction. I actually emailed ValueCarl the article from my iPhone and asked him to posted for me. 

BTW: ValueCarl, no one is mentioning the fact openly that Thornburg bought about 1.9MIL shares of LVLT last quarter for us.  It's nice to be buying with good company. 

Brker_guy,

Thank you for being a vanguard. Your tremendous effort to spearhead and focus our attention on what is important to make the Internet complete, is very much appreciated. I'd like to add this as well.

On this same note in regards to SRVCC (Single Radio Voice Call Continuity). It is a step in the right direction, thus eliminating the need for smartphones to use separate LTE and 3G radios and modems.

However, the next gaint step after these baby steps is dynamic spectrum sharing - Dynamic spectrum access (DSA) solutions that will help wireless carriers and other users optimize this valuable resource.
_______________________________________________________________________________

ONE BABY STEP:

The next step in the 4G LTE voice roadmap, SRVCC follows the commercial launch of circuit-switched fallback technology (CSFB) on smartphones in 2011. CSFB allows a single radio in the handset to dynamically switch from an LTE data connection to a 3G connection when the user needs to make or receive a call.
 
SRVCC support enables a single radio in the handset to execute a seamless handover of a voice call from an LTE network to a 3G network. Furthermore, SRVCC and CSFB allow both LTE and 3G network connections to be supported on a single chip, eliminating the need for smartphones to use separate LTE and 3G radios and modems.

http://mybroadband.co.za/news/cellular/42861-qualcomm-demos-first-voip-over-lte-call-with-single-radio.html
_______________________________________________________________________________

TWO GIANT STEPS: Microsoft & Prem Watsa Get It!!!!!


1) Spectrum sharing system, called Spark

With the increased demands for wireless spectrum, dynamic spectrum sharing is emerging as an important and powerful concept. Most research in this domain is being conducted in design of cognitive radios and on specific PHY and MAC layer challenges associated with them. However, for a dynamic spectrum sharing architecture to be viable, research is needed to resolve many other challenges, e.g., in the context of real-time spectrum management and enforcement. This paper is the first to present a study of some such important architectural considerations, driven by our ongoing design and implementation of a spectrum sharing system, called Spark. We propose some
promising approaches to address these challenges, and enumerate the need and opportunities for significant future research in this domain.

http://research.microsoft.com/pubs/101646/hotmobile06.pdf


2) Dync spectrum access (DSA)

Solutions will help wireless carriers and other users optimize this valuable resource while giving consumers, first responders and soldiers the bandwidth they desire.

http://gigaom.com/broadband/will-spectrum-scarcity-sink-wireless-access-to-content-in-the-cloud/

Discloser:  I just throw ideas out there for the pros like bker_guy & ValueCarl to chew on. 

Disclaimer: I got this message that was emailed from Bill Gates to my Microsoft Skype phone. (VoIP)   
 

Please see enclosed Attachment below. THIRD STEP

[ValueCarl]

Coinstar is finally partnering with another LVLT partner, Verizon, in order to stream online videos. It has been years since I recommended these RED BOXES follow the broadband road for their customers to the Level 3 Network. Can or when will Level 3 be announced as part of their cdn choice? If not, I pity the QUALITY of the STREAM for those using Coinstar's service.   

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/02/07/coinstar-takes-on-netflix-shares-soar-after-earnings/

Now you can add Coinstar (NASDAQ: CSTR), deployers of the ubiquitious Redbox DVD vending kiosks, to the list with its newly announced partnership with Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) to begin streaming media online.

Whether or not this is a game-changer for Netflix remains to be seen. As of Monday’s close, shares of both Netflix and Coinstar were moving strongly higher, with NFLX up more than 2% and CSTR gaining more than 1% (even Verizon, which has sold off sharply since the beginning of the year, edged higher by three-quarters of a percent), the consensus opinion on the deal is somewhere between “this won’t hurt Netflix” to “this won’t hurt Netflix, yet.”

[ValueCarl]

Brker_guy sent me this article from the field. Lightsquared is pulling out all the stops heading into the last hour.

http://gigaom.com/broadband/in-a-suspect-move-lightsquared-calls-for-gps-design-standards/

LightSquared is right in principle. If the FCC is serious about finding new spectrum for mobile broadband it has to protect license holders. In order to prep the L-band for 4G, the government needs to create and enforce standards on the GPS devices to prevent them from stepping outside of their bands.

But in this case, LightSquared is using principle as cudgel to beat back the commercial GPS lobby so it can deploy its LTE network before it runs out of funding. Drawing attention to receiver design paints the GPS industry as the bad guy and makes LightSquared out to be the victim of its selfishness and neglect. That’s a perception LightSquared would love to amplify as Congress focuses its attention on the controversy.

Interference in the L-band is a big issue that will take years to fix. On the one hand, LightSquared is making the perfectly reasonable argument that the problem can be solved through government-imposed standards. But in the next breath, it seems to be denying that the problem exists at all, demanding permission to launch its network regardless of what chaos ensues with GPS. The would-be carrier probably doesn’t care one whit if such standards are ever adopted. In fact, LightSquared is asking the FCC rule that GPS receivers aren’t entitled to protection from interference, which would make standards moot. LightSquared just wants to get its network built as quickly as and by any means possible.

[Sportgamma]

Ben Graham has provides us with a lot of info as to why one should buy LVTL (conformation bias?).

We know that
- LVLT has the lowest cost structure
- Demand will rise rapidly
- Scale will create efficiencies
- Cost of assets are in the region of 37 B.

However, the reason why LVLT was able to acquire those assets at such discounts was because of liquidity issues.  Assets worth 37B generating a negative cash flow of 100M won´t get their full value if things go sour. With annual interest payments of 600M and 450M in cash, a holder of common stock is carrying a lot of downside risk.

Watsa and co. are clever guys, that´s why their in convertible bonds.

The question is indeed when will things reach a turning point...

[Santayana]

I think Prem owns a lot more common than the convertibles at this point.