Author Topic: MDXG - MiMedx Group  (Read 7857 times)

Gregmal

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #30 on: January 08, 2019, 06:56:14 AM »
Out today, some real research, basically supporting some of the drivers I mentioned.

https://www.presciencepoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Prescience_Point-MiMedx_MDXG-Long.pdf

I no longer have a position, but it was so obvious after the delisting that at this point, the stupid retail money was on the short side. Had good laughs reading about people who bought puts and then couldn't get a bid when wanting to sell them. The share price has now more than doubled following "the worst auditor resignation ever!!!", which was supposed to immediately take the company to 0.

Will be interesting to see this continue to play out.


LongHaul

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #31 on: January 09, 2019, 06:21:34 AM »
Isolated comment:

The flaw in the writeup is that they are looking at Free Cash flow Conversion when a big chunk of the FCF
came from share based comp addbacks.   Assuming they pay cash to employees vs the share comp then much of the FCF disappears. 

I have no idea what long run profitability here could be.

Free Speech

I think free speech on ideas is important whether you are long or short and Greg's post was fine.
This is a marketplace of ideas and you are free to choose to discard any and all. 
Censoring disconfirming opinions is a horrible practice.  It is bad when when the longs try to do it to the shorts and vice versa.  Ultimately the truth comes out on companies no matter what anyone owns or says.

And by they way, I have noticed that given human nature for all of us it is best to pay particular attention to disconfirming evidence.  Too many smart people just brush stuff under the mental rug and they eventually pay for it.



John Hjorth

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #32 on: January 09, 2019, 01:46:44 PM »
LongHaul,

Personally, I think that you somehow misinterpreted the posts in this topic related to Greg's actions with this stock. To me, - what you & I experienced here, - was actually exactly the outcome of free speech. That said, push back can get pretty dense at times. Greg seems to be up to it. So, all OK.

Only Greg is responsible to himself [and perhaps others with capital under his control] about which buttons he's pressing on his keyboard, and when.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 02:24:00 PM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
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Gregmal

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #33 on: January 09, 2019, 05:05:18 PM »
First off, I agree with your assessment Longhaul, and yes, good observation about SBC.

Second, while unorthodox, pushback is one of the most valuable, parts of the due diligence process. Bruce Berkowitz labels this aggressive pushing of contrarian points "trying to kill the thesis". That said, there are a ton of sensitive babies here. I try to pushback, sometimes even with the counterpoints on positions I like, mainly because there are so many excuse making circle jerks going on here with the pop stocks like FB, FFH(although here we've had some good quality talks lately) and AAPL, just to name of few of the current ones. The investment process is different for all, but I mean, I thought my 2018 returns were kind of meh, then I see what others here are posting and it just kind of confirmed what I've long thought about a lot of the people here...I'll leave it at that.

Third, this thread was amusing to me. Specifically Alwaysdrawing. I don't normally call people out on a personal level, but what a jackass. He's playing the concerned citizen, getting all outraged that I suggest an idea(a profitable one, which is a rarity on this site of late), ridiculing me and making embellished claims, some of which are a matter of opinion, and stating them as fact, and most egregiously, accusing ME of pumping my position, when I think my behavior in terms of posting my exact to the moment entries and exits here, was as transparent as I've seen on this site. And then weeks later, in a different thread, this jackass lets it slip he's just another short here. So in other words he was pumping HIS POSITON in a dishonest and nontransparent way. Good lord. I've already made my money here.... So I wish him the best.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 05:19:06 PM by Gregmal »

John Hjorth

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #34 on: January 09, 2019, 06:28:03 PM »
Greg,

To me, you were not investing here. Also dead on phrased in this topic by Cigarbutt.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Gregmal

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #35 on: January 09, 2019, 07:45:42 PM »
Hi John,

Traditional, WB/Graham inspired value investing, probably not. Agreed.

However I consider investing to have multiple definitions. I consider using myriad angles, theories, data points, OR multiple combinations of all of those things to find exploitable opportunities, or mispricings, to be a form of investing. At the end of the day, making a buck is the goal. Then growing that buck. To me, value investing is just as much about exploiting mis-pricings as it is about anything else. So when a bunch of situations occur that to me indicate too many fat kids on one side of the see-saw, sometimes all you have to do is wait for them to get off. Not for everyone, sure. Hard to quantify, sure. Maybe skill, maybe luck, maybe we never find out.

I've noticed, especially with some responses here, that some rather wear badges of honor "investing" in the tried and true, textbook ways, even if it means negative, or mediocre returns, than make money entertaining more unorthodox approaches. Different ways to skin a cat so to speak but many times, especially with the markets, pattern recognition is big. You have the fundamental analysis crowd, and the technical analysis crowd. You have some that try both. I try not to box myself in, but rather prefer a "go anywhere" approach, if the situation makes sense.

This is a community and sharing potentially profitable ideas shouldn't be attacked. I've seen bozos with one post come here and post promo shit about penny stocks. And they get attacked, sure... I get that. But whining and sour grapes(over an idea that made money nonetheless) because the idea doesn't fit YOUR model of "investing" is stupid. No one is forced to follow, read, or invest. If people don't like it? Then move on...


EDIT: I'd add, back to MDXG, as an investor, I don't know how this whole thing isn't fascinating to people. At some point probably in the next 6 months, there will be a massive amount of money to be made on one side of this trade, for fundamental reasons. Why wouldn't it be worth keeping tabs on or trying to figure out what side that money will be made on?
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 07:54:03 PM by Gregmal »

BG2008

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #36 on: January 09, 2019, 09:39:02 PM »
Investing is kind of like poker.  Overtime, you learn to calibrate each other.  A wise fellow on this board told me years ago that I was pretty good in real estate.  He also correctly pointed out a few others who do good work in specific industries.  I think I learned a bit more about some of you guys via this thread. 

alwaysdrawing

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #37 on: January 13, 2019, 04:35:17 PM »
Ultimately, what's left of this situation is a black box, and I still would advise folks who haven't been involved previously here to stay away.  Without good financial information, including cash on hand, legal expenses and audit expenses, DOJ/SEC liabilities, and much of any communications with shareholders, there is little to base any judgment on, except what caused the collapse from $17/share to $2/share in a year.

Prescience Point's presentation makes some good points, and my two cents is that there is a viable business within MDXG, however, they are too much discounting the legal and accounting costs, as well as any civil and criminal liability that the company has.  The auditor resignation is a big sign of the extent of those problems, as the restatement costs are fantastic fees for accountancies, and it takes an extremely bad situation to cause an auditor to resign using such strong language.  If Prescience Point was correct that the problems have been overstated, I don't see how that meshes with the auditor resignations.  The economics of the business are not as rosy as Prescience presents, as share based compensation to employees (as well as potential bribes to practitioners) are much different at higher share prices and with the current evidence of impropriety. I also think it's early to judge what, if any the civil and criminal liabilities are without any disclosure of resolution.

With that said, I'd agree with Prescience that the equity represents an option, where the downside is 0 in the event of bankruptcy, and possibly multiples of the share price if there are no further issues and what issues exist can be resolved at minimal cost.

My guess is that post-bankruptcy, MDXG can reorganize into a smaller entity with reasonable economics, and I suspect that the current holders will not be the beneficiaries of that.  I still expect that bankruptcy will be coming sooner rather than later to protect the company from the liabilities that they face, that are mostly not reflected on the most recent balance sheet, which is a year stale.

I do have a long-term position in puts on the company, that expires in January 2020, and which cannot be traded except to close the position.  I do not have any other short position, and haven't been trading in and out of the name, except to close some December 2019 puts before expiration.  As new put positions can't be opened, I don't have any trading advice except to say:  be careful out there.  Some people know how to trade in and out of these situations profitably, but I do not, and although I see the common stock equity as an option in this situation, I think the odds are stacked against it paying off.  With such little disclosure, I can't be sure what is actually going on at the company right now, and I'm not sure that many do besides insiders, and even they cannot see the other side of the table at the SEC and DOJ.


Gregmal

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #38 on: March 19, 2019, 08:30:08 AM »
This is now a multi bagger from the 8K heard 'round the world that many called the worst they'd ever seen and claimed was the death knell.

For myself, unfortunately I did not have the discipline to see this through entirely. But just goes to show following the crowd can be dangerous and blind people to opportunities. I mean at one point this was priced as though bankruptcy and judgments/penalties were known and appeals were exhausted when anyone with an understanding of the legal process knows at best, it would be 6-12 months before any of that even starts to occur.

Gregmal

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