Author Topic: NFLX - Netflix  (Read 64362 times)

glorysk87

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #210 on: May 06, 2019, 11:48:41 AM »
I'd never short a momentum stock but why do you feel it is a long here? 
They have 149 million global streaming paid memberships. Spreading the cost of content out to this many customers allows them to easily outspend competitors. Once they reach a more steady state then the per-share economics will be rewarding imo.


Not why is it a great product or business but why is $370/share a cheap price to pay?
I just chimed in because the short thesis sounded familiar from what was said in 2010 and the stock has gone up quite a bit since that time. It wouldn't be right to chime in without disclosing my position. I'm still long but I bought it at a lower price than $370. For me it isn't so much that $370/share is a "cheap price" to pay, I see it more as a wonderful business at a price that isn't unreasonable.

What do you consider steady state? Said another way, what scale do you think they need to achieve to generate "rewarding per-share economics"?


LongTermView

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #211 on: May 06, 2019, 12:06:52 PM »
What do you consider steady state? Said another way, what scale do you think they need to achieve to generate "rewarding per-share economics"?

I don't know, I think of Coca-Cola as being steady-state now. They're not everywhere but they've covered much of the planet. Netflix has a ways to go imo. I'm betting that when their annual paid subscriber growth slows to 10% or less then the bottom line economics will be rewarding on a per-share basis.

Liberty

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Liberty

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Liberty

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jschembs

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #215 on: July 17, 2019, 02:59:21 PM »
Can't remember the last time NFLX lost domestic subs (Qwikster?). I'm sure they'll get asked the tough questions on the conference call by their hand-picked interviewer.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 03:02:30 PM by jschembs »

Liberty

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Re: NFLX - Netflix
« Reply #216 on: July 17, 2019, 04:02:02 PM »
As Matt Ball says:

"Odds are if Stranger Things came out a week earlier, there'd be no loss, but a very different narrative.

Not that anything would be different (in a good or bad way)"

https://twitter.com/ballmatthew/status/1151595230820478977
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen