it's different until a player increases production for purpose of simply generating more income
today there is an increasing number of database transaction activities done in memory rather than on disk, ssd, and hybrids ... while the business isn't going anywhere for the foreseeable future, there will likely be swings in value as a result of tweaking the supply chain
I owned Micron and sold in the $30s...I am waiting for the next leg of the cycle to buy more.
I think there is a strong case to be made that "this time it is different" with MU.
I didn't think that way in the past, but I'm convinced now for TWO reasons.
#1
I've been working with/building/selling computers for over 20 years now. Sometimes it is a hobby, sometimes it is my main source of income. In all the time I've been working with them, I've NEVER seen memory prices do what they have done over the past 18 months. NOT EVEN CLOSE. It is simply unprecedented that DRAM prices would TRIPLE and stay that way for a good period of time.
#2
As time progresses, the number of memory manufacturers continues to get smaller & smaller. At this point, there are only 3. It is so much easier for 3 manufacturers to act "rationally" than it is for 7,10,15, or even 20.
Sure, the Chinese might get into this area, but the cost of setting up a foundry is hundreds of millions of $, perhaps even a billion. That is going to keep a lot of competitors out. If they do come in, they will likely act rationally.
I don't think we will ever get back to having 10 or a dozen different manufacturers.
Finally, if MU is making money at the clip they have been recently...that is going to change things real fast. A stock simply won't trade for a P/E of 4 in a normalized market.
We will see, but real money is to be made when the normal way of doing business has radically changed.