Author Topic: NTDOY - Nintendo  (Read 96788 times)

tombgrt

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1924
Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
« Reply #280 on: September 14, 2018, 02:10:01 AM »
Bought a switch to enjoy with friends and fzmily and very very impressed with the console and games like Mario and Zelda. Line up looks really impressive and as someone who enjoys board games I'm curious how carcasonne, Catan etc will work out.


Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10992
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

SHDL

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 242
Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
« Reply #282 on: February 25, 2019, 02:12:55 PM »
Writeup on Nintendo:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ULEiRakfsxReDvv5xOG1gglTDkwJa791pZR_458xWWg/edit#slide=id.g4ce9c58e07_0_0

Via https://twitter.com/HardcoreValue/status/1100113864102952960

Thatís a good summary of the bull case. 

So far Iíve been reluctant to take a big position though because I donít have a great deal of confidence in their management.  Itís something I see a lot with Japanese companies: ultra conservative, slow moving, questionable capital allocation, and generally just not shareholder friendly.  But if they were to be acquired by the right kind of company.... 

Foreign Tuffett

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 686
Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
« Reply #283 on: February 26, 2019, 05:57:26 AM »
Unless there is evidence otherwise, I have a very hard time believing that Nintendo would ever sell itself, particularly to a foreign buyer. I present as evidence (1) Nintendo's history (2) Japanese corporate governance more generally and (3) the recent Nissan-Renault drama, which I believe is (in part) an example of the craziness that can happen when you plan to merge a high profile Japanese company with a foreign company.

SHDL

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 242
Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
« Reply #284 on: February 26, 2019, 09:49:10 AM »
Unless there is evidence otherwise, I have a very hard time believing that Nintendo would ever sell itself, particularly to a foreign buyer. I present as evidence (1) Nintendo's history (2) Japanese corporate governance more generally and (3) the recent Nissan-Renault drama, which I believe is (in part) an example of the craziness that can happen when you plan to merge a high profile Japanese company with a foreign company.

Those are good reasons to be skeptical.  I canít think of too many companies that could pull it off successfully either, though I think Apple might be an exception.

On Apple, there was an article in Barronís not too long ago that talked about why they should buy Nintendo.  I didnít find the discussion there particularly insightful, but I happen to agree with the conclusion.

My personal take on this is that if Apple were to acquire Nintendo, they could probably (a) get rid of the console business, (b) make the games run on Apple devices (wirelessly connected to Nintendo-branded controllers) instead, (c) sell access to the game library via a subscription service, and (d) let the guys at Nintendo focus on developing great games and not worry about making money.  I can imagine a package like that being a win for all parties involved.

Also, there are no controlling shareholders or policies currently in place at Nintendo that could block such a move, so things seem clear on that front.

johnny

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 401
Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
« Reply #285 on: February 28, 2019, 01:25:43 AM »
My personal take on this is that if Apple were to acquire Nintendo, they could probably (a) get rid of the console business, (b) make the games run on Apple devices (wirelessly connected to Nintendo-branded controllers) instead, (c) sell access to the game library via a subscription service, and (d) let the guys at Nintendo focus on developing great games and not worry about making money.  I can imagine a package like that being a win for all parties involved.

It is delusional to think that Nintendo will agree to be acquired by Apple under such circumstances. Being stripped of their autonomy and becoming a captive second-party developer for a platform run by a company that has demonstrated nothing but disrespect for gaming/gamers/game-devs is not something -any- self respecting organization would do short of absolute financial catastrophe--and Nintendo has enough cash hoarded to see it through plenty of bad cycles.

Apple and Nintendo merging made a lot of sense, half a decade ago. But it would have required a certain amount of vision and willingness to compromise. Nintendo doesn't have the space to compromise, and the C-suite at Apple clearly lacks anything resembling vision.

SHDL

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 242
Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
« Reply #286 on: February 28, 2019, 03:46:33 AM »
Would you care to elaborate on the ďdisrespectĒ you speak of?  Maybe you know something Iím missing. TIA.

johnny

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 401
Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
« Reply #287 on: February 28, 2019, 04:24:13 AM »
Actually meant to say disinterest there. However, I think the Freudian version works too.

When the Apple TV launched, it was pretty clear that Apple's position on gaming was that it wasn't something that deservedtheir attention. It certainly didn't have a coherent plan (different docs at launch had totally contradictory information on key development constraints for the platform; IE whether or not you could make a game that required an actual gaming controller). Very reminiscent of the iPhone-launch-era dismissiveness of third party developers. Except at least the iPhone-launch was an a priori error. By 2016 we were all aware that GAMES were driving the substantial bulk of all of that precious service revenue Tim was always droning on about. So the lack of attention was completely negligent. I'd call it disdainful.

The iPhone became a huge platform for casual games, thanks to no real affirmative decision by Apple to make it so--it was a total accident, a windfall that I think has fed into Apple's worst tendencies (arrogance about their own platform's superiority, dismissiveness about those who disagree with their tradeoffs or aesthetically-guided product roadmaps).

The fact that, back when Nintendo was at like $10B EV, Apple didn't have an army of diplomats and escorts in Tokyo doing whatever it took to get a deal done is all you need to know.

An organization -that- oblivious to such an incredible opportunity is going to be just as pathetic at implementing the strategy.

Look at the broad narrative history of Apple's share buybacks. Einhorn and Icahn and everybody else spent years screaming at Tim to repurchase shares. Well eventually he got religion, and they've proceeded to top-tick the repurchases like they don't really understand what the point of it all is. If it takes them five years to figure out they should do something, they're going to botch it when you eventually trick them into doing it.

If Apple and Nintendo got hitched, I'd be pushing for it to be a NeXT-style acquisition, where everybody involved in tvOS gets shot out of a cannon (including Eddie Cue) and Japan takes the entire thing over. Incidentally, that's the only sort of deal I could see passing the cultural acid test over there.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2019, 04:26:19 AM by johnny »

SHDL

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 242
Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
« Reply #288 on: February 28, 2019, 06:07:50 AM »
I somewhat agree.  Although, the fact that Apple has been several years late on so many things actually makes me think that they will be several years late again in the gaming space and finally start doing something there before too long.