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General Category => Investment Ideas => Topic started by: moore_capital54 on February 08, 2012, 11:48:43 AM

Title: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: moore_capital54 on February 08, 2012, 11:48:43 AM
Over the last 2 months we have built a significant position in Nintendo.

I thought I would share this idea with the board as it is the type of contrarian value investment that I love and reminds me of others which have produced fantastic results for us over the years.

What we have here is a company that is currently valued at a market cap of $19.5B USD. However, Nintendo holds over $13B in cash and liquid securities. When subtracting the cash we get an EV of only $6.5B.

Our thesis is that the earnings power of the business on a normalized basis, works out to roughly $2-3B a year.

We can go on and on about what Nintendo has done wrong, and how they desperately need a hot product. History teaches us that at least once every decade, Nintendo is able to launch such a product and when it does it produces significant FCF. FY 2011 Nintendo produced $800mm of FCF, and this was considered a terrible year.

Another catalyst is the dividend reinstatement which was suspended on September 29th, but historically ran around 1-2B a year. A reinstatement would mean the current valuation would produce between 5-10% dividend yields.

I expect NTDOY to double over the next 24 months quite easily, with very little downside risk.

Enjoy!
Title: Re: Nintendo - NTDOY
Post by: benhacker on February 08, 2012, 12:12:32 PM
Hey Moore, thanks.  This had fallen off my watchlist for some reason.

Hmm.... Interesting.

Ben
Title: Re: Nintendo - NTDOY
Post by: misterstockwell on February 08, 2012, 12:21:06 PM
It's a buggy whip company with a lot of cash. Times have changed. Smartphones, tablets, ultrabooks, even e-readers can all play games that are free or very low cost. Wii consoles are beyond uncool. They would need to reinvent themselves. It's possible, but I think the risk is much higher than you are calculating.
Title: Re: Nintendo - NTDOY
Post by: eclecticvalue on February 08, 2012, 12:32:04 PM
NTDOY seems interesting. One of the catalysts would be if the Wii U becomes popular and it seems like an interesting console so far. A main issue that has been holding back Nintendo is the handheld market. Smartphones and tablets have been taking over gaming, since Android and Apple users can buy games for a very cheap price instead of buying a handheld gaming device and cartridges that can cost $20+. I would have to do more due diligence of where Nintendo makes its money.
Title: Re: Nintendo - NTDOY
Post by: tombgrt on February 08, 2012, 12:32:16 PM
Thanks for sharing Moore.

Misterstockwell made an interesting point imo but on the other hand I believe there should be some value in Mario, Luigi and their friends as 'hidden assets' and the brand in itself.  Console gaming is still very much alive and there is a very real difference between some "B-games" on tablets etc. and actual gaming. Not sure of how much of this 'actual gaming' is a commodity tho.
Title: Re: Nintendo - NTDOY
Post by: alwaysinvert on February 08, 2012, 01:03:52 PM
Why do they suspend the dividend when they generate some FCF and have huge cash reserves? Are their coming investments that high?

Counting on the same cashflows from the handheld side as before is highly optimistic though, with both smartphones and the Vita cutting into their market.

I really don't see why they take the risk of producing their own stationary consoles, though. They never seem to be able to rack up satisfactory 3rd party support anymore (perhaps due to squeezing the developers too much in the past). The Wii has sold in almost 100m units and the profit this year has been pretty abysmal despite them being the clear winner this generation. I'd imagine they would be able to make relatively much safer money if they went third party and developed across all major platforms.

On the other hand, everybody said Nintendo was toast before the release of the Wii, too.
Title: Re: Nintendo - NTDOY
Post by: ValueBuff on February 08, 2012, 02:35:21 PM
I just looked at this earlier this week.

They have a great gaming franchise with Mario and Link.  They are coming out with a new console later this year.  That should drive the stock. 

I bought a position on monday...glad to see someone else saw this one.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: bengrahamofthenorth on February 09, 2012, 08:03:18 AM
I'm a pretty big gamer. It really seems like Nintendo is going to get caught in the middle. Hardcore gamers pick up high end systems like the new xboxs and playstations, while everybody else is more than happy with their smart phones and tablets. The wii was a great hit because it appealed to a mass audience who wanted fun games, now those consumers have iphones and ipads which have thousands of games for a fraction of the price or free. Nintendo should focus on software for the competition (console and mobile) much like Sega did after the dreamcast died, but with the new wii coming out, I don't see that happening and capital allocation is a serious concern. I would be extremely surprised if future profitability is similar to historical numbers.
Title: Re: Nintendo - NTDOY
Post by: valueInv on February 09, 2012, 09:11:30 AM
I just looked at this earlier this week.

They have a great gaming franchise with Mario and Link.  They are coming out with a new console later this year.  That should drive the stock. 

I bought a position on monday...glad to see someone else saw this one.
It's been on my watch list for a while but haven't gotten a change to analyze it. How much do you think their Mario and Link franchises are worth?
Title: Re: Nintendo - NTDOY
Post by: alwaysinvert on February 09, 2012, 09:32:44 AM
I just looked at this earlier this week.

They have a great gaming franchise with Mario and Link.  They are coming out with a new console later this year.  That should drive the stock. 

I bought a position on monday...glad to see someone else saw this one.
It's been on my watch list for a while but haven't gotten a change to analyze it. How much do you think their Mario and Link franchises are worth?
The Zelda franchise is worth considerably less than the Pokémon franchise, anyhow.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on May 02, 2012, 12:08:32 PM
any comments and update after recent earnings?
Title: Re: Nintendo - NTDOY
Post by: alwaysinvert on June 15, 2012, 05:54:51 AM
Counting on the same cashflows from the handheld side as before is highly optimistic though, with both smartphones and the Vita cutting into their market.
It seems like I may have been wrong on this one:

As you’re all aware, the sales of Nintendo 3DS hardware continue to outpace the sales of Nintendo DS hardware at similar points in their life cycles. But what’s less known is the fact that the Nintendo 3DS is outperforming the Nintendo DS on software as well. In its first 14 months versus the first 14 months of Nintendo DS, which is a platform that didn’t have to compete with mobile phones, social and other factors that are present today, the Nintendo 3DS has managed to sell 10.5 million physical games so far. This figure exceeds the pace that was set by the best-selling system of all time, and the Nintendo 3DS is just getting started.

Granted, they did make a massive cut in the price tag of the 3DS shortly after the release because of low sales. However:

One point I’d like to make is that in the sales comparison of the Nintendo DS and the Nintendo 3DS, the price of the Nintendo 3DS hardware ($169.99) after the markdown is still higher than the original price of the Nintendo DS ($149.99) at the launch in the U.S.

I think this is starting to get interesting for real. 3DS chugging along with good prospects of hitting its peak earning years with a comparable user base to the DS, an option on the Wii U being a success and a cash hoard of 1T yen while the company sells at 1.15T.

Check out this blog:

http://valueprax.wordpress.com/2012/06/01/would-you-buy-this-business-a-bargain-in-the-videogame-industry-valueinvesting-ntdoy-videogames-aapl/

http://valueprax.wordpress.com/2012/06/13/good-news-for-shareholders-e3-updates-from-nintendo-ntdoy-msft/

And the Q&A from E3:

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/120606qa/index.html
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on June 15, 2012, 08:07:17 AM
Pointless and irrelevant trivia...

Nintendo & RIM:

(http://i.imgur.com/h6E10.png)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: beerbaron on June 16, 2012, 07:23:27 AM
Maybe you could do spread arbitrage :P

BeerBaron
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Rabbitisrich on June 16, 2012, 12:08:23 PM
The Wii U looks interesting. The old complaint about Nintendo is that they come out with amazing products (Wii and DS), but overly rely upon old brands in those first few months after release.

http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/nintendo-wii-u-console-demo-6-15-12/1406484 (http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/nintendo-wii-u-console-demo-6-15-12/1406484)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Green King on June 16, 2012, 01:24:38 PM
The Wii U looks interesting. The old complaint about Nintendo is that they come out with amazing products (Wii and DS), but overly rely upon old brands in those first few months after release.

http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/nintendo-wii-u-console-demo-6-15-12/1406484 (http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/nintendo-wii-u-console-demo-6-15-12/1406484)

Overly reply on brands? Please explain.
The Wii U look like another other game changer.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on June 16, 2012, 04:33:08 PM
The Wii U looks interesting. The old complaint about Nintendo is that they come out with amazing products (Wii and DS), but overly rely upon old brands in those first few months after release.

http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/nintendo-wii-u-console-demo-6-15-12/1406484 (http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/nintendo-wii-u-console-demo-6-15-12/1406484)
Well, Wii Sports/Play was a new brand available at the release of the Wii and Sports is now the most sold video game ever, selling almost twice as much as the runner-up (the original Super Mario Bros. from 1985).
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Rabbitisrich on June 16, 2012, 05:57:49 PM
The hardware is undeniably great. The 3DS is an AMAZING product. The Wii U is a very logical progression. However:

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/handhelds/nintendo-exec-lack-of-great-3ds-games-killed-momentum-990613 (http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/handhelds/nintendo-exec-lack-of-great-3ds-games-killed-momentum-990613)
Quote
Nintendo's failure to offer strong games at launch is responsible for poor sales of the Nintendo 3DS handheld console, according to the company's US president.

http://mynintendonews.com/2012/05/04/miyamoto-says-lack-of-playstation-vita-games-is-killing-handhelds-prospects/ (http://mynintendonews.com/2012/05/04/miyamoto-says-lack-of-playstation-vita-games-is-killing-handhelds-prospects/)
Quote
Legendary games developer Shigeru Miyamoto has told (http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/169822/Miyamoto_Lack_of_PS_Vita_software_is_weakening_handhelds_prospects.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+GamasutraNews+%28Gamasutra+News%29) Edge magazine that while the PlayStation Vita is a powerful piece of hardware, the system is struggling from the same lack of games that the Nintendo 3DS encountered last year.

http://www.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/700315/nintendo-admits-losing-momentum-with-wii-blames-lacking-games/ (http://www.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/700315/nintendo-admits-losing-momentum-with-wii-blames-lacking-games/)
Quote
Nintendo president Satoru Iwata has blamed the company's inability to roll out compelling software to maintain momentum in the past and Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun (http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20091029-00000610-san-bus_all) (as translated by Andriasang (http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/10/29/iwata_says_wii_price_drop_effective/)) said that remains the biggest stumbling block for Nintendo. "We were unable to show a new game to become 'the next thing.'" said Iwata about Nintendo's latest earnings report. "In the game market, once you've lost the momentum, it takes time to recover."

Of course, those articles are based on impressions of numbers, not the numbers directly, but they do cover a period from '09-'12.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: leftcoast on June 16, 2012, 08:44:32 PM
Well, Wii Sports/Play was a new brand available at the release of the Wii and Sports is now the most sold video game ever, selling almost twice as much as the runner-up (the original Super Mario Bros. from 1985).

Not really fair to compare Wii Sports to any other game, since it was bundled with every Wii console. If you bought Nintendo's platform, you couldn't not buy Wii Sports.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: leftcoast on June 16, 2012, 09:06:17 PM
The Wii U looks interesting. The old complaint about Nintendo is that they come out with amazing products (Wii and DS), but overly rely upon old brands in those first few months after release.

http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/nintendo-wii-u-console-demo-6-15-12/1406484 (http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/nintendo-wii-u-console-demo-6-15-12/1406484)

Nintendo's strength has historically been its 1st-party game development, meaning the games that Nintendo makes for its own platforms. Nintendo has some of the strongest (and oldest) IP in the business, including Mario, Zelda, and Pokemon. Those are franchises you can only play on Nintendo's platforms.

Nintendo's weakness has historically been support from 3rd-party publishers like EA, Activision, and Take Two. There are a bunch of reasons for this, but the main ones are:
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on June 17, 2012, 03:24:08 AM
Well, Wii Sports/Play was a new brand available at the release of the Wii and Sports is now the most sold video game ever, selling almost twice as much as the runner-up (the original Super Mario Bros. from 1985).

Not really fair to compare Wii Sports to any other game, since it was bundled with every Wii console. If you bought Nintendo's platform, you couldn't not buy Wii Sports.
Super Mario Bros was bundled too. Wii play is the most sold non-bundled game of all time.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: leftcoast on June 17, 2012, 09:07:59 AM
Well, most copies of Wii Play were actually sold bundled with the Wii Remote controller. The Wii console shipped with only one Wii Remote, so if you wanted to play with friends you needed to buy a second controller. Your choice was to pay $50 for the controller by itself, or for an extra $10, you could get it bundled with Wii Play. So the game wasn't quite given away, but it was pretty close.

As "brands," I don't think Wii Sports or Wii Play or Wii Fit are nearly as valuable as Nintendo's other franchises. They are products designed to teach people how to use some new piece of hardware. I'm sure a similar type of game will ship with the Wii U, to teach people how to use the tablet controller.

It's been a very long time since Nintendo successfully launched a new franchise based on original IP. I think the last one was Pokemon in 1996.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on June 17, 2012, 09:46:18 AM
Well, most copies of Wii Play were actually sold bundled with the Wii Remote controller. The Wii console shipped with only one Wii Remote, so if you wanted to play with friends you needed to buy a second controller. Your choice was to pay $50 for the controller by itself, or for an extra $10, you could get it bundled with Wii Play. So the game wasn't quite given away, but it was pretty close.

As "brands," I don't think Wii Sports or Wii Play or Wii Fit are nearly as valuable as Nintendo's other franchises. They are products designed to teach people how to use some new piece of hardware. I'm sure a similar type of game will ship with the Wii U, to teach people how to use the tablet controller.

It's been a very long time since Nintendo successfully launched a new franchise based on original IP. I think the last one was Pokemon in 1996.
Nah, on this point I think you are wrong even if you don't consider Wii Sports/Play games proper IPs (with Wii Sports Resort also selling humongous amounts, although admittedly also mostly in bundles with the upgraded controller).

Nintendo has still released new IPs like Nintendogs (24m copies), Brain Age (34m copies counting both games in the series), Animal Crossing (11.5m for the DS version and a couple million more each for the N64, GC and Wii installations) and Pikmin (some 2-3m units, which were great numbers for GC games). They also relaunched the old IP Metroid to great sales figures.

Yes, they still depend heavily on Mario, but to some extent I think stating that as a big weakness is somewhat akin to wondering what the heck Disney would be without Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: leftcoast on June 17, 2012, 10:59:29 AM
Well, most copies of Wii Play were actually sold bundled with the Wii Remote controller. The Wii console shipped with only one Wii Remote, so if you wanted to play with friends you needed to buy a second controller. Your choice was to pay $50 for the controller by itself, or for an extra $10, you could get it bundled with Wii Play. So the game wasn't quite given away, but it was pretty close.

As "brands," I don't think Wii Sports or Wii Play or Wii Fit are nearly as valuable as Nintendo's other franchises. They are products designed to teach people how to use some new piece of hardware. I'm sure a similar type of game will ship with the Wii U, to teach people how to use the tablet controller.

It's been a very long time since Nintendo successfully launched a new franchise based on original IP. I think the last one was Pokemon in 1996.
Nah, on this point I think you are wrong even if you don't consider Wii Sports/Play games proper IPs (with Wii Sports Resort also selling humongous amounts, although admittedly also mostly in bundles with the upgraded controller).

Nintendo has still released new IPs like Nintendogs (24m copies), Brain Age (34m copies counting both games in the series), Animal Crossing (11.5m for the DS version and a couple million more each for the N64, GC and Wii installations) and Pikmin (some 2-3m units, which were great numbers for GC games). They also relaunched the old IP Metroid to great sales figures.

Yes, they still depend heavily on Mario, but to some extent I think stating that as a big weakness is somewhat akin to wondering what the heck Disney would be without Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.

Nintendogs and Brain Age - Both huge sellers. But they were also one-hit wonders with little lasting competitive advantage as IP. They are not enduring franchises with moats.

Animal Crossing - Yes, definitely a successful new franchise. I forgot about that one!

Pikmin - Great game, but those numbers are not great for a franchise of 5 titles. Only 2 Pikmin games managed to hit even 1M units.

I didn't state that depending on Mario was a huge weakness. I was just pointing out (or maybe agreeing with another poster) that Nintendo does heavily rely on its own stable of long-standing IP, since it gets relatively weak support from 3rd-party developers.

I have a lot of respect for Nintendo. This is a company that has been making games for over 120 years! They have created amazing franchises that go all the way back to arcade machines in the 1970s. They have been written off as dead or irrelevant several times, and have always managed to innovate their way back into position.

At the same time, I think it's really hard for anyone to handicap the odds of success going forward. The video-game business is going through a tremendous amount of disruption right now. Increasingly, Nintendo's competitors in the casual and family gaming space are not Microsoft and Sony, but Apple and Google. It's very difficult to compete with $1-$2 games on open platforms.

I've never looked at Nintendo as a stock, so I don't know to what extent the investment thesis depends on assumptions about its future. Maybe it's a net-net, in which case predicting the future is not necessary. But if you need to assume anything about where Nintendo will be in 3-5 years, then for me it would be in the "too hard" pile.

Time for Father's Day brunch!
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on June 17, 2012, 12:58:08 PM
I'm not sure why you state Nintendogs and Brain Age as one-hit wonders. They have both had high-selling sequels. Yes, they sure aren't as reliable as Mario or a Blizzard franchise at the moment but I don't think we can be so sure that they aren't enduring franchises.

As for Pikmin, I only know of two titles that were both released for Gamecube, and thus never could rack up the huge sales of Wii games. For Gamecube games they did very well, however. Let's wait and see how Pikmin 3 does for the Wii U.

I agree with you that handicapping what happens next is hard. Valuing Nintendo merely on FCF history is hazardous, but I still think there are huge values in their numerous franchises, even if Nintendo could possibly squander a lot of value by getting on the wrong side of the next technology paradigm. To me, however, it seems that management is taking a somewhat pragmatic view even if they won't do what everybody is screaming for and develop for Apple.

Nintendo is not quite a netnet, but damn close for a company with their quality.

And I'm not so sure $1 games on an Ipad(Iphone is really a substitute for New Super Mario Bros. I see very few free or low-cost games that you could spend hour upon hour playing, while they certainly serve their purpose well in short bursts.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on June 17, 2012, 01:06:48 PM
Nintendo could be quite interesting as a play on a weaker yen, too. They get +80% of their business from abroad so the strong yen is hurting their business severely atm.

I don't own any stock yet but I am close to pulling the trigger.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: whistlerbumps on July 17, 2012, 07:17:23 AM
I have owned Nintendo in the past (pre Wii launch) and think it is a great company.  I don't own any now though and would like to add one cautionary note.  I think it is a very flawed assumption to give full credit to the cash on the balance sheet, especially when thinking about downside protection.  This cash will not be returned to shareholders in any material quantity (see divvy cut even with wildly overcapitalized balance sheet) and will certainly be used to fund operating losses if the Wii U is a flop.  I think a material haircut (30%, 50%?) is warranted to account for the trapped nature of the cash.  Thus, I think that NTDOY at current prices is a bet that either the Wii U is successful (certainly possible) or that the 3DS will sell more software and generate sufficient cash flow to offset 3DS hardware and Wii U losses.  At this price, I am not yet comfortable with that best. 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on November 01, 2012, 04:30:49 PM
We are way, way behind on VOD here in Europe compared to you guys on the other side of the pond, so I'm not particularly atune to the way you use it, but doesn't the TVii function look very neat?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12vyUOdPXbE&t=22m40s
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on December 18, 2012, 04:42:52 PM
So, seems like the interest in this thread is moderate at best... But the share price has come down quite a bit again. The Wii U sales have been good initially (something that shouldn't be considered all that important - game consoles have become successes both with bad releases and with good ones, however Christmas sales may give som good indications). They are dominating game sales in the total market since the 3DS has continued to pick up speed both on the hardware and software side.

Satoru Iwata on the Wii U outlook:

Quote
I do not yet have all the necessary information to be able to say exactly when Wii U hardware will start to be sold at a profit. If you just look at this fiscal year, I do not expect Wii U to make a big contribution to our profits since the software sales will be rather limited due to a rather limited installed base of the hardware and, even as a whole, we cannot be optimistic about their combined profit contribution either when we take into consideration the fact that we need to invest a lot into our advertising activities at first. However, in the next fiscal year, we will have a larger installed base. We will have a richer array of software and manufacturing costs will also decrease. Therefore I believe that, as opposed to simply asking when we will be able to sell Wii U at a profit, the focus should be on constructing a healthy profit structure for the business as a whole by launching a sufficient amount of quality software at fast enough a pace for our home console, on which we can look to achieve a higher tie ratio* than on handheld systems, and selling as many units of software as possible. I believe this is a goal we can achieve in the next fiscal year. While I cannot say exactly when the Wii U hardware will become profitable, I am confident that in the next fiscal year we can improve our Wii U business to a level where the platform business as a whole (when we include both the hardware and the software) makes solid contributions to our profits

As per the financials of Sept. 30th the stock trades at b/p 1 and ncav/p 0.8.

Outlook is foggy as hell but I think the cash sucking black hole scenario is out of question for this generation now. I am however not yet sure if that makes the stock underpriced enough.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: rjstc on December 18, 2012, 05:16:53 PM
Rupal Bhansali.  I recently watched a Steve Forbes interview of her. She is with the Ariel Fund. I was very impressed. She had some good comments about Nintendo. I believe it was about 11/19/12.
     It's not far off 52 week lows right now. I personally have bought some.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Palantir on December 18, 2012, 07:19:34 PM
I think Nintendo has some great characteristics as well as risks....anyone have any insights/links to articles about their new CEO. I think that is absolutely crucial for a firm like this.


In some way, Nintendo is like Apple - integrate hardware with software.

Interested in hearing from the bulls on what indicators they would look for.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on December 18, 2012, 08:16:03 PM
I think Nintendo has some great characteristics as well as risks....anyone have any insights/links to articles about their new CEO. I think that is absolutely crucial for a firm like this.


In some way, Nintendo is like Apple - integrate hardware with software.

Interested in hearing from the bulls on what indicators they would look for.
New? He's been there for 10 years, you know. There are some details to be read in the book Nintendo Magic.

First outside CEO ever (first one not from the Yamauchi clan, even), trained computer programmer and game developer who headed HAL Labratory (now a second-party developer for Nintendo; the company behind the Kirby franchise and Super Smash Bros. among other games) before being handpicked by Yamauchi to head Nintendo. For me he gets full marks and seems to not only care about Nintendo as a company but also about the shareholders.

The problems I have with Nintendo are more due to business characteristics. There is a perfectly valid reason that they have so much cash on the balance sheet. And it's not that they are Japanese. When it comes to corporate governance, Nintendo is as Western as a Japanese company can be - they wouldn't hurt the returns for shareholders just to be able to not lay off people when times get rougher. The reasons are, explicitly stated by Iwata, that a flop could get them $5b or so in the hole quite easily. So they should maybe not get 100% credit for the cash in a valuation. On the other hand, it's extremely hard to deny the value of their franchises - but even harder to quantify.

My sole worry when it comes to personel is that Shigeru Miyamoto is getting old and has most of his ideas behind him - and those are the ideas that are Nintendo of today. Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong, Star Fox, Pikmin etc. The only high-profile long-lasting Nintendo franchises that weren't his ideas are Metroid and Pokemon, and even there he has had some input, at least in later installations. Even if he has another 10 years of work in him, the creative flame is likely extinguishing, like for most people that are 60+ . So the hope in that regard is that his continuing mentoring will foster some good talents. The option on a new big hit of some kind is always attractive of course and may be the deciding factor on the value of the company. A new Pokemon type hit would make current shareholders filthy rich.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Green King on December 18, 2012, 08:19:49 PM
you have done some great work. Seems all one needs is to wait.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Palantir on December 18, 2012, 08:50:24 PM
 :-[ Oops....I confused NTDOY with Sony then regarding "new CEO".

I agree with your point on Mr Miyamoto aging, but a lot of these franchises are in place already, for example the core story of Zelda has been created and reinvented many times throughout the game's history. (My fave was OoT). I'm not that worried about the continuation of these franchises. The biggest concern to me apart from threats from smartphones and tablets is the fact that one flop would likely be enough to vaporize the company given the firm's size.

With Xbox, MSFT is turning this into a living room powerhouse, something that will integrate with other Microsoft devices, and I don't think Nintendo can create the same network effects.

I like Nintendo, and that's the only system I owned as a kid, but I don't play videogames anymore, and I don't know if the current generation of kids have the same attachment to these games that my gen did.


Do you think a strategic acquirer like say Disney is a possibility? NTDOY's situation seems to me to be a hybrid of Apple prior to Jobs and Disney after Walt.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Green King on December 18, 2012, 09:06:57 PM
Rupal Bhansali Forbes inteview

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afzffbDP9SY

I think there is a free call on new ways to monetize the franchise.
Also I don't think there is significant synergies with full interrogation. (not sure) What will be the benefit for me ? or the game developers?   
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Palantir on December 19, 2012, 09:10:56 AM
Nintendo’s TVii a replacement for the remote

http://www.salon.com/2012/12/19/nintendos_tvii_a_replacement_for_the_remote/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on December 19, 2012, 11:34:23 AM
anyone ever did any analysis on what if NTDOY becomse purely a game developer/utilize its franchiese in mario, zelda etc

instead of building console etc.

the star wars franchise sold for 4bil, how much is nintendo's many characters/franchise worth?

their enterprise value is currently 2.5bil or so, not if wii u is a flop that can easily eat into some of their cash positions.

i haven't follow this long anyone ever ask nintendo management and what were their response?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Rabbitisrich on December 19, 2012, 11:58:14 AM
(http://www.dan-dare.org/Dan%20Mario/SMBMovie-MarioLuigi2.jpg)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on December 19, 2012, 12:32:30 PM
anyone ever did any analysis on what if NTDOY becomse purely a game developer/utilize its franchiese in mario, zelda etc

instead of building console etc.

the star wars franchise sold for 4bil, how much is nintendo's many characters/franchise worth?

their enterprise value is currently 2.5bil or so, not if wii u is a flop that can easily eat into some of their cash positions.

i haven't follow this long anyone ever ask nintendo management and what were their response?
Short answer on the pure software developer question is that it's not going to happen. At least not until it would be painfully obvious that the present road is going nowhere. For all the specific reasons I again direct you to the book Nintendo Magic. But in short: the company views itself not as a gaming or tech company but as an amusement company. As such its main objective is not to develop good games but make fun, novel products for the consumers.

To be able to do that they want to have complete control of the user experience (not unlike Apple in that regard) and not do that inhibited by some system set up by another company. That's also the reason why pretty much all Nintendo hardware is 'gimmicky'. They pride themselves in offering new and unique experiences and ways of playing. The internal analysis is that they strayed from that objective in the N64 and GC generations, which were comparably high-tech creations, and that's why they fell behind. So you are not going to see them make something traditional very soon or maybe even ever.

As for the franchises, I am pretty sure they are underutilized despite  the company chugging out sequels at a decent clip. Why couldn't there be one or several Nintendo theme parks? I know for sure that my 10 year old self would rather visit one of those than Disney World. Cable channels or big-screen movies doesn't seem that far out of reach either. But Nintendo wants to have quality control and they obviously don't have the inhouse competence to do all these things, so I don't know when or if it actually could happen. They also always stress not making what the other guy does and building theme parks and licensing games for movies certainly falls under that label. Maybe if they could find a partnership with a very good director so it won't turn out like some awful attempts (Super Mario Bros with Dennis Hopper and the animated Final Fantasy movie for example).

Some of Nintendo's value simply elude quantification. You know there's great value there, but the characteristics of both the business itself and the competition makes it very hard to grasp.

I highy recommend the Q&A:s at Nintendo's IR site, by the way. Lots can be gained when it comes to management culture and business strategy from them. And reading the extremely Japanese politeness in English adds some flavour to it :)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Palantir on December 19, 2012, 12:50:51 PM
It really does sound more and more like Apple, especially your comment about not making technologically advanced products, but focusing on the user experience.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: eclecticvalue on December 19, 2012, 02:32:50 PM
alwaysinvert, you beat me to it. I would like to add that being a game developer it is a "hits" business and you have to churn them every year that is not always possible since the competition is tough. Today THQ, one of the publicly listed companies filed for bankruptcy. So I wonder who will be next take-two or maybe EA.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on December 19, 2012, 02:40:41 PM
alwaysinvert, you beat me to it. I would like to add that being a game developer it is a "hits" business and you have to churn them every year that is not always possible since the competition is tough. Today THQ, one of the publicly listed companies filed for bankruptcy. So I wonder who will be next take-two or maybe EA.
Yes, and that's also why I don't know if the Apple parallells should make me more bullish on Nintendo or more gloomy on Apple. Or perhaps both :)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: eclecticvalue on December 19, 2012, 03:19:49 PM
Care to expand on why you would be gloomy on apple?

Also, Valve has thrown its hat into the console realm. It will be interesting to see what they can do in that space. So I would watch it very carefully.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on December 19, 2012, 04:11:52 PM
Care to expand on why you would be gloomy on apple?

Also, Valve has thrown its hat into the console realm. It will be interesting to see what they can do in that space. So I would watch it very carefully.
It's no unique insight or anything. Just like Nintendo, it's in a "hits" business, like you said. A protracted period of successful product launches makes normalizing earnings pretty much impossible.

Basically, I view buying Apple now somewhat akin to buying Nintendo in 2009. The flipside of that is that buying Nintendo now may be somewhat like buying Apple 10 years ago, at least in small scale. Still, even at these prices it's to some extent a bet that they have the proper culture and business strategy for the future. What's better is that Nintendo hasn't experienced a trough anywhere close to rivalling the one Apple had in the 90s. What's worse is that the target market is, and likely will stay, infinitesmally less profitable on the whole. However, if history can be a guide, they will get a new punt in about 5 years with the meter pretty much reset - even if this generation should prove a failure. But that obviously ignores the 'paradigm shift' argument.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: cpan on December 20, 2012, 12:23:55 PM
Nintendo looks very tempting at this valuation.  It almost trades at tangible book.   From the paradigm shift perspective, I am really wondering if this free game app deluge will slow down.  The economics of making apps is so bad that I would think it will eventually end with either worse game apps or fewer of them.   I am really surprised how good the game mechanics in games like Kirby as compared to what is available on the phone.  However as a parent, I don't really care how good the game mechanics my kids are playing with ( I am fine if they want to chop watermelon all day on the ipad as long as its free).  This compared to the demographic who plays CoD, they do care how good the games are and they are capable of paying it.   The thing I think Nintendo has a real shot is to do something like Pixar where they make games parent and kids both enjoy playing together.  However even if they crack that nut, it is still a one hit thing but you could say the samething about Pixar.   

(disclosure: on the fence about buying NTDOY)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on December 20, 2012, 12:38:30 PM
I don't think that the free game app deluge will hurt Nintendo that much.  Look at other cultural industries and intellectual property industries... there are people out there who make free music, short films, feature films (shudder...), free information on websites, etc.  You can get free software too (e.g. Ubuntu, Open Office).  There is still a big market for paid intellectual property.  Microsoft competes against Ubuntu and Open Office... Microsoft still makes huge amounts of money.  The market for high-quality IP should still be profitable in my opinion.

I think that high quality smartphone games will put a huge dent into the handheld market.

I am not bullish about Nintendo's hardware business.  Maybe they will pull a Sega and turn itself into a game studio/software company.  Nintendo might do better than Sega as long as its "magic" is still there.  Some game studios such as Blizzard are able to put out hit after hit after hit (Blizzard is extremely unusual because it often cancels games completely and has such a ridiculous track record of success).  Management is everything.

*I haven't really researched this company.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on December 20, 2012, 01:16:37 PM
Immersion is a big issue with touch based games... I don't really think the free bus ride type of games like Angry Birds and Wordfeud are threat to what Nintendo does either. From my perspective they are to console gaming what Youtube is to the cinemas. What could potentially be problem for Nintendo is price-point anchoring. While Square Enix games for IoS are very expensive compared to other games on the same platform, they are still cheaper even than their 3DS games. This could potentially prove problematic even if I'm pretty sure that most of the games in those genres are considerably worse gaming experiences on tablets. A high-selling and well-functioning game pad for tablet use could change that pretty quickly, though. I really don't know why there isn't one already. Technically that should be a piece of cake.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: cpan on December 20, 2012, 01:24:23 PM
I think the app deluge does hurt nintendo because it took away the incentive for people to buy games for their kids.  It seems to me that kids are not really picky about the quality of games being played (neither are the parents actually).  This makes it harder to get people to pay up for the quality IPs that nintendo have.  When there was only 2-3 game consoles plus PC software, they owned a share of the market no matter what since if you want a game for kids you know to go with nintendo.  Now,  the distribution channel is wide open (kind of like network TV actually) so they really have to differentiate which is hard to do especially when other people are giving away their IP for free. 

I guess I'll pass on this one unless it falls a lot below tangible book.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on December 20, 2012, 01:43:59 PM
I think the app deluge does hurt nintendo because it took away the incentive for people to buy games for their kids.  It seems to me that kids are not really picky about the quality of games being played (neither are the parents actually).  This makes it harder to get people to pay up for the quality IPs that nintendo have.  When there was only 2-3 game consoles plus PC software, they owned a share of the market no matter what since if you want a game for kids you know to go with nintendo.  Now,  the distribution channel is wide open (kind of like network TV actually) so they really have to differentiate which is hard to do especially when other people are giving away their IP for free. 

I guess I'll pass on this one unless it falls a lot below tangible book.
I don't agree. Maybe 5-6 year olds aren't so picky and are quite easily amused with simpler games like slicing fruits and such. But there is a reason why people are committing their lives to playing WOW and not Angry Birds. The 3DS is outpacing the DS (which just surpassed the PS2 as the highest selling system of all time - 154 million) in sales right now. Admittedly, they are not making money on the hardware, which Nintendo always used to, but if the tie ratio is anywhere close to where it was historically for handhelds it will prove a success in terms of profits.

People are confusing the secular trough that the gaming industry is going through now with the ultimate demise of it. Problem for me is even if I can clearly see that, this doesn't make Nintendo a clear winner by default.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: eclecticvalue on December 20, 2012, 01:53:41 PM
I find gaming apps=appetizers. Only great for 5 minutes then want to move on to something else.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: cpan on December 20, 2012, 02:04:31 PM
Totally agree with the comment about secular trough vs demise.  Its just not obvious who will stand at the end.  I guess its like any tech company (its hard to pick the winners).   Good point about the 3DS.  There does seem to be an age segment where 3ds should do well due to the toughness of the hardware as compare to an ipod. 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on December 20, 2012, 02:26:08 PM
alwaysinvert

there is rumor that microsoft is working on an surface xbox

hy
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on December 21, 2012, 09:09:35 AM
Hitting new lows. Does the market know something about the holiday season already? I haven't seen any signs in any direction yet, other than that people in my vicinity don't know squat about the Wii U (someone thought it was like the PS3 Slim). They aren't the main audience either on the other hand.

An article on the TVii:

http://www.ign.com/articles/2012/12/21/my-evening-with-nintendo-tvii

The sports watching seems really neat. If I could get some similar functions for soccer games, I would certainly consider buying the console just for that :)

 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on December 21, 2012, 09:44:04 AM
Sometimes Amazon is a good place to do scuttlebutt research for its large number of unbiased reviews (at least, I hope that there aren't too many fake reviews on it):

http://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-Wii-Console-Black-Deluxe-U/dp/B009AGXH64/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on December 21, 2012, 10:28:05 AM
Sometimes Amazon is a good place to do scuttlebutt research for its large number of unbiased reviews (at least, I hope that there aren't too many fake reviews on it):

http://www.amazon.com/Nintendo-Wii-Console-Black-Deluxe-U/dp/B009AGXH64/
Yes, I guess it has some value. I have been going on different boards to get a feel for the sentiment as well and overall it's been very positive from owners.

The inherent problem is that those who bought early firstly are Nintendo fanboys for the most part and secondly will always be happier with the product than the general market. I think it was Dan Ariely who made an experiment on the value of cups to people in an auction and there was a huge gap in the appraisals of the ones who already owned the cups and what they were willing to sell them for versus those who where bidding to buy them. Even so I also think there is a skewedness in that the satisfied ones are more prone to write reviews too. Maybe the very unsatisfied people are likely to write as well, but those who find the products mediocre seldom do (and provided it's somewhat normally distributed, which seems likely, you are going to get a biased picture from that too). Just look at IMDB and you see how out of proportion 10 and 1 star ratings are, for example.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Rabbitisrich on December 21, 2012, 03:31:28 PM
Start with the 3 star reviews. They tend to run through the pros and cons in a relatively dispassionate manner.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: negative alpha on January 11, 2013, 02:42:44 PM
Jan. 10, 2013

With more than 460,000 units sold in December, Wii U has now sold nearly 890,000 units in the United States after only 41 days on the market, according to the NPD Group. To date, Wii U hardware sales have generated more than $300 million in the U.S. alone; Wii hardware had generated just more than $270 million at the same point in its lifecycle.


http://press.nintendo.com/articles.jsp?id=36854 (http://press.nintendo.com/articles.jsp?id=36854)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: negative alpha on January 16, 2013, 10:39:03 PM
Nintendo's Wii U and 3DS consoles haven't performed badly so far, but there's a real sense that they may not match their predecessors' huge success. According to a Nikkei report, however, the company plans to merge both divisions into a single unit in a month's time, and will invest 30 billion yen (about $340 million) in a new Kyoto development facility to be opened by the end of the year. The structural shift is intended to speed up development by allowing the previously separate divisions to share knowledge and technology.

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/16/3881770/nintendo-to-unify-console-and-handheld-divisions-in-major (http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/16/3881770/nintendo-to-unify-console-and-handheld-divisions-in-major)

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Green King on January 16, 2013, 10:45:35 PM
Nintendo's Wii U and 3DS consoles haven't performed badly so far, but there's a real sense that they may not match their predecessors' huge success. According to a Nikkei report, however, the company plans to merge both divisions into a single unit in a month's time, and will invest 30 billion yen (about $340 million) in a new Kyoto development facility to be opened by the end of the year. The structural shift is intended to speed up development by allowing the previously separate divisions to share knowledge and technology.

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/16/3881770/nintendo-to-unify-console-and-handheld-divisions-in-major (http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/16/3881770/nintendo-to-unify-console-and-handheld-divisions-in-major)

WTF they are just doing that!! I thought every company that is competing have broken down their silos.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on January 17, 2013, 05:28:23 AM
The new Animal Crossing for the 3DS is doing pretty well in Japan... Sold 2.2m copies since release in October and it's yet to be released in the West.

Total top 10 weekly figures for Japan:

1   3DS   Animal Crossing: New Leaf   134,535
2   3DS   New Super Mario Bros. 2   92,047
3   3DS   Paper Mario: Sticker Star   66,071
4   WiiU   New Super Mario Bros. U   49,691
5   3DS   Inazuma Eleven Go 2: Chrono Stone   49,020
6   WiiU   Nintendo Land   40,920
7   PSP   One Piece: Romance Dawn - Bouken no Yoake   39,802
8   3DS   Fantasy Life   39,308
9   3DS   Magician's Quest: Town of Magic   36,978
10   3DS   Tousouchuu: Shijou Saikyou no Hunter-Tachi Kara Nigekire!   33,794


Safe to say Nintendo is dominating in the home country. And the Ipad worry is way overblown at least for the Japanese market.

I do however think that Nintendo has made a mistake in not differentiating the U from the previous Wii more. People haven't really started to catch on to this new console at all, even if sales are good and seems to be supply constrained thus far (probably on purpose as usual). The pricing strategy is interesting - no one seems to want the smaller package and why should they? With its ridiculously limited harddrive the higher priced alternative compares very favourably even though the margin for those must be much better. Smart from Nintendo.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=151051&page=1
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: stahleyp on February 20, 2013, 07:21:15 PM
With the PS4 officially announced, has anyone taken a look any more at this one?

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Nintendo gets out of hardware and goes the route of Sega. The Wii U sales have been pretty bad.

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/30/3931748/nintendo-cuts-sales-forecasts-q3-financials

Assuming this happens, I wonder how much the company is worth mostly on the software side? Pokemon/Mario would be ideal for phones and Zelda and other more complex games would be big sellers on Xbox and PS4, I'd imagine.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Shawn on February 20, 2013, 08:01:44 PM
With the PS4 officially announced, has anyone taken a look any more at this one?

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Nintendo gets out of hardware and goes the route of Sega. The Wii U sales have been pretty bad.

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/30/3931748/nintendo-cuts-sales-forecasts-q3-financials

Assuming this happens, I wonder how much the company is worth mostly on the software side? Pokemon/Mario would be ideal for phones and Zelda and other more complex games would be big sellers on Xbox and PS4, I'd imagine.


Nintendo won't EVER go the way of SEGA. SEGA was poorly managed, rushing consoles and was borrowing more money than it could. Nintendo is sitting on too much cash and is very well managed. If you said Sony might go the route of SEGA I think you'd have a good point. I feel as tho Nintendo rushed the Wii U and tried to be too revolutionary a second time around. It's ok as a console but I think it lacks in 3rd party support and a strong line up of games at the moment.

The PS4 sounds like it's going to be amazing but lets wait and see what the price looks like before we jump to conclusion. So far the games lined up to launch with it look unbelievably fantastic and some of the features they got are on a whole nother level. I'm curious to see what it looks like & what the price is.

Nintendo will be fine long term.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: eclecticvalue on February 20, 2013, 09:50:09 PM
scc, you pretty much hit on the points of lack of 3rd party support and strong titles. I was reading that independent developers want to develop for Nintendo but Nintendo has not been friendly same with microsoft and sony. It seems Nintendo wants to survive on first party titles. Nintendo is an integrated videogame company. Not a conglomerate like Sony and Microsoft.  They could take the indie games market among consoles but it seems they love their own work. The reason smartphones and PC games will do well is because the approval process for indie games is quick for smartphones. The cost to even start developing games for consoles is expensive and bureaucratic. Look at Rovio the maker for angry birds they are making bank because they can churn out variations of their games very easily. The console makers want AAA developers/publishers making big budget games but I think it will go on for so long until the crowd gets tired.

For Nintendo, making games for other consoles wouldn't be great because they would not have control and be under the whim of Sony and Microsoft ( we haven't seen what console microsoft is bringing to the table) TBH, sony and microsoft haven't been innovators in the video game space.

Nintendo needs to have a solid showing at E3 and release amazing first party titles and I think it will be back in business.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: stahleyp on February 21, 2013, 05:08:35 AM
good points, ssc. Do you think nintendo will still be making consoles/handhelds 10 years from now? Wasn't there a lot of concern (perhaps just hype) that they were going to be software only, like sega, after the lackluster success of gamecube?

I just don't see it. Console gaming seems to be dying. Now, maybe because I'm getting older and I'm not into it nearly as much, but I used to love this stuff with a passion.  I don't even know of anyone with a wii u.  Smart phones are also rapidly replacing the need for separate handhelds. Yeah, the experience is more robust on handhelds for now, but how long will it be until that changes?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Shawn on February 22, 2013, 02:12:42 PM
scc, you pretty much hit on the points of lack of 3rd party support and strong titles. I was reading that independent developers want to develop for Nintendo but Nintendo has not been friendly same with microsoft and sony. It seems Nintendo wants to survive on first party titles. Nintendo is an integrated videogame company. Not a conglomerate like Sony and Microsoft.  They could take the indie games market among consoles but it seems they love their own work. The reason smartphones and PC games will do well is because the approval process for indie games is quick for smartphones. The cost to even start developing games for consoles is expensive and bureaucratic. Look at Rovio the maker for angry birds they are making bank because they can churn out variations of their games very easily. The console makers want AAA developers/publishers making big budget games but I think it will go on for so long until the crowd gets tired.

For Nintendo, making games for other consoles wouldn't be great because they would not have control and be under the whim of Sony and Microsoft ( we haven't seen what console microsoft is bringing to the table) TBH, sony and microsoft haven't been innovators in the video game space.

Nintendo needs to have a solid showing at E3 and release amazing first party titles and I think it will be back in business.

I agree friend, good post.

good points, ssc. Do you think nintendo will still be making consoles/handhelds 10 years from now? Wasn't there a lot of concern (perhaps just hype) that they were going to be software only, like sega, after the lackluster success of gamecube?

I just don't see it. Console gaming seems to be dying. Now, maybe because I'm getting older and I'm not into it nearly as much, but I used to love this stuff with a passion.  I don't even know of anyone with a wii u.  Smart phones are also rapidly replacing the need for separate handhelds. Yeah, the experience is more robust on handhelds for now, but how long will it be until that changes?

I most definitely do believe they'll still be around in 10 years. Nintendo has created brands that have taken lives of their own, have cult followings & are "bigger" than Nintendo. Nintendo is like the "Disney of Gaming". I don't wrong them for wanting to go the software route tho. If my 2 competitors were EXPERTS in hardware I wouldn't try to fight them at their game either. Nintendo has never been known for hardware - it was their games that set them apart from the rest. That's where their strength is & if you look throughout time they've gotten incredibly better at making them.

Even if smartphones/tablets change the need, I would think Nintendo would prefer that versus having hardware to develop. I don't know the future of gaming but this shift to a more digital climate would likely favor Nintendo.

You know what's crazy tho ? I was thinking about that a while ago, Nintendo when you look at the 80s till now hasn't really changed much. We just grew up. It's still the same types of games. It's just hard to feel the same way we did playing Mario Bros 3 now than it was when we were children. Our perceptions have changed, however, that's not going to stop generations of future children & moms/dads looking for games to buy for their children. I think that form of nostalgia becomes a brilliant selling point.

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Shawn on February 22, 2013, 02:15:09 PM
Btw in terms of investment I think NTDOY is at a 30 year low.....

As a business I don't think it's that phenomenal (I'm basing that assessment mostly on ROE) but I wouldn't turn it away just off that metric. I think if NTDOY fell much lower than it is today I would definitely grab it.

It's definitely the better alternative to Sony tho....
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: stahleyp on February 22, 2013, 05:21:36 PM
ahh, I was re-reading this a bit ssc after you mentioned that they'll be around 10 years from now. I firmly believe that as well. I don't think I was clear after re-reading my sega comment. I didn't mean they (though I can see how you might have inferred it - my bad) that they'd be gone. I simply meant they'd be out of the hardware business. I do think there is an excellent chance that wii u will be there last traditional console and maybe one more version of a handheld. But I wonder how much the business is worth software only? That is a very real and distinct possibility. Do you guys think they'll still be doing hardware 10 years from now?'

by the way, I believe it was in the $9s in 2003 and $7 in 1994(ADRs)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on February 22, 2013, 06:38:16 PM
stahleyp

i didn't check it myself, but did ntdoy have as much cash as they have now back in 2003 and 1994

what was their ev back then, i guess can't just solely look at the stocks per share

i guess put it another way when did ntdoy have the lowest EV per share now or in 2003, 1994?

hy
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: stahleyp on February 22, 2013, 07:42:05 PM
hyten, I don't know but I doubt they had nearly as much cash in 94, but I found 2003's information. I went to check but it's not on there site.

http://www.nintendo.com/corp/annual_report.jsp

For 03 they had about $6.3 billion cash/st investments. Now they have $14 billion (and a total of about $4 in liabilities - 2011).  We're not even talking about any other assets.

Now, if someone could take control of the company, this could work out really, really well. How do we know they won't spend it on bringing out new consoles? I'd buy that the games/franchises are worth significantly more than $3 billion (I think the total market cap is $13 billion).


For what it's worth, I hope Nintendo does well. I had Super Mario wallpaper trim and giant stickers in my bed room growing up!  8)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on February 22, 2013, 08:56:45 PM
Pretty much no blockbusters are out for Wii U yet - Mario Kart, Zelda, 3d Mario etc. In addition we don't even know what games some of their studios, like for example Retro Studios, are working on. I don't quite get why the early release schedule for the U is THAT empty (it's common that there is a bit of a no-mans-land after the release titles because developers want to be in for the launch and holiday season) since that's exactly the problem that lead in part to the early price drop on the 3DS. The line-up for the 3DS looks very strong, with among other things Pokemon coming out in the fall and Animal Crossing due for release in the West.

I just can't see the scenario where they squander their cash. In this pretty severe trough they haven't lost that much money and cashflows are bound to be better in the next few years with hardware sales hitting breakeven/profitability and the user base being bigger.

I'ts nigh impossible to quantify the upside in this case but the downside is what? Worst case they'll not turn profitable and will just sit on most of the cash, but even in that case I don't see how you lose out all that much at today's price. Not even if the yen falls further because much of the cash is in other currencies and they will be able to make higher margins on sales abroad in such a case. Sure, the sales have shifted more towards Japan in the recent slump but I think it's still reasonable that they will make 60-70% of their business abroad in the coming years.

I STILL don't own any stock, though.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: stahleyp on February 22, 2013, 09:14:07 PM
what's stopping you from pulling the trigger, invert?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: eclecticvalue on March 12, 2013, 05:33:40 PM
Check this article out and the video http://www.polygon.com/2013/3/12/4089612/shigeru-miyamoto-interview-wii-u-3ds (http://www.polygon.com/2013/3/12/4089612/shigeru-miyamoto-interview-wii-u-3ds)

It explains very well what is Nintendo's secret sauce. The comments are a good read.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on June 11, 2013, 06:41:35 AM
I don't know if anyone else is following E3, but Nintendo's presentation focusing on the Wii U is coming up shortly. Should be interesting to see what they have up their sleeve to salvage the Wii U sales. Neither Sony or Microsoft (especially not Microsoft) lit the world on fire with their presentations, so the table is set for Nintendo to 'win' E3.

Expected major stuff:

New Mario Kart
New Mario 3D game
New Super Smash Bros
Unveiling of Monolith Softs game (probably a new Xeno-game)
Unveiling of Retro Studios title (possibly new Metroid game)
Some previously unknown titles from internal Nintendo divisions

Possibly a new Zelda will be discussed too (apart from the rebooting of Wind Waker), but that title is most probably further out than the other ones.


http://e3.nintendo.com/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on June 12, 2013, 06:56:28 PM
i have a small position in ntdoy

http://www.theverge.com/2013/6/12/4422020/why-nintendo-wont-make-smartphone-games

very interesting, i am still thinking about this
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: LC on June 12, 2013, 08:36:34 PM
I totally agree. For Nintendo, their lifeline is their blockbuster characters. Mario sells Wii units, not the other way around.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on June 13, 2013, 02:51:59 PM
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/130612/01.html

E3 Q&A

Quote
If one were to take a pessimistic view of the future of dedicated gaming systems due to the rise of smart devices, then one would expect that for structural reasons handheld devices would be hit hardest. But the data shows that this is not necessarily the case.

Quote
Nintendo 3DS has been gaining momentum since March of this year due to our back-to-back releases of key titles. I think we have been able to take advantage of Nintendo’s unique position of being able to provide markets with a strong first-party software lineup to energize its hardware sales.
Some worry that an intensive release pace this year might result in a poor first-party software lineup next year.
However, our internal software development teams are now at a stage where we can expect software launches without too many intervals. We still have many unannounced game titles. Therefore, we expect to release a sufficient number of first-party titles for the platform next year as well.


Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on July 22, 2013, 06:51:49 AM
anyone following this? i have a medium size position

i think there is a lot of value here (less so now since it has gone up recently), now in terms of catalyst or when it will be realize i have no  idea

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on September 09, 2013, 10:02:11 AM
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-09/another-nintendo-sell-off-deepens-doubts-about-youth-gameplan#r=rss (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-09/another-nintendo-sell-off-deepens-doubts-about-youth-gameplan#r=rss)

Another Nintendo Selloff Deepens Doubts About Youth Game Plan
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on September 19, 2013, 05:18:07 AM
Hiroshi Yamauchi dies: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-24160150
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on October 17, 2013, 08:45:24 PM
http://www.engadget.com/2013/10/17/wii-u-sales-jump/?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000601
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on January 08, 2014, 09:00:41 AM


Nintendo: consoling news
 




http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/0c289404-782b-11e3-831c-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2peR8ivRx (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/0c289404-782b-11e3-831c-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2peR8ivRx)


Licensing characters will do more than China’s lifting of ban on foreign consoles



Now that China will permit the sale of foreign game consoles, suppose Nintendo sells its Wii U at, say, $300 to, say, 2 per cent of the Chinese population. The company’s revenues would double! The 11 per cent pop in Nintendo’s shares following the news is just the start!




 
This is utter nonsense, of course, but nonsense of a very traditional sort. When any company enters China, multiply everything in sight by a huge number.
 
In fact, the news from Beijing does not justify Nintendo’s price surge. Microsoft’s Xbox One and Sony’s PlayStation 4, released in November, prove there is still global interest in consoles. The two have sold more than 7m between them. The Wii U, a year older, has done less well, but product problems aside, China would be a more interesting proposition if it were not for its lively grey market. Xboxes and PSes abound, alongside knock-offs and something Lenovo passes off as a “sports machine”. Online gaming also accounts for over half the Chinese market already, PwC reckons, and has grown at 11 per cent a year since 2008.
 
The possibility that Nintendo will licence its characters for use on other companies’ mobile devices is more significant. Few rivals can beat its library, which stretches from Pokemon to Super Mario. However, Nintendo is expected to produce only just over half its March year-end Y100bn operating profit target. It has so far refused to consider licensing but some investors are betting on a thaw. This optimism goes some way to explaining Nintendo’s 70 per cent gain (compared with a quarter for the wider market) since June. And Satoru Iwata, its president, said recently that Nintendo was looking at how to use smart devices rather than considering them competitors. There is now $8bn on the table – the growth in market capitalisation since June – which says that means Mario will soon appear on a smartphone.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on January 19, 2014, 06:06:58 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25805136

Quote
Shares of Japan's Nintendo have plunged 18% in early trade on Monday after the gaming giant issued a profit warning.

On Friday, Nintendo said it expects to make an operating loss of 35bn yen ($335m; Ł205m) for the financial year ending 31 March 2014.

It had initially forecast an operating profit of 100bn yen for the period.

The company blamed weaker-than-expected sales of its Wii U console during the holiday season for the downgrade in its earnings forecast.

As a result, it lowered its global Wii U sales forecast for the business year from nine million to 2.8 million units - a cut of nearly 70%.

Nintendo also reduced the sales forecast for its 3DS console from 18 million to 13.5 million units.

The firm's shares fell to as low as 11,935 yen on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: yadayada on January 20, 2014, 02:42:22 AM
What nintendo needs are several block busters with amazing gameplay. They used to have that with golden eye, conker's bad fur day, perfect dark with the nintendo 64, innovating in every genre. And mario and zelda were actually big innovators too back then. Just seems that Mario and zelda are now titles that mostly get alot of love from nostalgic gamers, and they are missing a complete set of killer games to make up for the lack of graphics. There is sonic and rayman on other consoles that are also platformers, that can easily compete with mario.

Ps4 and xbox one both have a solid set of games I would love to try some day, and nintendo is missing that. Seems that if they want to survive, they need to release a bigger variety of amazing indy games to survive, and really kill it in that area. Few people buy a Wii for mario and zelda alone, if they can play amazing games in that genre on the xbox one or ps4. And with the latter they can also play those new story games with amazing graphics.

Just look at the titles:
http://www.metacritic.com/browse/games/release-date/available/wii-u/metascore?view=condensed

Only 2 unique Wii U only titles in a pretty niche genre that didn't really innovate much.

If you look at the ps3 for example:
http://www.metacritic.com/browse/games/release-date/available/ps3/metascore?view=condensed

They have a wide variety of classics that are not ps3 only, but also were the first to innovate in story action games with amazing graphics. The last of us and uncharted were reason for alot of people to buy a ps3 alone. The last of us especially was a huge innovation as it felt like a really polished interactive tv show with amazing graphics, but also fun gameplay. And then you also had to option to play alot of other classics as well in a variety of genres like gran turismo, God of war and metal gear solid. As well with the option of playing games that you could play on the xbox and pc.

And microsoft innovated online console gaming with call of duty. Had unique titles like Halo, but really were the first to take online gaming mainstream.

And looking at the nintendo 64 back then, if you used to be into games, you recognize alot of amazing classics in a wide variety of genres:

http://www.dorkly.com/article/28002/the-top-25-n64-games-of-all-time/page:5

What they did is they innovated game play mostly. And there is still alot of room left there: alot of large studios are now playing it safe and not taking risks releasing formulaic games with just nice graphics. It seems if they want to survive, they cannot bank on just mario, zelda and pokemon, but they need to take some serious creative risks and come up with classic Wii U only titles in every genre. So far I dont really see this happening yet.

Just my 2 cents as someone who likes video games :) .


Edit: to add, pikmin 3 is another wii u title that claims to innovate on gameplay, but is lagging behind alot in graphics really. Gameplay is really difficult to market, and lagging behind on graphics really is a bad all around marketing strategy.

Reviewer who gives this game a 10/10 sums it up pretty well:
"Pikmin 3 might not be the game that gets people rushing to buy a Wii U, but it certainly should be."

I do think that graphics are now levelling out, as the added value is diminishing. The play station 4 and xbox one will probably be around longer then their predecessors. And nintendo really has a shot at catching up here if they release a similar console.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on January 20, 2014, 05:34:40 AM
N64 wasn't a financial or sales success, so seems a rather odd example to use. Of the three games you mention, only Goldeneye was a system seller. Conker sold hardly anything and had a limited release right in the last dying hours of the console cycle. Sonic and Rayman are not even on a level adjacent to Mario in terms of sales.

Call of Duty is not a Microsoft game.

The evidence for graphics as a way to success is mixed at best.

NES was not as advanced as MasterSystem but still won big. SNES was more advanced than Genesis but way less than the Neo Geo and won. N64 was more advanced than both PS and Saturn, but lost big to PS. Gamecube was more advanced than PS2 and maybe on par or a little less so than Xbox, but PS2 mopped the floor with the other two. Wii was way less advanced than PS3 and the 360 and won hands down.

And as for Game Boy and all its handheld successors... they were always way, way behind the opposition in strength, but no other system has been more than a blip on the radar on that market, really. Game Boy in the early days were up against color screens with 16-bit graphics and still won the day.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: yadayada on January 20, 2014, 07:21:24 AM
hmm i guess you are right. I grew up upper middle class, and everyone had one. And it seems that if they didnt use the more expensive cartridges and werent so anal to developers (would have gone more quantity instead of quality) it would have had equal sales numbers to the playstation. But quality wasn't the issue there. They did innovate pretty well with the n64. And xbox 360 was mostly used for multiplayer, even tho call of duty was released for all platforms. Xbox live was superior to the ps3 multiplayer system.

I am seeing a pattern here tho. Whenever they innovate (and dont do dumb stuff like with n64) they kill. The Wii U doesnt relaly innovate. The game cube didnt really innovate. You cannot simply copy sony or microsoft and expect similar sales. Mario and zelda alone wont get you the killer console sales.

If graphics dont matter, then why would people  buy a wiiu over a wii?

Gameboy and the DS captured basicly a non existent mobile gaming market. But with smartphones around now, that seems to be a shitty enviroment to be in.

I think gameplay by moving around like with the wii and now the xbox kinect is also a no go area.

And grahpics do really add something, they can make a game really immersive if it is combined with a decent to good story. Sales of uncharted and the last of us are a prime example. But it needs a good story and decent gameplay attached to it for it to really be a good selling point. Then it is 1+1=3 .

So yeah graphics wont add much with wii sports type games, or with crappy all around gameplay and story.

How would you say they could innovate?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: yadayada on January 20, 2014, 08:12:12 AM
I supose the largest Wii U mistakes were:

1. not releasing all their blockbuster nintendo titles when they launched the console. Focussing too much on being the first next gen. But they forgot people buy these things for the games
2. No achievements. Social gaming is huge, and nintendo ignored this.
3. poor All around marketing
4. naming it wii U. Alot of people thought it was some upgrade of the wii, without any games. They couldnt even innovate on naming their new console!
5. No new franchise, you cannot milk mario and zelda forever
6. this new console has almost no innovation or added value over the regular wii
7. Not being able to play blockbuster titles like GTA 5. Scaring away all the developers, and focussing too much on too few titles. Why not give people the option to play popular games that are released on all platforms? Unless ofcourse they could come up with their own succesfull franchises...
8. Pricing of the console. This seems to be a recurring nintendo theme, making stuff too expensive when catering to a young audience. And as far as the casual audience, just buying cheap apps on the phone is much cheaper.

Seems like some of these mistakes are really large blunders, and might indicate alot of stupid politics in upper management that is preventing them from innovation? It just seems they are out of touch with what people like.

But with china coming in, and with alot of their classics finally coming out in 2014, they look to be well positioned to make some nice sales in china? Wouldn't touch it untill it gets really cheap maybe. 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on January 20, 2014, 08:38:50 AM
hmm i guess you are right. I grew up upper middle class, and everyone had one. And it seems that if they didnt use the more expensive cartridges and werent so anal to developers (would have gone more quantity instead of quality) it would have had equal sales numbers to the playstation. But quality wasn't the issue there. They did innovate pretty well with the n64. And xbox 360 was mostly used for multiplayer, even tho call of duty was released for all platforms. Xbox live was superior to the ps3 multiplayer system.

In the US perhaps, which is the only major market in which Microsoft has had real success.

I am seeing a pattern here tho. Whenever they innovate (and dont do dumb stuff like with n64) they kill. The Wii U doesnt relaly innovate. The game cube didnt really innovate. You cannot simply copy sony or microsoft and expect similar sales. Mario and zelda alone wont get you the killer console sales.

If graphics dont matter, then why would people  buy a wiiu over a wii?

Because of the touch-screen controller that innovates gaming. Or at least that was Nintendo's aim. An aim which has been severely compromised by brand confusion and the fact that no games actually use the touch-screen for any really immersive or revolutionary gameplay. Anyhow, Nintendo's internal analysis for the last 10 or so years is that each product needs a unique selling point, and good graphics just isn't that. And in addition it's really expensive and therefore high-risk.

Gameboy and the DS captured basicly a non existent mobile gaming market. But with smartphones around now, that seems to be a shitty enviroment to be in.
So the story goes, but there isn't all that much evidence that this is what's playing out in the segment as of yet. The 3DS is doing pretty well sales-wise (not as well as the DS did, but that's an extremely tough benchmark) and it has a strong library of critically acclaimed titles with lots more to come.

How would you say they could innovate?
I don't know, that's why I'm not a designer at Nintendo. What I do know is that they have the most talented workforce in the business and the most valuable portfolio. What they lack is a viable business model. That's not to say that Microsoft's or Sony's is any better long-term.

It's hard to make any insightful analysis. The Wii was looked upon with scorn before release and it's success was completely unpredictable. Same thing with DS. What do you make of that? A post hoc analysis is bound to be extremely flawed.

Maybe third-party is the solution, maybe not. I think it would mitigate risk and at the same time allow the company to free up departments to explore new avenues from time to time, instead of just developing pre-existing IPs. Earlier, the company has done a good job of innovating inside their old IPs, but with the current trajectory there seems to be a real risk of stagnation if they have to only keep propping up ailing systems with dependable titles.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on January 22, 2014, 06:21:48 PM
interesting read "Everything You’re Thinking About Nintendo Is Totally Wrong"

http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2014/01/nintendo-mobile/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Palantir on January 22, 2014, 07:58:09 PM
^Excellent article, sounds like apple before it's rise.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on January 29, 2014, 05:47:19 PM
The buyback is probably related to the death of Hiroshi Yamauchi and his stake coming to market. While I don't fault them for making buybacks at this point, it's still disturbing that they have had the chance to do it for quite a while and this stated window for buybacks is just silly. Two months! Bound to make the buys much dearer than needed.

This will probably be an interesting business case study in a few years no matter how it turns out. I feel like I may have made a mistake not buying in the $11-$12 range, but after that the fundamentals have in my view deteriorated, or at least not improved, while the stock price has jumped quite a bit. I'm not saying it's not justified, but if there was a margin of safety when it traded just above cash holdings, I have a harder time finding it now. 

It will take at least 3 years* before they can leverage revenue and earnings even if they manage to stem the bleeding for now. With a lower price I will be interested again, but for that to happen it seems the tides must turn on Japan again.

*Obviously a guess, but if they don't support the Wii U for another few years, they will lose a lot of trust in the market, see Sega for precedent. And anyhow, the R&D on the the upcoming console cycle can't be far along as of yet, if they even know the direction at all.

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/01/29/live-nintendos-strategy-briefing-to-address-future-direction/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on January 29, 2014, 05:58:50 PM
Quote
What’s Mr. Iwata going to focus on for the next 10 years? The main theme: enhancing the quality of life through entertainment. The key word is health, Mr. Iwata says. Citing a flood of wearable devices already on the market, he says Nintendo is trying out something completely new: non-wearables to monitor your health.

Kooky as always.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on February 19, 2014, 11:49:08 PM
Copycat ‘Mario’ Game Lures Users as Nintendo Resists Smartphones




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-20/copycat-mario-game-lures-users-as-nintendo-resists-smartphones.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-20/copycat-mario-game-lures-users-as-nintendo-resists-smartphones.html)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on March 17, 2015, 07:46:44 AM
Looks like Nintendo will do games for smartphones. Finally.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: adesigar on March 17, 2015, 08:38:05 AM
Looks like Nintendo will do games for smartphones. Finally.

Finally real games on smartphones/tablets and not the Birds/Candy/Farm crap. Cant wait to see what Shigeru Miyamoto comes up with.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on March 17, 2015, 10:22:21 AM
Looks like Nintendo will do games for smartphones. Finally.

Finally real games on smartphones/tablets and not the Birds/Candy/Farm crap. Cant wait to see what Shigeru Miyamoto comes up with.

I've been enjoying Alto's Adventure on iOS lately, I recommend it.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on March 18, 2015, 06:59:45 AM
That's some insane market moves on something we don't know much about yet...
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on March 18, 2015, 07:21:41 AM
That's some insane market moves on something we don't know much about yet...

True. But with a few billion smartphones out there, stopping ignoring that market certainly isn't trivial.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: merkhet on March 18, 2015, 07:32:45 AM
A thought just popped into my head -- is Nintendo the Disney of video games? A ton of nostalgia-inducing titles that they can repurpose for new formats?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: yadayada on March 18, 2015, 08:02:26 AM
no they are not. For starters there is now more easy access to information. Part of the reason disney had pricing power was because often you did not know much about products, and people would pay up for disney products because it was safe. You could not go on the internet to look up reviews like you can now. Some unknown studio can release a new animation film, and be a massive hit, much harder back then. Cost of producing these things has also gone down, so scale is not much of a problem to overcome for competition.

And finally they need to release new products. People are not buying the old mario games, they are buying newer versions of the new mario games as new consoles get released. Making these things is still expensive. Allthough they have better margins then other game companies, as their costs are lower.

What I find interesting in this space right now is the steambox. It is little known now (will be released this year), but it could be big in the future, and change the console/video game market. Could even be another threat for microsoft, as it legitimizes linux, with the steamOS, with an enourmous library of entertainment on steam.

I dont think any entertainment company will ever have an edge as disney had in the past in the internet era. Also part of Disney's edge is their entertainment parks? In general i think the internet has killed a lot of edges companies had because of information assymetry. A company like Nintendo will have to rely a lot more on making quality entertainment. If you create one dud, a competitor can quickly create a better version of your game like happened with this game:
http://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/cities-skylines

It will go viral, and be a huge hit. I think they spent little on marketing and it was built by like 10 or 15 people, but will probably sell more copies then the latest sim city game. All they had to do was saying that their version would not suck. If something is bad a lot of people will quickly find out now. And if some better alternative will come a long, people will also find out quickly about that. So that new company will not have to spend a lot of money on marketing and can spend more on making it a good product.

I would not want to invest in any game or movie business now really. Seems like a crap business. One screw up and your brand name is severely damaged.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: berkshire101 on March 18, 2015, 08:04:09 AM
A thought just popped into my head -- is Nintendo the Disney of video games? A ton of nostalgia-inducing titles that they can repurpose for new formats?

I'm surprised Nintendo hasn't just simply copied Disney's business model.  They could've easily started a cable channel, open a Nintendo theme park, license their video game music, etc.  Disney is pulling a Nintendo by entering the gaming market lately.  Maybe Disney will buy Nintendo one day and start their own video game console.  Makes sense.

I think Nintendo has the franchises and characters to really become the next Disney.  I wonder why they're not seeing this potential yet!!!
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ZenaidaMacroura on March 18, 2015, 10:04:54 AM
I had a fairly sizeable nintendo position before the WiiU came out -partly due to the strength of their franchises/and the  bevy of potential catalysts (like this one).  I sold at a slight loss a bit later after I thought it was clear that nintendo would NOT migrate from their native console.

That said, I think the brand power/disney model potential is there.  Not to discount what YadaYada said but even today with the internet, new iternations of previous franchises do have a nostalgia effect and it does induce people to take another look... Look at pokemon - a string of games each doing successively better that the previous generation.  And that game is reptitive as hell.   They just need to better utilize their franchises before they go the way of sonic/sega.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on March 18, 2015, 10:24:32 AM
Nintendo has loads of pricing power on their software. They never discount their AAA titles and there's no need for it.

And it's not entirely true that people aren't buying old games either. Nintendo has rereleased multiple classics to good sales figures. Right now a fifteen year old Zelda game is topping sales charts - at full price.

Now, it's another question if this pricing power is transferable to mobile. No one else has done very well with charging console system prices on mobile. That's why the stock price action is astounding to me.   
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: adesigar on March 18, 2015, 10:53:25 AM
Nintendo has loads of pricing power on their software. They never discount their AAA titles and there's no need for it.

And it's not entirely true that people aren't buying old games either. Nintendo has rereleased multiple classics to good sales figures. Right now a fifteen year old Zelda game is topping sales charts - at full price.

Now, it's another question if this pricing power is transferable to mobile. No one else has done very well with charging console system prices on mobile. That's why the stock price action is astounding to me.


Squaresoft is charging $15.99 for some of their 20 year old Final Fantasy titles.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/final-fantasy-vi/id719401490?mt=8
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/final-fantasy-v/id609577016?mt=8

I recently bought apps for my daughter for the ipad. Company is called Originator
Endless reader school edition $30 - https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/endless-reader-school-edition/id873347064?mt=8





Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: mateo999 on March 18, 2015, 10:55:07 AM
Prior to Apple beginning its bond issuance / buyback scheme, I always wondered why it wouldn't try to buy Nintendo.  Apple could have used a bunch of offshore yen, could have exclusive rights to mario, link, etc. and at the time when ATV was even more of a "hobby", get a bigger foothold in the living room.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: adesigar on March 18, 2015, 11:11:46 AM
Prior to Apple beginning its bond issuance / buyback scheme, I always wondered why it wouldn't try to buy Nintendo.  Apple could have used a bunch of offshore yen, could have exclusive rights to mario, link, etc. and at the time when ATV was even more of a "hobby", get a bigger foothold in the living room.

If I remember correctly Microsoft wanted to buy Nintendo when it launched Xbox. They ended up buying Raresoft and Bungie. I don't think Yamauchi would have sold to a non Japanese company. But Yamauchi passed away in 2013 so who knows maybe it could get sold now. I really hope some conglomerate like Apple/Microsoft/Disney doesn't buy Nintendo. Would be a real loss.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on March 18, 2015, 11:19:08 AM
have own this for a while, the price action has out strip my thesis (original thesis was, they had tons of cash ntdoy operating biz was only worth around 1 to 2 bil, the operating unit surely are worth more than that, i believe lucasfilm sold for 4bil )

now its market cap is around 27bil usd with approx 10bil in fairly liquid asset (net asset of 11bil usd) is the operating unit worth 17bil? its not as easy at 17bil.

hy
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on February 08, 2016, 10:37:21 AM
I thought this was a cool pitch on Nintendo.  I agree with others that Apple should buy it to establish even more of a moat around their mobile and TV business.  But maybe there's something we're missing there.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bzm9JT6Xfru3Nm9QYWJNUk9YVjg/view (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bzm9JT6Xfru3Nm9QYWJNUk9YVjg/view)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ccplz on February 10, 2016, 05:33:19 AM
^ Solid write up. I agree that Nintendo is massively undervalued at this price. Not sure what I'm missing but I think there are multiple drivers to growth/profitability, and their fortress balance sheet gives them all the time in the world.

Picasso, are you long NTDOY?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hardcorevalue on February 10, 2016, 06:51:18 AM
The risks I see are:

Nintendo is not handling the development for mobile smart phone games themselves. Quality may suffer.
The NX system may launch soon. This is a knee jerk response to the terrible WiiU. Any new console launch is a wild card.
Nintendo may be outspent in Virtual Reality by dramatically larger companies. Facebook, Apple, Sony, Microsoft, Google, Samsung.
Street estimates have nintendo doubling profits by 2017. So some mobile growth has already been factored in.

If Nintendo came out tomorrow and said it would become exclusively a software developer I would buy the shares instantly. But anybody who understands Nintendo corporate culture knows this is highly unlikely.

I'm still sitting back and watching.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on February 10, 2016, 07:56:20 AM
The risks I see are:

Nintendo is not handling the development for mobile smart phone games themselves.

Yes, they are. They are partnering with DeNA because of their mobile expertise but they are involved in development themselves.


The NX system may launch soon. This is a knee jerk response to the terrible WiiU. Any new console launch is a wild card. 

It's not knee jerk. It's standard procedure when your current console doesn't have any legs to release the next one a year or two early. The planning and development of the next gen console starts as soon as the current one is released no matter what, anyway.

Nintendo may be outspent in Virtual Reality by dramatically larger companies. Facebook, Apple, Sony, Microsoft, Google, Samsung.

There is no evidence of any significant commercial value in VR as of yet. Nintendo was down that road in the 90s with the Virtual Boy and are understandably gun shy. I haven't seen any signs this is anything more than a fad. But sure fads can be very popular, just look at the Wii. The problem with VR machines is that they are very expensive. Oculus rift will cost $600 and there is probably not that much of a profit at that price point if any. Compare that to the Wii which sold at a good profit per unit right out of the gate at a comparably low price, which is highly unusual for consoles.

I just suspect the VR stuff is highly overblown and even if it's not, in my view Nintendo should stay the course on not plowing billions into state of the art technology.

If Nintendo came out tomorrow and said it would become exclusively a software developer I would buy the shares instantly. But anybody who understands Nintendo corporate culture knows this is highly unlikely.

That's probably correct but not that long ago they swore they would never make mobile games so who knows after the NX.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on February 10, 2016, 09:05:57 AM
A clarification on the Nintendo/DeNA question.

I don't know who the main developers are for each title, but there is precedence for Nintendo outsourcing development to second and third party companies with good results. The Zelda ports for 3DS are the latest examples. Camelot has made a number of Mario sports games. Retro Studios has made entries into the Donkey Kong and Metroid series to great success. Sega made the critically acclaimed F-Zero GX. And there are probably more examples which elude me now. All these projects were of course monitored and ultimately quality approved by Nintendo. In some cases the lines between outsourcing and co-development are blurry.

They learned their lesson on this front in the early 90s with the Mario movie and the unplayable Zelda games for the Philips CD-i.  This also explains some of their reluctance to milk their franchises with movies, amusement parks etc.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on February 10, 2016, 05:14:16 PM
^ Solid write up. I agree that Nintendo is massively undervalued at this price. Not sure what I'm missing but I think there are multiple drivers to growth/profitability, and their fortress balance sheet gives them all the time in the world.

Picasso, are you long NTDOY?

Not long yet but I am gravitating towards it.  It's one of those investments that doesn't screen well but has a lot of under appreciated qualities and understated earnings.  Also prices for vintage Nintendo games have been sky rocketing lately so I think there's some real value, just a question of how they pull it out of the register.

But I also hate Japanese stocks, they don't care about shareholder value and then I have to hedge out the yen.  The place is a graveyard for long-term value investors.  If I'm going to buy it I need a lot more conviction than I have today and a lower price would help with that.  I recall getting interested when Michael Pachter called for the death of Nintendo since that guy is always wrong.  But that was when Nintendo was under 10k yen and here we are at 15k.  In many ways the mobile market represents an incredible opportunity for Nintendo that didn't exist five years ago.  Either way it will be interesting to see how this develops.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Chalk bag on February 10, 2016, 05:59:20 PM
I'll believe it when I see solid products. That nation / company had been behind on mobile for light years and it shows, and Nintendo specifically had been a dinosaur ever since they made the Wii. Handheld is no longer a major market and even console is a shaky proposition w/ the way the world is moving. The CEO who died was a genius for his time in the 80s-90s but a moron when it comes to coporate strategy going forward, while the whole board have no idea how to allocate capital and should all be fired. I call this company a typical Japanese zombie who rests on its past laurels and have no idea what the heck to do.

Can you even imagine the cash flow they can monetize with a properly developed Pokemon / Monster Hunter on mobile? It pains me dearly. I don't call them idiots for no reason. Put that IP in the hands of any silicon valley company - even a startup, you got a freaking winner multiple times the success of that BS Zynga.

And if they monetize games well globally, why can't they make movies / themeparks out of them? There you have Disney and an ever-lasting franchise. I'm telling you they really suck.

Too bad they have neither vision, strategy, nor execution, and Japanese culture / corporate law basically kills the idea of any activists going after them. There's a price for this -- it's the implied # of hit products by the EV. Let's say EV is 10 Bn USD and we estimate every hit to be worth 2-3 Bn, then the implied # of hits = ~4. if you think they can do it, buy it, otherwise no. The cash pile isn't generating any returns and the management has proven its ability to light it on-fire over the past few years. I don't think I trust them.

But then again, I'm just a nerd who loves games and in the investing business. What do I know about making games itself?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on February 10, 2016, 06:39:14 PM
In many ways it reminds of of Apple back in 2000 or so, expect this investment is stranded in Japan.  Huge net cash balance, ridiculous brand power despite bad product launches and low market share (that's telling more than anything), and some hairy parts that turn off most investors.  Also complaints about the hardware business, etc. 

I mean practically half the business is net cash.  We saw what happened to the stock with a faddish Wii.  Properly monetizing their content has got to give you some pretty stunning upside since it would be more long-term and compounding in nature.

Anyway, an interesting stock. 

Edit: just as a thought exercise, how much do you think Disney will generate off their $4B purchase of Lucasfilm over its lifetime?  At a $10B Nintendo EV, there's no way you can't generate many multiples on that over time.  Just a matter of whether they do, not because they can't.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on February 11, 2016, 03:46:11 AM
Can you even imagine the cash flow they can monetize with a properly developed Pokemon / Monster Hunter on mobile? It pains me dearly. I don't call them idiots for no reason. Put that IP in the hands of any silicon valley company - even a startup, you got a freaking winner multiple times the success of that BS Zynga.

Umm, Monster Hunter is a Capcom franchise.

And here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sj2iQyBTQs
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Chalk bag on February 11, 2016, 06:24:25 AM
Can you even imagine the cash flow they can monetize with a properly developed Pokemon / Monster Hunter on mobile? It pains me dearly. I don't call them idiots for no reason. Put that IP in the hands of any silicon valley company - even a startup, you got a freaking winner multiple times the success of that BS Zynga.

Umm, Monster Hunter is a Capcom franchise.

And here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sj2iQyBTQs

My bad lol. Pokemon Go looks v. interesting! We'll see what they can bring.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Chalk bag on February 11, 2016, 06:49:29 AM
Can you even imagine the cash flow they can monetize with a properly developed Pokemon / Monster Hunter on mobile? It pains me dearly. I don't call them idiots for no reason. Put that IP in the hands of any silicon valley company - even a startup, you got a freaking winner multiple times the success of that BS Zynga.

Umm, Monster Hunter is a Capcom franchise.

And here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sj2iQyBTQs

My bad lol. Pokemon Go looks v. interesting! We'll see what they can bring.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sj2iQyBTQs

If this becomes reality and well-executed. The company will become the biggest franchise in world gaming, bars none. As a fan I really wish they could make it work.
If I seem to swing between the 2 polar extremes -- it's because it's like watching someone with a good hand in poker screwing up.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on February 11, 2016, 07:15:23 AM
It's worse than seeing someone screw up a good poker hand because even a good poker hand doesn't guarantee against a bad beat.  Nintendo has an incredible franchise that's pretty much impossible to kill and a massive market opportunity with mobile and eventually VR.  I know for myself, probably 3 out of my 5 best childhood memories involve Nintendo.  Then again maybe that says more about my childhood than Nintendo... *shudder*
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: whistlerbumps on February 23, 2016, 07:32:41 AM
Are we sure that Nintendo would actually dominate the mobile gaming market?  The current freemium model is very different than the model they (and probably most of us who grew up with Nintendo) are familiar with.  Freemium requires more real time data analysis (what is/is not working), rapid updates (to implement needed changes) and a smaller emphasis on overall game design/content. 

It also requires skill in monetizing as a very small % of customers actually monetize and a small % of those represent a majority of your revenue.  So it takes lot of skill in customer acquisition and conversion.

This is a very different business than console or handheld which prioritize design and only release each game once with everyone paying.  While its still a video game, I think mobile is an entirely different business than what Nintendo is used to (and what its core fans want. 

Granted they brought in DeNA for expertise in freemium but DeNA is kind of an also ran. 

Now of course Nintendo could be successful given the power of their content.  But I definitely think there is a lot more risk to their ability to succeed in mobile than people are assuming.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on March 07, 2016, 10:28:57 AM
Theme park plans:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/03/07/nintendo-to-build-250m-super-mario-theme-park-in-japan/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ccplz on April 02, 2016, 02:56:36 AM
Are we sure that Nintendo would actually dominate the mobile gaming market?  The current freemium model is very different than the model they (and probably most of us who grew up with Nintendo) are familiar with.  Freemium requires more real time data analysis (what is/is not working), rapid updates (to implement needed changes) and a smaller emphasis on overall game design/content. 

It also requires skill in monetizing as a very small % of customers actually monetize and a small % of those represent a majority of your revenue.  So it takes lot of skill in customer acquisition and conversion.

This is a very different business than console or handheld which prioritize design and only release each game once with everyone paying.  While its still a video game, I think mobile is an entirely different business than what Nintendo is used to (and what its core fans want. 

Granted they brought in DeNA for expertise in freemium but DeNA is kind of an also ran. 

Now of course Nintendo could be successful given the power of their content.  But I definitely think there is a lot more risk to their ability to succeed in mobile than people are assuming.

People are already assuming a lot of risk given how cheap their shares are looking.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: kab60 on July 08, 2016, 11:05:24 AM
Sounds like Pokemon for smartphone is a hit - http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZO059?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 08, 2016, 11:12:37 AM
Sounds like Pokemon for smartphone is a hit - http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZO059?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

My friends are already blowing up my facebook with their pokemon go stuff. crazy





http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-pokemon-helped-nintendo-crack-the-mobile-game-market-1467993352
 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-pokemon-helped-nintendo-crack-the-mobile-game-market-1467993352)

How Pokémon Helped Nintendo Crack the Mobile-Game Market

A hit game developed by others shows the strength of company’s intellectual property and its potential for success in mobile gaming
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 08, 2016, 12:26:55 PM
Downloaded Pokemon Go app, it has problems getting GPS (maybe because I'm indoors) and then goes into "Our servers are experiencing issues. Please come back later..." with elevator muzak and no exit button. Great app quality control guys! (I have oldish Nexus 4, so it also might be my phone, but still...)

I heard people from one of my MMO guilds talking about playing P-Go yesterday.

Might be a hit, but who knows.

Edit: Took a look at Google Play store. Has 100K downloads shield. Rating is 3.6 out of 5 now. Recent reviews are 1-2 stars: people can't connect, bitching about no battle mode and pay-to-win. It's bad if company misjudges the demand and pisses off people when they are on the wave of free publicity. :/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: RadMan24 on July 08, 2016, 12:49:41 PM
This game will continue to fix issues and will evolve (no pun intended). This is exactlu what Nintendo should be doing. iPhones are nearly same size of old game boys. Killer game. Fun, new, unique. Trust me, server issues are a good thing. Albeit as long as they are fixed sooner rather than later :)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on July 08, 2016, 03:41:28 PM
Fun ancedote:

https://twitter.com/e1n/status/751487351617007617

Less fun one:

http://county10.com/201021174044426240/teen-playing-new-pokemon-game-on-phone-discovers-body-in-wind-river
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Foreign Tuffett on July 08, 2016, 07:57:59 PM
Nintendo has ~$9 billion in cash and securities on their balance sheet.....and they are about to have even more.....

http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-sale-how-john-stantons-seattle-group-struck-a-deal-with-nintendo-of-america/
 (http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-sale-how-john-stantons-seattle-group-struck-a-deal-with-nintendo-of-america/)

Have they given any indication that they might do anything useful with a portion of this? I know they've repurchase stock in the past.

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: RichardGibbons on July 08, 2016, 10:07:05 PM
I just got PokeGo to play with my son.  It was pretty fun wandering around the neighborhood, looking for things.  The highlight was bumping into a pair of young 20-something women playing it--quite a surprise considering it isn't even released in Canada yet.

My best guess is that it will burn itself out fairly fast, but the exact mapping of the game world onto the real world is pretty compelling in the short term.

Richard
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ScottHall on July 08, 2016, 11:29:01 PM
I just got PokeGo to play with my son.  It was pretty fun wandering around the neighborhood, looking for things.  The highlight was bumping into a pair of young 20-something women playing it--quite a surprise considering it isn't even released in Canada yet.

My best guess is that it will burn itself out fairly fast, but the exact mapping of the game world onto the real world is pretty compelling in the short term.

Richard

I love Pokemon, haven't played Pokemon Go yet.

Nintendo always struck me as horribly undermonetized given all of the IP it holds. A Metroid film could be a huge blockbuster, for example.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: stahleyp on July 09, 2016, 04:31:42 AM
I just got PokeGo to play with my son.  It was pretty fun wandering around the neighborhood, looking for things.  The highlight was bumping into a pair of young 20-something women playing it--quite a surprise considering it isn't even released in Canada yet.

My best guess is that it will burn itself out fairly fast, but the exact mapping of the game world onto the real world is pretty compelling in the short term.

Richard
A Metroid film could be a huge blockbuster, for example.

I don't know about that. Isn't the biggest movie tomb raider? That series is way more mainstream than metroid. I guess it really depends on how well the film is made but I wouldn't bet on it given the history of other ones.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ZenaidaMacroura on July 09, 2016, 08:13:49 AM
It's a really cool game, but the design is really really crappy.

There's a huge fanbase for the franchise though.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 09, 2016, 09:46:33 AM
I just downloaded game last night. It was too late to wander but I already caught a charmander and geodude at home. Haha
 ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 09, 2016, 11:32:46 AM
Yeah, looks like they fixed some stuff. And they added the first (?) pokemon to whatever location you start the app at.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: johnny on July 09, 2016, 06:47:51 PM
This Pokemon Go thing is a complete disaster. It is incredible how much people are focusing on the positive (the desperation for a real Nintendo game on mobile) and not on the negative (the fact that Nintendo seems culturally incapable of pulling it off).
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ccplz on July 09, 2016, 10:45:17 PM
This Pokemon Go thing is a complete disaster. It is incredible how much people are focusing on the positive (the desperation for a real Nintendo game on mobile) and not on the negative (the fact that Nintendo seems culturally incapable of pulling it off).

You seem to have an interesting definition of 'complete disaster'.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on July 09, 2016, 11:26:58 PM
Here I am at midnight strolling through pitch black parks trying to find a damn Squirtle. There's a ton of other people all looking for god knows what Pokemon. What fun...
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: adesigar on July 09, 2016, 11:54:24 PM
Here I am at midnight strolling through pitch black parks trying to find a damn Squirtle. There's a ton of other people all looking for god knows what Pokemon. What fun...

I'm sick, my daughter is not well but she wanted to go get some Pokémon, convinced her we will do it next week. I'm going to be walking a lot when we are both better. Also there a bunch of crazy people at the nearby Pokestops and PokeGyms. Its freaking midnight and theres Lure Modules active at the Pokestops.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 11, 2016, 08:30:39 AM
Pokémon-Chasing Investors Send Nintendo Shares Soaring

Craze added $9 billion in market value to gaming company

http://www.wsj.com/articles/pokemon-chasing-investors-send-nintendo-shares-soaring-1468228206 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/pokemon-chasing-investors-send-nintendo-shares-soaring-1468228206)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 11, 2016, 08:57:16 AM
Hah, almost bought on Friday for da shizz. Got dissuaded by crappy app and the fact that I did not like the company number-wise much. Decided not to "speculate".  ::)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on July 11, 2016, 09:04:59 AM
In many ways it reminds of of Apple back in 2000 or so, expect this investment is stranded in Japan.  Huge net cash balance, ridiculous brand power despite bad product launches and low market share (that's telling more than anything), and some hairy parts that turn off most investors.  Also complaints about the hardware business, etc. 

I mean practically half the business is net cash.  We saw what happened to the stock with a faddish Wii.  Properly monetizing their content has got to give you some pretty stunning upside since it would be more long-term and compounding in nature.

Anyway, an interesting stock. 

Edit: just as a thought exercise, how much do you think Disney will generate off their $4B purchase of Lucasfilm over its lifetime?  At a $10B Nintendo EV, there's no way you can't generate many multiples on that over time.  Just a matter of whether they do, not because they can't.

I convinced myself into buying in.  Where do I turn in my value investing card?  I think there's a rule against buying a stock 50% past your initial entry point.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 11, 2016, 09:54:05 AM
Random thought. Malls/carnivals/street food fairs/those businesses looking for foot traffic can pay Niantic/Nintendo to have a Pokestop/gym or certain Pokémons to spawn there. Make it a limited time offer thing.  Seems like a win, win.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ZenaidaMacroura on July 11, 2016, 10:00:07 AM
Random thought. Malls/carnivals/street food fairs/those businesses looking for foot traffic can pay Niantic/Nintendo to have a Pokestop/gym or certain Pokémons to spawn there. Make it a limited time offer thing.  Seems like a win, win.
According to my GF, food trucks and small businesses in Houston are already dropping an item that "increases the encounter chance for wild pokemon" in a certain vicinity to attract players to their locations.

Those items are available for micro purchase in app already!
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 11, 2016, 10:01:31 AM
In many ways it reminds of of Apple back in 2000 or so, expect this investment is stranded in Japan.  Huge net cash balance, ridiculous brand power despite bad product launches and low market share (that's telling more than anything), and some hairy parts that turn off most investors.  Also complaints about the hardware business, etc. 

I mean practically half the business is net cash.  We saw what happened to the stock with a faddish Wii.  Properly monetizing their content has got to give you some pretty stunning upside since it would be more long-term and compounding in nature.

Anyway, an interesting stock. 

Edit: just as a thought exercise, how much do you think Disney will generate off their $4B purchase of Lucasfilm over its lifetime?  At a $10B Nintendo EV, there's no way you can't generate many multiples on that over time.  Just a matter of whether they do, not because they can't.

I convinced myself into buying in.  Where do I turn in my value investing card?  I think there's a rule against buying a stock 50% past your initial entry point.

Hah, see my post on SBUX thread on the trendsetting. The big Q for you or anyone is whether Pokemon Go is a fad for a week (month) or if it can revitalize the brand, the company, etc.

I would say it's a fad. Ez come, ez go. But that's just me - and I am not a good trendspotter. NTDOY might still do well even if it's a fad, but expect a huge leave of short term speculators and disappointed Peter Lynch wannabes if the popularity starts dropping.

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ZenaidaMacroura on July 11, 2016, 10:10:03 AM
In many ways it reminds of of Apple back in 2000 or so, expect this investment is stranded in Japan.  Huge net cash balance, ridiculous brand power despite bad product launches and low market share (that's telling more than anything), and some hairy parts that turn off most investors.  Also complaints about the hardware business, etc. 

I mean practically half the business is net cash.  We saw what happened to the stock with a faddish Wii.  Properly monetizing their content has got to give you some pretty stunning upside since it would be more long-term and compounding in nature.

Anyway, an interesting stock. 

Edit: just as a thought exercise, how much do you think Disney will generate off their $4B purchase of Lucasfilm over its lifetime?  At a $10B Nintendo EV, there's no way you can't generate many multiples on that over time.  Just a matter of whether they do, not because they can't.

I convinced myself into buying in.  Where do I turn in my value investing card?  I think there's a rule against buying a stock 50% past your initial entry point.

Hah, see my post on SBUX thread on the trendsetting. The big Q for you or anyone is whether Pokemon Go is a fad for a week (month) or if it can revitalize the brand, the company, etc.

I would say it's a fad. Ez come, ez go. But that's just me - and I am not a good trendspotter. NTDOY might still do well even if it's a fad, but expect a huge leave of short term speculators and disappointed Peter Lynch wannabes if the popularity starts dropping.

I want to agree with you Jurgis, the game is horribly designed and it shows how much Nintendo has to improve to compete in mobile (it kind of justifies Activision buying King instead of in-housing it).

But if there's a way to do a major overhaul or patch the game it could have staying power.  I don't have it to verify but I'm hearing that the official version on PokémonGO is 0.29

If this is like any other game it implies that while the game is "launched" this is beta for Niantic...
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 11, 2016, 10:19:49 AM
The version is 0.29, but that may not mean much. Versioning philosophy differs a lot in different companies. And one company's beta is sometimes ten times better than other company's gold release.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: rkbabang on July 11, 2016, 11:15:23 AM
In many ways it reminds of of Apple back in 2000 or so, expect this investment is stranded in Japan.  Huge net cash balance, ridiculous brand power despite bad product launches and low market share (that's telling more than anything), and some hairy parts that turn off most investors.  Also complaints about the hardware business, etc. 

I mean practically half the business is net cash.  We saw what happened to the stock with a faddish Wii.  Properly monetizing their content has got to give you some pretty stunning upside since it would be more long-term and compounding in nature.

Anyway, an interesting stock. 

Edit: just as a thought exercise, how much do you think Disney will generate off their $4B purchase of Lucasfilm over its lifetime?  At a $10B Nintendo EV, there's no way you can't generate many multiples on that over time.  Just a matter of whether they do, not because they can't.

I convinced myself into buying in.  Where do I turn in my value investing card?  I think there's a rule against buying a stock 50% past your initial entry point.

Hah, see my post on SBUX thread on the trendsetting. The big Q for you or anyone is whether Pokemon Go is a fad for a week (month) or if it can revitalize the brand, the company, etc.

I would say it's a fad. Ez come, ez go. But that's just me - and I am not a good trendspotter. NTDOY might still do well even if it's a fad, but expect a huge leave of short term speculators and disappointed Peter Lynch wannabes if the popularity starts dropping.


I think that Pokemon Go is indeed a fad and people will move on before too long.  But augmented reality is going to be huge.  My guess is that kids born this year will no more be able to imagine a world without augmented reality than millennials can imagine a world without the internet, or I can imagine a world without telephones, cars, and airplanes.  I still think glasses are next, followed by contacts, followed by implants.  The glasses/contacts might interact with the smartphone in your pocket at first, becoming standalone later on.

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on July 11, 2016, 11:47:00 AM
Well as long as everyone on CoBF thinks it's a fad, I think it's probably okay to buy NTDOY. <Insert passive aggressive smiley>

It seems obvious to me that it's going to be a smashing success and only get better over time.  This is probably one of the most valuable franchises in the world and mobile is getting to the point where they can really start to monetize it.  All the prior successful mobile games were garbage repetitive pecking cash grabs, like candy crush or whatever.  But now you have a real massive multiplayer mobile game that can actually take advantage of this massive character universe.  It's like Pokemon was made for the technology that we have today.  Plus all the consumers who loved Pokemon (insert other Nintendo franchise) actually have money to spend.  Which means this app has a ton of value in terms of the traffic it can drive to various venues. 

Now compare what Nintendo has sitting in its pockets to the valuations recently paid for Supercell or Dreamworks Animation.  But the commentary from the finance community reminds me of Apple back in 2003.... https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Apple_Computer/996 (https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Apple_Computer/996)


Quote
I agree that the company has great products and fanatical loyalty, but the question is can this proprietary model which has higher gross margins offset entirely by higher R&D SG&A expense compete effectively with Dell? In other words, can this company ever get to a "normalized" level of profits given its relative cost disadvantage?

Also, I get feeling that this company is being run for the benefit of satisfiying Steve Job's whims and not for shareholders given: 1) hoarding cash for God knows what (Vivdendi or another value-destroying acquisition?) 2) lack of share repurchases/dividends 3) egregious compensation for Jobs (e.g. a $90m airplane given to him by the company in 12/99 and 5m shares of restricted stock in 3/03).
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 11, 2016, 11:56:56 AM
Hunt for Pokémon Has Led to Painful Discoveries

Amid chasing characters, ‘explorers’ have hurt ankles, broken phones but also found kinship

http://www.wsj.com/articles/hunt-for-pokemon-has-led-to-painful-discoveries-1468255687?tesla=y (http://www.wsj.com/articles/hunt-for-pokemon-has-led-to-painful-discoveries-1468255687?tesla=y)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: rkbabang on July 11, 2016, 11:58:32 AM
Well as long as everyone on CoBF thinks it's a fad, I think it's probably okay to buy NTDOY. <Insert passive aggressive smiley>

It seems obvious to me that it's going to be a smashing success and only get better over time.  This is probably one of the most valuable franchises in the world and mobile is getting to the point where they can really start to monetize it.  All the prior successful mobile games were garbage repetitive pecking cash grabs, like candy crush or whatever.  But now you have a real massive multiplayer mobile game that can actually take advantage of this massive character universe.  It's like Pokemon was made for the technology that we have today.  Plus all the consumers who loved Pokemon (insert other Nintendo franchise) actually have money to spend.  Which means this app has a ton of value in terms of the traffic it can drive to various venues. 

Now compare what Nintendo has sitting in its pockets to the valuations recently paid for Supercell or Dreamworks Animation.  But the commentary from the finance community reminds me of Apple back in 2003.... https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Apple_Computer/996 (https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Apple_Computer/996)

I'd compare it more to the release of the Wii, which was supposed to change video gaming forever.  It was just a fad.

Chart of how well the Wii (released in 2006) worked out for shareholders (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1335556800000&chddm=635293&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=OTCMKTS:NTDOY&ntsp=0&ei=q-2DV8muPMXvigL8v76gCw)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: plato1976 on July 11, 2016, 12:21:46 PM
well, I think a key difference is that Apple had SJobs back then, and I don't have that high regards for nintendo's current mgt
so maybe we shouldn't be that excited...

Picasso, what's the rough upside you see from this level? Maybe you see it as a long term compounder?

Well as long as everyone on CoBF thinks it's a fad, I think it's probably okay to buy NTDOY. <Insert passive aggressive smiley>

It seems obvious to me that it's going to be a smashing success and only get better over time.  This is probably one of the most valuable franchises in the world and mobile is getting to the point where they can really start to monetize it.  All the prior successful mobile games were garbage repetitive pecking cash grabs, like candy crush or whatever.  But now you have a real massive multiplayer mobile game that can actually take advantage of this massive character universe.  It's like Pokemon was made for the technology that we have today.  Plus all the consumers who loved Pokemon (insert other Nintendo franchise) actually have money to spend.  Which means this app has a ton of value in terms of the traffic it can drive to various venues. 

Now compare what Nintendo has sitting in its pockets to the valuations recently paid for Supercell or Dreamworks Animation.  But the commentary from the finance community reminds me of Apple back in 2003.... https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Apple_Computer/996 (https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Apple_Computer/996)


Quote
I agree that the company has great products and fanatical loyalty, but the question is can this proprietary model which has higher gross margins offset entirely by higher R&D SG&A expense compete effectively with Dell? In other words, can this company ever get to a "normalized" level of profits given its relative cost disadvantage?

Also, I get feeling that this company is being run for the benefit of satisfiying Steve Job's whims and not for shareholders given: 1) hoarding cash for God knows what (Vivdendi or another value-destroying acquisition?) 2) lack of share repurchases/dividends 3) egregious compensation for Jobs (e.g. a $90m airplane given to him by the company in 12/99 and 5m shares of restricted stock in 3/03).
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 11, 2016, 12:33:15 PM
Somewhat OT:

I agree that augmented reality will be huge at some point. I think Google was stupid to abandon Glass (even though I won a prediction I made couple years ago that Glass won't be a huge replacement for mobile phones - Glass bulls just piled on me when I made it).

I think Microsoft is making the same mistake by (mostly) abandoning Kinect. They should have tried to improve it and push it much more instead of just rolling over.

I think Pokemon Go is a fad, but it will depend a lot on the company. They might be able to make it Warcraft level success if they make it fun and attractive long term. Right now I think it's somewhat bleh, though I might be wrong demographics: e.g. I start it when I go for a walk, but I won't go out of my way to get to a Pokegym (and it told me that I am too low level anyway...  :'( ). The fact that some Pokemons show spawned on private property kinda concerns me: is this invitation to get on my lawn?  :o Also if this becomes hugely pay to win, that could make it crash too (although it will make bunch of money in the meantime).
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: rkbabang on July 11, 2016, 01:02:06 PM
Somewhat OT:

I agree that augmented reality will be huge at some point. I think Google was stupid to abandon Glass (even though I won a prediction I made couple years ago that Glass won't be a huge replacement for mobile phones - Glass bulls just piled on me when I made it).

I think Microsoft is making the same mistake by (mostly) abandoning Kinect. They should have tried to improve it and push it much more instead of just rolling over.

I think Pokemon Go is a fad, but it will depend a lot on the company. They might be able to make it Warcraft level success if they make it fun and attractive long term. Right now I think it's somewhat bleh, though I might be wrong demographics: e.g. I start it when I go for a walk, but I won't go out of my way to get to a Pokegym (and it told me that I am too low level anyway...  :'( ). The fact that some Pokemons show spawned on private property kinda concerns me: is this invitation to get on my lawn?  :o Also if this becomes hugely pay to win, that could make it crash too (although it will make bunch of money in the meantime).

It's early yet for AR.  Being too early is the same as being wrong.  Pokemon might be a fad, but it doesn't mean you can't make money with NTDOY.  Look at the chart I posted, for those who knew that Wii was a fad and sold after the run up they did great.  Those who thought Wii was going to change video gaming forever and held for 5-10 years, they didn't do so great.  The question is how much higher will it go? Where is the top before the fad goes away?  It is up a lot already, is there still plenty of room or not?   I don't know the answer to those questions.  I wouldn't buy NTDOY and expect to hold it for 5+ years based on Pokemon Go though.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Packer16 on July 11, 2016, 03:23:37 PM
I think this a marketing bonanza.  Imagine the ability to bring folks into your store looking for Pokeman or whatever else.  My kids now go for walks looking for Pokeman when before it was impossible to get them to do this, they are teenagers.

Packer
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 11, 2016, 04:49:09 PM
I think this a marketing bonanza.  Imagine the ability to bring folks into your store looking for Pokeman or whatever else.  My kids now go for walks looking for Pokeman when before it was impossible to get them to do this, they are teenagers.

Packer

The game should be tracking steps/miles  strava/fitbit style. Hit 5 miles? get a item or something like that.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: CorpRaider on July 11, 2016, 05:08:09 PM
Nice job of not anchoring Picasso.  I can't seem to do it but I think you will likely do very well with this one.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ragnarisapirate on July 11, 2016, 06:32:10 PM
This last week strikes me as super interesting for a lot of reasons. Not sure that this really addresses anything in this thread, but, I wanted to jot these ideas down and see what others think.

1) Pokemon is relatively old IP. I remember it from when I was a kid, and, it was in Japan even longer than here, if I recall correctly. Pretty impressive that they figured such a unique way to monetize. Nintendo probably couldn't have done it with Mario. Pokemon was PERFECT for this type of game- Nintendo investors probably could not have valued Pokemon any more incorrectly than they did (insert number of years ago).

2) What was readily considered weird (say, playing live action RPGs in parks) is really popular now. I could totally see something like this with Zelda... Heck, World of Warcraft working out something similar isn't totally crazy.

3) This is based on a game called Ingress, that a banker (of all things) I am friends with, turned me onto a few years ago. I didn't play very much, but all the locations that are used in Pokemon have come about because of a bunch of geeks making portals and such over the past 4 years in Ingress. Most interesting to me, is that Pokemon needed Ingress to succeed, because the "work" that the Ingress gamers was critical to get Pokemon to be a hit.

4) This really makes me wonder what kind of tricks all the tech companies out there have coming, based on the data that we have been giving them on our electronic devices. It also makes me a lot more sympathetic to companies that are reinvesting in their businesses in ways that the public doesn't see immediately. (The parallels here to what Uber, Facebook, Google, and the like are doing/have done could be pretty compelling)

5) $5-freakin-billion dollars in Nintendo market cap has come about in the past few days from not this game, but, the whole business line. And if I am correct, Nintendo only owns 1/3 of this game business...

6) Wii was revolutionary, and frankly, a precursor to this game (think about how it got people to like the idea of playing games that use a gyroscope as a main means of control). This is probably just another stepping stone to so many other lines that us mere mortals can't see.

7) What will the effects of weather be on this game line? I don't see people wanting to play it when it's 15 degrees outside... And, think about it- if you go 4 months without playing a game, do you really play it again? Then again, EA has made a business out of selling the same game over and over again (football, baseball, basketball, etc)

Basically, this is probably some sort of stepping stone. But the real fun is getting to see it all take place. It's kind of impressive that such an old school company like Nintendo is able to work up such a hit when everyone thinks the company is dead in the water.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Patmo on July 12, 2016, 05:11:09 AM
I mean sure, GO is a surprise hit, but with Nintendo's roster, was it really a surprise that the company would come out with popular mobile games?

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: wachtwoord on July 12, 2016, 06:10:25 AM
I feel very stupid for downloading this from day 1 and not connecting it to putting some money in NTDOY. I'm just not a momentum investor at all I guess. No way I'm toucing it now after such a run-up.

I still think glasses are next, followed by contacts, followed by implants.  The glasses/contacts might interact with the smartphone in your pocket at first, becoming standalone later on.

I don't think this I know this. I've been saying this for many years. Google glasses was the mp3 player (Zune perhaps), we're still waiting for the iPhone variant: Exactly the same product, but shiny, more expensive and timed properly. Google was just unlucky (like MSFT).
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ragnarisapirate on July 12, 2016, 07:00:25 AM
I mean sure, GO is a surprise hit, but with Nintendo's roster, was it really a surprise that the company would come out with popular mobile games?

It's about how they did it, tho.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: eclecticvalue on July 12, 2016, 07:00:42 AM


I don't think this I know this. I've been saying this for many years. Google glasses was the mp3 player (Zune perhaps), we're still waiting for the iPhone variant: Exactly the same product, but shiny, more expensive and timed properly. Google was just unlucky (like MSFT).

I think what has replaced the google glass is the DSLR camera. There is a genre of YouTube videos called vlogging and the best vloggers uses DSLR Cameras, or regular cameras to record footage of their everyday lives and upload it. I think it gives the creator a controlled way of doing it. Since they can edit it before uploading.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: rkbabang on July 12, 2016, 07:29:15 AM


I don't think this I know this. I've been saying this for many years. Google glasses was the mp3 player (Zune perhaps), we're still waiting for the iPhone variant: Exactly the same product, but shiny, more expensive and timed properly. Google was just unlucky (like MSFT).

I think what has replaced the google glass is the DSLR camera. There is a genre of YouTube videos called vlogging and the best vloggers uses DSLR Cameras, or regular cameras to record footage of their everyday lives and upload it. I think it gives the creator a controlled way of doing it. Since they can edit it before uploading.

Recording video isn't really the killer app for the glasses.  Augmented reality is.  Google wasn't unlucky, but simply way too early.  Maybe in 3-7 years when Apple does it right it will catch on.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: eclecticvalue on July 12, 2016, 07:43:23 AM
Maybe glasses isn't it. It'll be in the watch because the one feature with the glass majority of the people didn't like was recording video.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: DCG on July 12, 2016, 07:47:43 AM

I didn't comprehend how big this has gotten until I was downtown in my city last night. A friend & I were hanging out on a roof-top patio at a bar that overlooks part of downtown. All of the sudden about 40 people showed up in the parking lot below us staring at their phones. Then 10 minutes later, there were about 20 people standing on the opposite street corner. We even saw 2 groups of people walk pretty much directly into each other while staring at their phones.
We then went to a different bar across the street where we know the bartenders, and one of them placed a bunch of lures (or whatever they're called) on their patio. A few minutes later a group of people showed up, and actually ended up staying and ordering drinks and food.
It's a great idea - although It seems like the last thing society needs is another reason for people to walk around staring at their phones. Seems like people will walk into the road and get hit by a car. Is it true that they built in functionality to prevent it from working at certain speeds? Because having everyone driving around playing this stupid game seems dangerous as hell.
Seems like the real winners will be the cell phone carriers as everybody's going to rack up huge data plan charges.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 12, 2016, 07:59:56 AM
Maybe glasses isn't it. It'll be in the watch because the one feature with the glass majority of the people didn't like was recording video.

No. It has to be glasses or embedded in retina. The watch has the same problem as the phone: if you are walking and looking at it, you are not looking at the world. Pokemon Go shows that clearly: you are much more likely to run into people and trees and whatever because you are looking at the phone while walking and not looking where you are going. It's a very very crappy substitute for augmented reality.

We will get there though. Hopefully 5-10 years.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: rkbabang on July 12, 2016, 08:13:13 AM

I didn't comprehend how big this has gotten until I was downtown in my city last night. A friend & I were hanging out on a roof-top patio at a bar that overlooks part of downtown. All of the sudden about 40 people showed up in the parking lot below us staring at their phones. Then 10 minutes later, there were about 20 people standing on the opposite street corner. We even saw 2 groups of people walk pretty much directly into each other while staring at their phones.
We then went to a different bar across the street where we know the bartenders, and one of them placed a bunch of lures (or whatever they're called) on their patio. A few minutes later a group of people showed up, and actually ended up staying and ordering drinks and food.
It's a great idea - although It seems like the last thing society needs is another reason for people to walk around staring at their phones. Seems like people will walk into the road and get hit by a car. Is it true that they built in functionality to prevent it from working at certain speeds? Because having everyone driving around playing this stupid game seems dangerous as hell.
Seems like the real winners will be the cell phone carriers as everybody's going to rack up huge data plan charges.

I was at a family event on Sunday in a small town in Massachusetts.  They rented the basement of a church located on a non-busy side street for the event.  When we first got there, the first thing my son did was go for a walk in the parking lot to get some Pokemon Go thing.  After the event was over we were standing in the parking lot for about an hour and a half talking before making the trip back to NH.  And we saw one car after another pull in, stop, people inside play with their phones, then leave.  It was non-stop, car after car after car, the entire time.  Sometimes two cars where there at once.   Sometimes there was one person in the car, other times the car was full of young people.   This is a small town nowhere near a major city (~60 miles from Boston, ~20 miles from Providence).  That's when I realized this must be huge, I can't imagine what it is like in the large cities.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 12, 2016, 08:46:58 AM

I didn't comprehend how big this has gotten until I was downtown in my city last night. A friend & I were hanging out on a roof-top patio at a bar that overlooks part of downtown. All of the sudden about 40 people showed up in the parking lot below us staring at their phones. Then 10 minutes later, there were about 20 people standing on the opposite street corner. We even saw 2 groups of people walk pretty much directly into each other while staring at their phones.
We then went to a different bar across the street where we know the bartenders, and one of them placed a bunch of lures (or whatever they're called) on their patio. A few minutes later a group of people showed up, and actually ended up staying and ordering drinks and food.
It's a great idea - although It seems like the last thing society needs is another reason for people to walk around staring at their phones. Seems like people will walk into the road and get hit by a car. Is it true that they built in functionality to prevent it from working at certain speeds? Because having everyone driving around playing this stupid game seems dangerous as hell.
Seems like the real winners will be the cell phone carriers as everybody's going to rack up huge data plan charges.

I was at a family event on Sunday in a small town in Massachusetts.  They rented the basement of a church located on a non-busy side street for the event.  When we first got there, the first thing my son did was go for a walk in the parking lot to get some Pokemon Go thing.  After the event was over we were standing in the parking lot for about an hour and a half talking before making the trip back to NH.  And we saw one car after another pull in, stop, people inside play with their phones, then leave.  It was non-stop, car after car after car, the entire time.  Sometimes two cars where there at once.   Sometimes there was one person in the car, other times the car was full of young people.   This is a small town nowhere near a major city (~60 miles from Boston, ~20 miles from Providence).  That's when I realized this must be huge, I can't imagine what it is like in the large cities.

I'm in SF and my FB feed is blowing up with people doing pokemon go crawls (bars, parks, beaches, etc.)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Patmo on July 12, 2016, 08:53:21 AM
I mean sure, GO is a surprise hit, but with Nintendo's roster, was it really a surprise that the company would come out with popular mobile games?

It's about how they did it, tho.

I think it speaks to the quality of the IP that such  an unpolished game popped off, if that's what you meant. They can just polish it now, and learn and execute a bit better on future titles. We are talking Nintendo here, they are not reputed for ubisofting.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ZenaidaMacroura on July 12, 2016, 09:57:58 AM
So Niantic is still (at least partly) owned by Google?  This is piggybacking off Maps right?

Also, the point about Ingress is great.  What if Google could use games to compel people to collect valuable data? (in this case the data was used to situate pokestops and gyms). 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 12, 2016, 11:56:23 AM
So Niantic is still (at least partly) owned by Google?  This is piggybacking off Maps right?

Also, the point about Ingress is great.  What if Google could use games to compel people to collect valuable data? (in this case the data was used to situate pokestops and gyms).

Take a look at the chart accompanying this article.

In ‘Pokémon Go’ Craze, How Much Profit Does Nintendo Capture?
Questions linger on potential profit gains from smartphone game; Nintendo’s shares soar
http://www.wsj.com/articles/pokemon-go-fueled-nintendo-just-keeps-going-1468302369 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/pokemon-go-fueled-nintendo-just-keeps-going-1468302369)


Niantic Inc., a closely held company in California that was spun out from  Alphabet Inc. ’s Google last year, is the developer and distributor of the game. The startup said in October 2015 that it had raised $20 million from Tokyo-based Pokémon Co., Google and Nintendo, with an additional $10 million investment possible if it achieved certain milestones. As is typical with startups, Niantic didn’t disclose the precise ownership stakes held by its investors.

Nintendo may profit as a part-owner of Niantic, and Nintendo is also a 32%-owner of Pokémon Co., which has long controlled the merchandising of Pokémon characters and describes itself as the producer of the “Pokémon Go” game. In addition Nintendo itself plans to sell a $35 hand-held device called Pokémon Go Plus that would make it easier to catch the digital creatures in the game.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ZenaidaMacroura on July 12, 2016, 02:58:18 PM
So Niantic is still (at least partly) owned by Google?  This is piggybacking off Maps right?

Also, the point about Ingress is great.  What if Google could use games to compel people to collect valuable data? (in this case the data was used to situate pokestops and gyms).

Take a look at the chart accompanying this article.

In ‘Pokémon Go’ Craze, How Much Profit Does Nintendo Capture?
Questions linger on potential profit gains from smartphone game; Nintendo’s shares soar
http://www.wsj.com/articles/pokemon-go-fueled-nintendo-just-keeps-going-1468302369 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/pokemon-go-fueled-nintendo-just-keeps-going-1468302369)


Niantic Inc., a closely held company in California that was spun out from  Alphabet Inc. ’s Google last year, is the developer and distributor of the game. The startup said in October 2015 that it had raised $20 million from Tokyo-based Pokémon Co., Google and Nintendo, with an additional $10 million investment possible if it achieved certain milestones. As is typical with startups, Niantic didn’t disclose the precise ownership stakes held by its investors.

Nintendo may profit as a part-owner of Niantic, and Nintendo is also a 32%-owner of Pokémon Co., which has long controlled the merchandising of Pokémon characters and describes itself as the producer of the “Pokémon Go” game. In addition Nintendo itself plans to sell a $35 hand-held device called Pokémon Go Plus that would make it easier to catch the digital creatures in the game.
My memory is super fuzzy (I owned Nintendo some years ago).  I vaguely remember that there are 3 companies that own "The Pokémon Company" and that Nintendo owns 32-33%, Game Freak owns a third, and Creatures Co owns another third.  I believe Nintendo is also a majority owner of one of the other "thirds" (Japanese Crossholding mess) and effectively own over 50%.  Is that right?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on July 12, 2016, 03:57:40 PM
well, I think a key difference is that Apple had SJobs back then, and I don't have that high regards for nintendo's current mgt
so maybe we shouldn't be that excited...

Picasso, what's the rough upside you see from this level? Maybe you see it as a long term compounder?

Well as long as everyone on CoBF thinks it's a fad, I think it's probably okay to buy NTDOY. <Insert passive aggressive smiley>

It seems obvious to me that it's going to be a smashing success and only get better over time.  This is probably one of the most valuable franchises in the world and mobile is getting to the point where they can really start to monetize it.  All the prior successful mobile games were garbage repetitive pecking cash grabs, like candy crush or whatever.  But now you have a real massive multiplayer mobile game that can actually take advantage of this massive character universe.  It's like Pokemon was made for the technology that we have today.  Plus all the consumers who loved Pokemon (insert other Nintendo franchise) actually have money to spend.  Which means this app has a ton of value in terms of the traffic it can drive to various venues. 

Now compare what Nintendo has sitting in its pockets to the valuations recently paid for Supercell or Dreamworks Animation.  But the commentary from the finance community reminds me of Apple back in 2003.... https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Apple_Computer/996 (https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Apple_Computer/996)


Quote
I agree that the company has great products and fanatical loyalty, but the question is can this proprietary model which has higher gross margins offset entirely by higher R&D SG&A expense compete effectively with Dell? In other words, can this company ever get to a "normalized" level of profits given its relative cost disadvantage?

Also, I get feeling that this company is being run for the benefit of satisfiying Steve Job's whims and not for shareholders given: 1) hoarding cash for God knows what (Vivdendi or another value-destroying acquisition?) 2) lack of share repurchases/dividends 3) egregious compensation for Jobs (e.g. a $90m airplane given to him by the company in 12/99 and 5m shares of restricted stock in 3/03).

I just don't see a ton of downside.  I see what others are paying for less robust franchises (DWA, Supercell, King Entertainment) and it seems like $15 billion is a low figure for the enterprise value of Nintendo's franchise.  It's being hidden by the crappy hardware business. 

So say $15 billion baseline for the franchises here ($13/share) plus cash per share ($8) gets me to $21 as downside.  I'm (so far) long at $27 (hopefully I can buy more at a lower price) so say 22% downside to some rough estimate of fair value.  But at this point I think you can say that there's a high probability that fair value will quickly approach $27 and what will the market pay for a long time dead money stock that suddenly showing massive, long-term returns on invested capital?  *cough, Apple, cough* We saw what happened with the Wii, but this time they'll be bringing out their franchise into a global mobile market.  It can probably go parabolic at some point like it did with the more faddish Wii. 

The upside will be what it is.  I just think the downside isn't that big and the market is still slow to realize what's just happened because it's anchored to a long-time dead money stock.  Even if there's just a 20% chance this starts compounding I think it's worth going long.

And Pokemon Go may end up worth several tens of billions.  So whatever that stake is worth.  It may be trading at a discount to their "2017" Pokemon stake, plus cash and you get all the other future mobile outcomes for free.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: adesigar on July 13, 2016, 12:25:58 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/13/pokemon-go-now-the-biggest-mobile-game-in-us-history.html

Quotes from the article

"After three days of its release, "Pokemon Go" had attracted more users than Twitter, and rose to the top of the App Store's revenue charts."
"But the game is expected to pass Snapchat on Android in a few days, and it could surpass Google Maps itself as the largest user of Alphabet's mapping data. "

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: DCG on July 13, 2016, 12:39:46 PM
I feel like everyone is checking it out now to see what the hype is about, but it seems like people will stop using this in probably a month or so.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 13, 2016, 02:26:49 PM
I feel like everyone is checking it out now to see what the hype is about, but it seems like people will stop using this in probably a month or so.

I hate being negative, so I think I should stop posting here and ... get off my lawn you Pokemon hunters!!!  >:( ... just kidding.  ;D

I read about the game more at http://www.pcmag.com/news/346042/pokemon-go-how-to-get-started-and-catch-em-all and it seems to be casual-solo-gamer unfriendly. I.e. by the time I get to level 5 - a month with my "turn on when I walk" schedule, everyone will be level 50 or whatever with uberleveled pokemons. So forget about winning in a gym unless you descend on it with a gang of friends. One solution is "pay to win", which is good for the company but may not be good for the game.

Other annoying drawbacks: weather was mentioned abovethread; annoying locations for pokemons - middle of intersection, etc; annoying milling around trying to find the pokemon after phone vibrates - couple times I had to spend couple minutes looking like a dork on a parking lot to find the exact spot where the pokemon appears; huge battery draw on the phone; other phone apps crashing/failing because pokemon is running; looking like a dork and being unsafe by watching the screen all the time while walking - this is alleviated a bit by the vibrate/sound alerts.

Overall, I still vote on fad. But this is not to say NTDOY is buy/sell/short/hold. I think publicity is good for the company and I think it could get some good business results out of this. I won't buy (most likely) but Picasso rationale makes sense.

And now ... get off my lawn you Pokemon hunters!!!
still kidding.  ;D
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on July 13, 2016, 10:32:20 PM
I read about the game more at http://www.pcmag.com/news/346042/pokemon-go-how-to-get-started-and-catch-em-all and it seems to be casual-solo-gamer unfriendly. I.e. by the time I get to level 5 - a month with my "turn on when I walk" schedule, everyone will be level 50 or whatever with uberleveled pokemons. So forget about winning in a gym unless you descend on it with a gang of friends. One solution is "pay to win", which is good for the company but may not be good for the game.

I had those concerns at first, but they've made it really hard to maintain ownership of these gyms.  It's also nearly impossible to pay to win because the only thing you can buy are things like poke balls or lures to create more chances at leveling up.  So if a gym has three pokemon, you get to battle it with six.  And your friends can join in too, or anyone around you on the same team. 

The other thing is that it gets exponentially harder.  It's easy to go from level 1 to 20, but 20 to 50 will take a really long time.  Pokemon that appear once you are level 30 are very hard to catch so you might waste 30 poke balls to finally get it.  Which means the higher level folk will be spending a lot of cash to keep growing, unless they want to keep walking by poke stops. 

I think they've made it more about the social aspect, and to that degree they've only released a tiny portion of what should be coming out.  So far it's just Pokemon Red and Blue (which is why you see so many older people playing it), but there's gold and silver and ruby (hundreds of more Pokemon), etc.  Now add in trading and battling friends directly.  There's a lot that can be done here that isn't just about fighting and holding down gyms. 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ScottHall on July 13, 2016, 10:53:39 PM
Picasso is nailing this stuff. Gold & Silver are the best games in the franchise IMO.

The game doesn't even have the actual handheld game battling/trading functionality yet as far as I can tell (played it today). There is so much more they can and probably will do with this.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: jasonw1 on July 14, 2016, 02:53:07 PM
Great points Picasso.

Pokemon has been around for decades, kids would buy cards, watch TV series, which is very limited distribution channel comparing to making Pokemon available on mobile phones. I've probably spent hundreds of dollars buying Pokemon cards for my 2 kids, each Pokemon card is like a dollar bill, that's how much consumer pays per card. I expect all of that, plus a lot more $$ from new players, will go to the mobile games.

Other point to note, this is the first time a game driving massive traffic in the real world, there is huge potential in terms of advertising, sales lead etc, a market Nintendo hasn't tapped.

I bought some yesterday.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: LC on July 14, 2016, 06:22:07 PM
Apparently google owns 30% of pokemon go.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ccplz on July 14, 2016, 08:52:16 PM
^Source?

BTW: http://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-hedge-fund-manager-wins-big-at-nintendo-1468320199
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: LC on July 15, 2016, 08:25:25 AM
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niantic,_Inc.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: DCG on July 15, 2016, 11:22:53 AM
2 Kids walk off a cliff playing Pokemon:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-pokemon-go-players-stabbed-fall-off-cliff-20160714-snap-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-pokemon-go-players-stabbed-fall-off-cliff-20160714-snap-story.html)

Natural Selection I suppose. This game will do wonders for population control.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 15, 2016, 11:43:49 AM
Yesterday I and my wife go for a walk in the evening. I start Pokemon Go on my phone. It still plays crappy - I guess because my Nexus 4 is old - app freezes when pokemon appear. We see some pokemon in parking lot, there's also a pokegym there, but I could not do anything with my phone. Anyway, a car pulls over to a stop sign nearby. And stands there, and stands there some more. I say "look the guy is also playing the game". Sure enough, the car stands there for another couple minutes, then when traffic appears, he turns the corner and parks nearby with blinkers on.

This shit is making people do stupid and unsafe things... :(

BTW, can you fix your post. The URL is correct, but the underlying link is not pointing to the same page.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Haasje on July 15, 2016, 11:44:35 AM
That's crude DG! It's very sad  :'(
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 15, 2016, 11:50:28 AM
That's crude DG! It's very sad  :'(

They weren't kids. They did not die. (Although it's funny that the firefighters found the second one unconscious while rescuing the first one - so the second guy walked of the cliff and fell earlier and maybe would not have been discovered if the first guy would not have walked off the cliff and fallen later...).

Want a sad one?
http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/12/technology/yelp-executive-grand-canyon-death/index.html
She stepped aside to let a guy by and fell to her death. No good dead goes unpunished?
 :'(
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: rkbabang on July 15, 2016, 11:58:27 AM
2 Kids walk off a cliff playing Pokemon:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-pokemon-go-players-stabbed-fall-off-cliff-20160714-snap-story.html (http://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/lyricwiki/images/3/35/The_Beach_Boys_-_Pet_Sounds.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20130428060830)


Natural Selection I suppose. This game will do wonders for population control.

People are also finding dead bodies all over the place.  Here's one near me:
http://www.unionleader.com/Pokemon-Go-player-discovers-dead-body-in-Nashua

Maybe police detectives should start playing while on duty.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 15, 2016, 12:04:41 PM
So water pokemons are found in the water (with floating bodies). Air pokemons are found in the air (near cliffs). Now I am waiting for news from Hawaii where fire pokemons will be found in lava... together with charred remains of some pokemon hunters. Are there also electricity pokemons?  8)  ;D  ;D
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: DCG on July 15, 2016, 12:14:32 PM
That's crude DG! It's very sad  :'(


My post was mostly tongue-in-cheek, but this game is making people do stupid things.


-I fixed the link in my earlier post.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: rkbabang on July 15, 2016, 12:36:11 PM
So water pokemons are found in the water (with floating bodies). Air pokemons are found in the air (near cliffs). Now I am waiting for news from Hawaii where fire pokemons will be found in lava... together with charred remains of some pokemon hunters. Are there also electricity pokemons?  8)  ;D  ;D

Yes you need to climb the high tension wire towers to get them.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: adesigar on July 15, 2016, 01:59:11 PM
So water pokemons are found in the water (with floating bodies). Air pokemons are found in the air (near cliffs). Now I am waiting for news from Hawaii where fire pokemons will be found in lava... together with charred remains of some pokemon hunters. Are there also electricity pokemons?  8)  ;D  ;D

Pika (Electric sound) Chu (Mouse sound). Pikachu the mascot literally translates to electric mouse.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Travis Wiedower on July 15, 2016, 02:40:38 PM
Want a sad one?
http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/12/technology/yelp-executive-grand-canyon-death/index.html
She stepped aside to let a guy by and fell to her death. No good dead goes unpunished?
 :'(

Sad and unfortunately fairly common. When I was there I kept telling myself "Don't step backwards or to the side and always look down when walking." It's pretty frightening walking anywhere near those edges.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 15, 2016, 03:17:50 PM
So water pokemons are found in the water (with floating bodies). Air pokemons are found in the air (near cliffs). Now I am waiting for news from Hawaii where fire pokemons will be found in lava... together with charred remains of some pokemon hunters. Are there also electricity pokemons?  8)  ;D  ;D

Pika (Electric sound) Chu (Mouse sound). Pikachu the mascot literally translates to electric mouse.

Gotcha-chu! Arigato!  :D
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 16, 2016, 09:54:44 AM
Barron's says NTDOY may double. ;) Article in today's paper.

Edit: looks like just a copy of this http://www.barrons.com/articles/nintendos-monster-hit-just-the-start-1468641746 which seems to be freely accessible.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Deepdive on July 17, 2016, 10:25:18 PM
Wow, I was walking through a park in my local area and saw at least 50 people camping out by a fountain at 8 pm. They had chairs and iceboxes set up and everything. It was crazy, the police had to come by later to kick everyone out since the park closed.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 18, 2016, 09:53:48 AM
Congrats Picasso!  8)

Are you going to hold long term? How long? Do you have a price target? Can I be your slave junior partner?

So many questions, so few pokemons.  ;D
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on July 18, 2016, 12:17:40 PM
Shares are probably ahead of themselves short term, so I sold.  I've learned my lesson with Japanese stocks.  When they pop too quickly they almost always give it all back.  Plus I wanted it to go down to buy more so this is a bit disappointing.   I'm looking more closely at DeNA (2432) to see if there might be a better opportunity there.

Just as a side note, longing NTDOY has the issue of having that heavy cash balance.  So maybe the market only valued the business at $10 billion with $9 billion of excess cash a few weeks ago, but at current prices that operating business value went up to $30 billion (backing out the cash) and basically tripled.   It's not nearly as easy staying long when the market suddenly assigns 3x the value to the operating business.  I'll need to return my value investing card once again for owning NTDOY under a week.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Jurgis on July 18, 2016, 12:39:28 PM
Nope, I think you are right, although this could continue running short term (2-3 months) if the craze continues.

I think if I bought July 8th or July 13th when I was thinking of buying, I'd probably have sold by now too. Although the balls of steel would be to hold while craze continues - which would be possibly couple months (or less, or more) and could be another 50-100% perhaps. But this is tough and really not much of a value investing, more like a fad investing.

Long term hold is only if you believe this will be long term hit and/or that company turned and gonna continue with hits.

Anyway, that's just my 20/20 Monday morning quarterback thoughts. ;)

Pikachu!

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: odin on July 20, 2016, 01:34:42 AM
Shares are probably ahead of themselves short term, so I sold.  I've learned my lesson with Japanese stocks.  When they pop too quickly they almost always give it all back. 

Good timing Picasso.  Day trader extraordinaire!

"Nintendo stock loses ground on report of Pokemon GO delay for Japan"
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nintendo-pokemon-stocks-idUSKCN10001H
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Grenville on July 20, 2016, 08:22:45 PM
Ubisoft Q1 '16 CC positive comments on the NX
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Patmo on July 21, 2016, 06:11:18 AM
All credit should go to Liberty and Joshua Kennedy of Sonian Capital for this idea, go back to page 10 of this thread, they both pinpointed the exact moment it was time to buy Nintendo. Liberty made a 1 line post that summarized the investment case (paraphrase):

"Nintendo is finally going to make mobile games"

That's all anyone needed to know.  But later on you could read a 15-page version of this comment here, as referenced by Picasso

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bzm9JT6Xfru3Nm9QYWJNUk9YVjg/view?pref=2&pli=1 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bzm9JT6Xfru3Nm9QYWJNUk9YVjg/view?pref=2&pli=1)

It was a cheap and safe idea and virtually nobody picked up on it until the first mobile game actually came out. The explosive popularity of the first Nintendo mobile game suggests the more optimistic outlook for the upside to be within grasp, and I wouldn't scoff at people putting money down for some shares at current prices

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on July 31, 2016, 08:21:24 PM
This Pokemon Go thing is a complete disaster. It is incredible how much people are focusing on the positive (the desperation for a real Nintendo game on mobile) and not on the negative (the fact that Nintendo seems culturally incapable of pulling it off).

johnny, please tell me you're following the trainwreck on /r/pokemongo right now.  Players are so angry that they're actually reading the app store terms of service.  Amazing...
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 01, 2016, 07:38:04 AM
What's the anger?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on August 01, 2016, 07:41:34 AM
Niantic removed the feature of the game that tells you how far away Pokemon are.  And then they blocked third part sites from sourcing that info as well.  So it's nearly impossible to track down Pokemon unless you randomly run into them.  It goes beyond that, but Niantic has done a really bad job of rolling out the game.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ccplz on August 01, 2016, 04:57:26 PM
Niantic removed the feature of the game that tells you how far away Pokemon are.  And then they blocked third part sites from sourcing that info as well.  So it's nearly impossible to track down Pokemon unless you randomly run into them.  It goes beyond that, but Niantic has done a really bad job of rolling out the game.

Why did they do that?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 01, 2016, 05:03:30 PM
Niantic removed the feature of the game that tells you how far away Pokemon are.  And then they blocked third part sites from sourcing that info as well.  So it's nearly impossible to track down Pokemon unless you randomly run into them.  It goes beyond that, but Niantic has done a really bad job of rolling out the game.

Dang I'm a total noob then because I was never using that. I leave the game open and if a Pokémon shows up, I catch it. I walk by Pokestops on my way to the train station and that's it. Somehow I'm level 15...

I see all the 1-star reviews in App Store. You're right people are pissed!
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on August 01, 2016, 05:27:47 PM
Rumor is that the tracking method was overloading the servers, so they disabled it.  But they left the foot steps even though it was non functional.  Users ended up using sites like Pokevision.com to track down Pokemon instead, but then Niantic removed the foot steps (even though they didn't work, you'd get sent on wild goose chases all the time) and blocked sites like Pokevision.  It's a total non functioning game at this point.  Unless you like blindly strolling around areas and being a filthy casual versus a hardcore Pokemon grinder. 

It's possible that they've killed Pokemon Go.  There is just so much potential with this app, but it doesn't seem like Niantic is the right partner for it.  Sad...
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: johnny on August 01, 2016, 09:58:18 PM
This Pokemon Go thing is a complete disaster. It is incredible how much people are focusing on the positive (the desperation for a real Nintendo game on mobile) and not on the negative (the fact that Nintendo seems culturally incapable of pulling it off).

johnny, please tell me you're following the trainwreck on /r/pokemongo right now.  Players are so angry that they're actually reading the app store terms of service.  Amazing...

Mhm, I got clued in when I saw some facebook friends posting "how-tos" for getting all of their IAPs refunded by Apple over the mechanics changes. Honestly, once I saw the posting about IAP refunds I started revisiting my opinion that the game was garbage Reading comments like "This saved me $100" sent chills down my spine.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ccplz on August 01, 2016, 10:34:31 PM
Rumor is that the tracking method was overloading the servers, so they disabled it.  But they left the foot steps even though it was non functional.  Users ended up using sites like Pokevision.com to track down Pokemon instead, but then Niantic removed the foot steps (even though they didn't work, you'd get sent on wild goose chases all the time) and blocked sites like Pokevision.  It's a total non functioning game at this point.  Unless you like blindly strolling around areas and being a filthy casual versus a hardcore Pokemon grinder. 

It's possible that they've killed Pokemon Go.  There is just so much potential with this app, but it doesn't seem like Niantic is the right partner for it.  Sad...

I've never used that function either.

No wonder I never found any pokemon..
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: undervalued on August 01, 2016, 11:18:43 PM
It's becoming much harder to catch pokemon now. Previously it was almost guaranteed catch as long as you throw the ball and it catches the pokemon. Now there is a 60% chance that it will break free forcing you to use extra Pokeballs even for common Pokemons. Is there any way to get coins without actually purchasing it using money? There is so much money that can be made with this game. I hope they don't destroy it.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Deepdive on August 02, 2016, 09:24:41 PM
Am I the only one who hasn't played this game yet?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Patmo on August 03, 2016, 04:48:08 AM
Niantic removed the feature of the game that tells you how far away Pokemon are.  And then they blocked third part sites from sourcing that info as well.  So it's nearly impossible to track down Pokemon unless you randomly run into them.  It goes beyond that, but Niantic has done a really bad job of rolling out the game.

That's relatively common even for the biggest developers though. Take a look at what a hot mess Diablo 3 was, courtesy of arguably the best game developer of all time. Diablo 3 was still a huge commercial success. Or Riot Games with LoL, who continually make changes to their game and roll back or redo 20% of the time, and have to adjust their changes 80-100% of the time (made up %'s).The gem is there, Niantic just has to learn from the process.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 03, 2016, 08:29:23 AM
It's becoming much harder to catch pokemon now. Previously it was almost guaranteed catch as long as you throw the ball and it catches the pokemon. Now there is a 60% chance that it will break free forcing you to use extra Pokeballs even for common Pokemons. Is there any way to get coins without actually purchasing it using money? There is so much money that can be made with this game. I hope they don't destroy it.

I think you can get poke coins by taking over a rival gym. One of cousin took over a low level gym, she was rewarded some coins.

I just found this guide by googling
http://gamerant.com/pokemon-go-pokecoins-guide/undefined (http://gamerant.com/pokemon-go-pokecoins-guide/undefined)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on August 03, 2016, 12:57:01 PM
It's becoming much harder to catch pokemon now. Previously it was almost guaranteed catch as long as you throw the ball and it catches the pokemon. Now there is a 60% chance that it will break free forcing you to use extra Pokeballs even for common Pokemons. Is there any way to get coins without actually purchasing it using money? There is so much money that can be made with this game. I hope they don't destroy it.

I think you can get poke coins by taking over a rival gym. One of cousin took over a low level gym, she was rewarded some coins.

I just found this guide by googling
http://gamerant.com/pokemon-go-pokecoins-guide/undefined (http://gamerant.com/pokemon-go-pokecoins-guide/undefined)

Yea - you get 10 coins for taking over a gym, but you have to claim them before it's taken back. Under the top right corner of the shopping tab in the game.

If you maintain the gym, I think you get like 20 coins an hour or something, but you have to claim them. Otherwise you lose them all when you lose the gym.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: adesigar on August 05, 2016, 01:26:23 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/05/health/pokemon-go-autism-aspergers/index.html

I really hope Niantic doesn't mess this game up.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on August 05, 2016, 02:45:08 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/05/health/pokemon-go-autism-aspergers/index.html

I really hope Niantic doesn't mess this game up.

I'm an aspie and so is my son.  I can count my friends on a few fingers, social interactions are extremely awkward and unnatural, and I prefer to do things by myself.

The first week that Pokemon Go came out, I would head out to Santa Monica beach at around 3 AM to catch some Pokemon.  There were a lot of other "trainers" doing the same thing, so it was kind of fun to monitor how the crowds were reacting to different Pokemon.  As I was walking back from the beach where it was a bit less populated, I run into a guy who is also trying to catch a Squirtle to evolve into Blastoise.  We start working together to find them since he's only two away from his Blastoise.  According to PokeVision, there are two Squirtle's that disappear in about five minutes and also about a five minute run down the beach.  So some dude I've never met before is running down the beach with me at 4 AM to catch a couple Pokemon.  I was laughing about it afterwards because it's something that my wife would be in complete disbelief about.

The game is great in that you get to interact with people who normally would be difficult to engage with, especially for autistic people.  I hope that Niantic gets their act together.  There's also a lot of money to be made here, but I see usage falling off quite dramatically.  I've even stopped playing and I'm probably the perfect candidate for the game.  I remember as a kid putting a GameBoy and Pokemon Blue on layaway at Kmart and coming by every couple weeks to pay $5-10 before it was paid off and I could take it home.  If you grew up very poor, Pokemon was such a highlight of your childhood.  Now they have me at an age where I can spend a significant amount of money into the game (whether through hanging out at lures and buying food or actually spending money in the game - I probably dropped in $200+ the first week).  Instead they lost me as a player so that's probably not a good sign.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: LesPaul on August 05, 2016, 03:10:05 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/05/health/pokemon-go-autism-aspergers/index.html

I really hope Niantic doesn't mess this game up.

I'm an aspie and so is my son.  I can count my friends on a few fingers, social interactions are extremely awkward and unnatural, and I prefer to do things by myself.

The first week that Pokemon Go came out, I would head out to Santa Monica beach at around 3 AM to catch some Pokemon.  There were a lot of other "trainers" doing the same thing, so it was kind of fun to monitor how the crowds were reacting to different Pokemon.  As I was walking back from the beach where it was a bit less populated, I run into a guy who is also trying to catch a Squirtle to evolve into Blastoise.  We start working together to find them since he's only two away from his Blastoise.  According to PokeVision, there are two Squirtle's that disappear in about five minutes and also about a five minute run down the beach.  So some dude I've never met before is running down the beach with me at 4 AM to catch a couple Pokemon.  I was laughing about it afterwards because it's something that my wife would be in complete disbelief about.

The game is great in that you get to interact with people who normally would be difficult to engage with, especially for autistic people.  I hope that Niantic gets their act together.  There's also a lot of money to be made here, but I see usage falling off quite dramatically.  I've even stopped playing and I'm probably the perfect candidate for the game.  I remember as a kid putting a GameBoy and Pokemon Blue on layaway at Kmart and coming by every couple weeks to pay $5-10 before it was paid off and I could take it home.  If you grew up very poor, Pokemon was such a highlight of your childhood.  Now they have me at an age where I can spend a significant amount of money into the game (whether through hanging out at lures and buying food or actually spending money in the game - I probably dropped in $200+ the first week).  Instead they lost me as a player so that's probably not a good sign.

I would like to learn more about why some people are putting the game away. Initially I thought the game would just feed off of nostalgia for some time before fading to a smaller hard-core userbase, but I could be wrong.

Is the game less interesting because the catch rates are down? The 'three-step' system that didn't work? A lack of gameplay variation (no trading of pokemon, gym-battle system, no player vs player etc.)? Or the experience grind of catching the same two or three pokemon over and over?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Picasso on August 05, 2016, 04:29:28 PM
Catch rate is down, so even on low level Pokemon with perfect throws and great balls they often run away.  That's just a garbage cash grab to use up pokeballs. 

And that's if you can find the Pokemon.  You'll see the ones you want to catch on your screen but you have no idea where they are.  It's just lots of running around without any direction.  It doesn't even triangulate properly.  And then you have to constantly restart the app because it keeps Pokemon that have previously spawned but now disappeared on the list.  It's really awful.

I assume there will be better variation of play later but at the moment it's just lots of grindy "tap tap tap" that exists in other crappy fremium games.  Not any fun if you're just going to walk around without any purpose and seeing the Pokemon you really want spawning without being able to get to them.

If they can fix the tracking issue then the game improves immensely. 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: merkhet on September 07, 2016, 10:16:57 AM
Looks like Nintendo is bringing Super Mario to iOS.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on September 07, 2016, 10:18:34 AM
Looks like Nintendo is bringing Super Mario to iOS.

Super Mario Run!
If I heard correctly it's going be on the App Store exclusively. Not sure for how long though.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: rkbabang on September 07, 2016, 10:30:50 AM
Looks like Nintendo is bringing Super Mario to iOS.

Super Mario Run!
If I heard correctly it's going be on the App Store exclusively. Not sure for how long though.

And Pokemon Go is getting an Apple Watch app.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Travis Wiedower on September 08, 2016, 06:21:13 AM
Super Mario Run!
If I heard correctly it's going be on the App Store exclusively. Not sure for how long though.
[/quote]

I think it was initially misreported. I later read it will be on Android, but not for the initial launch.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on October 20, 2016, 07:21:18 AM
Apparently Nintendo can still innovate on hardware/gameplay:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5uik5fgIaI&feature=youtu.be

It remains to be seen how good the actual experience would be, but it's good that they're still taking chances.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: eclecticvalue on October 20, 2016, 09:46:40 AM
See Liberty, and many people were saying Nintendo was dead.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on October 20, 2016, 10:46:44 AM
See Liberty, and many people were saying Nintendo was dead.

Well, to be fair, at the time, it probably could've gone either way. It wasn't a given that they would make the right decisions to engineer a comeback.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 15, 2016, 01:23:43 PM
$10...for Super Mario Run....

https://9to5mac.com/2016/11/15/super-mario-run-iphone-ipad-release-date-price/ (https://9to5mac.com/2016/11/15/super-mario-run-iphone-ipad-release-date-price/)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: LC on November 15, 2016, 02:23:27 PM
Good video on how Nintendo differs from most of the large game makers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u6HTG8LuXQ
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Patmo on January 20, 2017, 05:06:11 AM
Anybody still following Nintendo? The new console gadget thingy is generating some buzz, and Breath of the Wild (Zelda IP) is gaining lots of anticipation in particular. I haven't been a customer of these kinds of games since the N64, preferring hardcore competitive games, but even I am getting hyped about it. Something that hasn't happened, well, since the N64... I think I'll dust off the old console and get a game of OoT going again...
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on January 20, 2017, 06:51:19 AM
Agree that this is one of the most promising releases since N64. Nintendo's potential is analagous to that of Walt Disney: strength in its franchises. The Mario, Zelda, and Pokémon franchises should be worth billions each. It's up to management to play to the strength of these franchises and release quality games. If this is pulled off successfully, it can be extremely lucrative. With prior console releases, the franchises didn't get the kinds of major games as done with N64 and now promised with Switch.

This seems to be the first major Zelda release since N64 and first major Mario release since Mario 64. Games that also derive value from the franchises like Mario kart, super smash, and Mario party can also stretch the franchise value. The company also seems to be using multiple platforms (i.e. Smartphone apps such as Pokémon and Super Mario Run) to get more value and further build out these franchises (Disney playbook).

Additionally, the switch seems to embrace the tablet revolution by offering a console that offers portability and big screen options in one package. PlayStation and Xbox cater to more hardcore gamers who are oriented to heavy graphics. Nintendo's potential reach is much broader.

Finally, unlike many prior releases, Nintendo won't be competing head on with Sony and Microsoft (as they don't have any major console upgrades coming soon), thus many of the customers who have PS and Xbox may find it in their budget to add a Switch (but most gamers would never buy a PS and an Xbox as their coverage of games and concepts has too much overlap).
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hyten1 on January 20, 2017, 09:15:54 AM
guys i have been following for some time, there is definitely value in ntdoy, it was much easier to own when it was trading at 13.  how do you put a value on this thing? we all know the potential to become a disney like. but will it happen? if so when?

i know there are sign that its happening, the new addition to theme park, etc.

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on February 02, 2017, 08:35:43 AM
Nintendo Plays With Fire
Nintendo's Fire Emblem introduces the controversial concept of Japanese "gacha" to Western gamers

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/nintendo-plays-with-fire (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/nintendo-plays-with-fire)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on February 24, 2017, 12:27:46 PM

As some other people have said, I think there is a lot of pessimism around the company in general. I feel like people are overall focused on specs and not much on the nolstalgic factor when it comes to the Switch, which I think will be the biggest seller.

Some write-up i did on it:
https://etherealvalue.wordpress.com/2017/02/23/nintendo-ntdoy/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ScottHall on February 24, 2017, 12:37:09 PM

As some other people have said, I think there is a lot of pessimism around the company in general. I feel like people are overall focused on specs and not much on the nolstalgic factor when it comes to the Switch, which I think will be the biggest seller.

Some write-up i did on it:
https://etherealvalue.wordpress.com/2017/02/23/nintendo-ntdoy/

I agree with you w/r/t the Switch. It's not necessarily a great sample size, but everyone who is a gamer in my social network already loves Switch. My brother tried to preorder one and they were sold out everywhere. Nintendo's stock suffers from irrational exuberance and blood-in-the-streets pessimism at alternating moments, based on short term trends. I wouldn't be shocked to see this thing pop in a big way if the Switch sells better than expected.

I own shares but haven't been adding, may do so. I think this company is a treasure chest of undermonetized IP, which will eventually either be unlocked or not. I like the steps they're taking.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: LC on February 24, 2017, 12:45:17 PM
Nintendo Plays With Fire
Nintendo's Fire Emblem introduces the controversial concept of Japanese "gacha" to Western gamers

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/nintendo-plays-with-fire (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/nintendo-plays-with-fire)
Kind of silly. "gacha" are essentially in-game purchases, which have been around for years. Candy crush, anyone?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Patmo on February 24, 2017, 01:42:39 PM
I think they are referring to the ingame purchase strategy, kind of like how buying skins for your character and buying powerups are both ingame purchases, but fundamentally very different.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: LC on February 24, 2017, 01:55:19 PM
The only difference I see is this:

Quote
In Fire Emblem Heroes, as the mobile version is officially known, players can win orbs through battles or buy them, with prices for sets of orbs ranging from $1.99 to $74.99.  They're used to unlock hundreds of characters for a user's party, but the catch is users don't know ahead of time who they'll get

Quote
Compare that with Clash Royale, a popular game made by Finnish developer Supercell Oy. That title also has hints of gacha but money is mostly used to eliminate wait times  -- a clearer payoff.

So it's pretty much gambling.

However the bottom line between both methods is pretty much the same:

Quote
In Japan, studies have shown less than 10 percent of players account for more than 90 percent of revenue.

Farmville (remember that game?) had similar statistics.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on February 24, 2017, 03:10:04 PM
I agree with you w/r/t the Switch. It's not necessarily a great sample size, but everyone who is a gamer in my social network already loves Switch. My brother tried to preorder one and they were sold out everywhere. Nintendo's stock suffers from irrational exuberance and blood-in-the-streets pessimism at alternating moments, based on short term trends. I wouldn't be shocked to see this thing pop in a big way if the Switch sells better than expected.

I own shares but haven't been adding, may do so. I think this company is a treasure chest of undermonetized IP, which will eventually either be unlocked or not. I like the steps they're taking.

I agree that the IPs have great unrealized value. I wouldn't however put too much stock in Switch hype before release. Remember that they, just like Apple, always supply constrain at initial release to feed sense of scarcity. Because of that, you will not be able to tell much by the first few weeks after release on the eventual success of the system. Chances will be the stock price is smarter than we are there.

Hardcore gamers are always hyped before console releases and it would be a very bad omen if they weren't. This goes doubly for Nintendo releases. The first new Zelda game for ages doesn't hurt, of course.


As some other people have said, I think there is a lot of pessimism around the company in general. I feel like people are overall focused on specs and not much on the nolstalgic factor when it comes to the Switch, which I think will be the biggest seller.

Some write-up i did on it:
https://etherealvalue.wordpress.com/2017/02/23/nintendo-ntdoy/

A 10x multiple on the Pokemon company on last year's earnings? Are you forecasting that Pokemon Go will have Minecraft's recurring revenues? Also, there won't be main series entries every year either. Much of the cash is considered operational by management too, so I wouldn't value it at 100%. You could possibly discount it less if/when they stop making hardware.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ScottHall on February 24, 2017, 03:20:36 PM
I agree with you w/r/t the Switch. It's not necessarily a great sample size, but everyone who is a gamer in my social network already loves Switch. My brother tried to preorder one and they were sold out everywhere. Nintendo's stock suffers from irrational exuberance and blood-in-the-streets pessimism at alternating moments, based on short term trends. I wouldn't be shocked to see this thing pop in a big way if the Switch sells better than expected.

I own shares but haven't been adding, may do so. I think this company is a treasure chest of undermonetized IP, which will eventually either be unlocked or not. I like the steps they're taking.

I agree that the IPs have great unrealized value. I wouldn't however put too much stock in Switch hype before release. Remember that they, just like Apple, always supply constrain at initial release to feed sense of scarcity. Because of that, you will not be able to tell much by the first few weeks after release on the eventual success of the system. Chances will be the stock price is smarter than we are there.

Hardcore gamers are always hyped before console releases and it would be a very bad omen if they weren't. This goes doubly for Nintendo releases. The first new Zelda game for ages doesn't hurt, of course.


As some other people have said, I think there is a lot of pessimism around the company in general. I feel like people are overall focused on specs and not much on the nolstalgic factor when it comes to the Switch, which I think will be the biggest seller.

Some write-up i did on it:
https://etherealvalue.wordpress.com/2017/02/23/nintendo-ntdoy/

A 10x multiple on the Pokemon company on last year's earnings? Are you forecasting that Pokemon Go will have Minecraft's recurring revenues? Also, there won't be main series entries every year either. Much of the cash is considered operational by management too, so I wouldn't value it at 100%. You could possibly discount it less if/when they stop making hardware.

Maybe we run with different crowds, but I don't recall anywhere near this much exuberance for Wii U. You may be right about supply constraint, but I was able to find a Wii (original) a few days after release. Maybe just luck though; I don't follow the mechanics of their product shipments at all. I seem to recall they did something similar to what you're suggesting with SNES, but where I read that is forgotten to me.

I don't think the stock price is smart about anything. This stock has been a roller coaster, basically doubling overnight because of Pokemon Go. Same with Wii - stock traded up way too much in an industry where every console generation there is a chance for 30, 40, 50 point swings in market share.

I think 10x for Pokemon is cheap, if anything. I played that stuff as a kid, and it's still around and doing very well. It is an enduring brand that will probably grow somewhat over time, though there are obviously game cycles associated. I'd buy Pokemon as a stand-alone entity at 10x depending on the size of the games contribution. Tons of Pokemon merch; I see kids and young adults (teens and twenties) with t-shirts all the time, so I'd have to take a look at the revenue breakdown. But I'd definitely be sniffing, that's for sure.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on February 24, 2017, 03:35:53 PM
Oh, I'm totally with you that Pokemon is an enduring franchise. I just would hesitate to count last year's earnings from it as anything near normal, although I don't really know what normalized levels would be. To be fair though, there are possibilities of further monetization as an option on the upside too.

My point about the stock price was just that it will be a while before we know for real whether the Switch is doing well and the weeks and perhaps months after release probably won't tell us much.

Wii U was a dud but it actually took a while to know from sales numbers. Anticipation levels can vary wildly and be unpredictable. Some consoles are slow-starters and turn into big-sellers and vice versa. N64 was perhaps the most hyped console ever pre-release but underperformed expectations significantly.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ScottHall on February 24, 2017, 03:47:33 PM
Oh, I'm totally with you that Pokemon is an enduring franchise. I just would hesitate to count last year's earnings from it as anything near normal, although I don't really know what normalized levels would be. To be fair though, there are possibilities of further monetization as an option on the upside too.

My point about the stock price was just that it will be a while before we know for real whether the Switch is doing well and the weeks and perhaps months after release probably won't tell us much.

Wii U was a dud but it actually took a while to know from sales numbers. Anticipation levels can vary wildly and be unpredictable. Some consoles are slow-starters and turn into big-sellers and vice versa. N64 was perhaps the most hyped console ever pre-release but underperformed expectations significantly.

I still play my 64. My brother and I get lit and play Mario Party and Bomberman. A lot of good games there, but agreed on your point w/r/t hype. I just suspect that any positive news could send this stock on a tear. Maybe not immediately

It's kind of an unusual investment for me, because there are no real profits today and it's largely a hits based business. I don't care much about profitability if there's a long runway of high growth, but I think it's way too early to say Nintendo qualifies. I think it's trying the right things; also think if Disney bought Nintendo it would be a very good investment for them. That's part of the allure; I'm assuming assets this good & valuable will not be undermanaged forever.

But then again, this is Japan.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Patmo on March 04, 2017, 05:55:50 AM
Breath of the Wild is shaping into a huge success, every critic is giving it 10/10 scores, and it's seeing a ton of views on twitch. It's pretty Wild (hohoho...). Plenty of people are buying the console just for the game. I'd probably need to buy a TV too on top of it and I am seriously considering the whole deal... Haven't had a console since the N64 or a TV in 5+ years, imagine that... Just watching twitch streams for an hour made me want to buy this bad boy.

It is incredibly rare these days that a game that's super hyped before release, turns out to deliver. And so far it's been delivering big. Of course, it doesn't mean the switch itself will turn out great, but everybody so far has been raving about the game and the console doesn't seem to impede on the experience, so that's a solid start.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on March 04, 2017, 09:06:28 AM
I disagree, this is pretty unsurprising as far as Zelda games go. Early game review scores, while probably an indication when they are this high, are subject to groupthink/hype and have some elements of being paid advertisements. Some (suspicion: most) developers punish publications that give scores that are "too low". 

Hyped-up games delivered in an unrushed, finished state is kind of Nintendo's hallmark. Good, but should be as expected.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: eclecticvalue on March 04, 2017, 09:19:29 AM

I still play my 64. My brother and I get lit and play Mario Party and Bomberman. A lot of good games there, but agreed on your point w/r/t hype. I just suspect that any positive news could send this stock on a tear. Maybe not immediately

It's kind of an unusual investment for me, because there are no real profits today and it's largely a hits based business. I don't care much about profitability if there's a long runway of high growth, but I think it's way too early to say Nintendo qualifies. I think it's trying the right things; also think if Disney bought Nintendo it would be a very good investment for them. That's part of the allure; I'm assuming assets this good & valuable will not be undermanaged forever.

But then again, this is Japan.

Disney will screw it up somehow if it acquired Nintendo.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Patmo on March 04, 2017, 12:20:15 PM
I disagree, this is pretty unsurprising as far as Zelda games go. Early game review scores, while probably an indication when they are this high, are subject to groupthink/hype and have some elements of being paid advertisements. Some (suspicion: most) developers punish publications that give scores that are "too low". 

Hyped-up games delivered in an unrushed, finished state is kind of Nintendo's hallmark. Good, but should be as expected.

Well you don't disagree at all with what I said. You're arguing completely different points, if you'd actually disagree with me you'd have been wrong
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on March 05, 2017, 07:39:46 AM
Breath of the Wild is shaping into a huge success, every critic is giving it 10/10 scores, and it's seeing a ton of views on twitch. It's pretty Wild (hohoho...). Plenty of people are buying the console just for the game. I'd probably need to buy a TV too on top of it and I am seriously considering the whole deal... Haven't had a console since the N64 or a TV in 5+ years, imagine that... Just watching twitch streams for an hour made me want to buy this bad boy.

It is incredibly rare these days that a game that's super hyped before release, turns out to deliver. And so far it's been delivering big. Of course, it doesn't mean the switch itself will turn out great, but everybody so far has been raving about the game and the console doesn't seem to impede on the experience, so that's a solid start.

Well it turns out the hardest thing to make when it comes to video games and movies is to build a new IP. The is an incredibly large difference between the chance for success of an established IP versus a new one, and nintendo has a large number of high quality premium IPs. With mario kart coming soon and another mario game by christmas, i would not be surprised if the Switch sells similar to wii levels. Even if the switch flops, nintendo still has an incredible portfolio to monetize with through various channels (whether its pc/mobile or heck even on the ps/xbox)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on March 17, 2017, 06:02:24 AM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nintendo-to-double-production-of-switch-console-1489728545

Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on April 29, 2017, 11:26:38 AM
Switch crushing it, as expected. This ain't no Wii U.

Still got a lot more games to come and the rest of the year (and holiday season).

And so many possibilities: ie, Will Nintendo take the Zelda BOTW engine/huge map and create a truly open-world 3D Pokemon game?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: flesh on May 03, 2017, 01:23:23 PM
I recently played a dozen of the switch games, whatever they are called that come with it, those that are quite simple like boxing, tennis, etc.......the shaker bottle game.... basically, party games.

If they are any indication of what differentiates the switch, I think this aspect of the biz will be short lived. These games are only interesting because they are different, they aren't any good. I can't really imagine anyone playing these games beyond the honeymoon period where a new system is typically shown off for what's different about it. The games are so bad, so simple, so bland, zero skill. The obvious counter point is that maybe young children will like it, some people want something so simple, I don't buy it. These games specifically create no addiction.



Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ScottHall on May 03, 2017, 01:29:40 PM
I recently played a dozen of the switch games, whatever they are called that come with it, those that are quite simple like boxing, tennis, etc.......the shaker bottle game.... basically, party games.

If they are any indication of what differentiates the switch, I think this aspect of the biz will be short lived. These games are only interesting because they are different, they aren't any good. I can't really imagine anyone playing these games beyond the honeymoon period where a new system is typically shown off for what's different about it. The games are so bad, so simple, so bland, zero skill. The obvious counter point is that maybe young children will like it, some people want something so simple, I don't buy it. These games specifically create no addiction.

Have you played Zelda? That's been the top draw of the console.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: alwaysinvert on May 03, 2017, 01:38:55 PM
Zelda's attach rate was reported to be above 100%. That's decent.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on May 25, 2017, 07:30:49 AM
I recently played a dozen of the switch games, whatever they are called that come with it, those that are quite simple like boxing, tennis, etc.......the shaker bottle game.... basically, party games.

If they are any indication of what differentiates the switch, I think this aspect of the biz will be short lived. These games are only interesting because they are different, they aren't any good. I can't really imagine anyone playing these games beyond the honeymoon period where a new system is typically shown off for what's different about it. The games are so bad, so simple, so bland, zero skill. The obvious counter point is that maybe young children will like it, some people want something so simple, I don't buy it. These games specifically create no addiction.

That game doesn't come with the switch, that game is called 1-2 switch and has been panned by gamers and reviewers. That game has nothing to do with Switch's success.

Best Buy Surges After Nintendo Switch Helps Fuel Sales Gain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-25/best-buy-surges-after-nintendo-switch-console-helps-boost-sales

Looks like selling the switch is a boon for retailers. All this does is build momentum for the console -- 3rd party developers will feel compelled to develop titles for the console and so success drives success (compare with rollout of Wii U).

The only criticism for Switch seems to be lack of games, but obviously a short sighted criticism as that is inevitably going to change in coming months, by the end of the year the console will likely have a critical mass of titles.

Other than that, right now quality of titles over quantity is driving the console's success: Zelda title is the real deal in terms of quality, franchise-building game. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, though a revamped version of a game release previously, will drive multiplayer short-burst gamers to the console as well.

The company should continue to execute by building on their franchises via other platforms such as iOS/Android as these are high ROIC opportunities: the cost of developing this software is low, and the returns are more than adequate. Furthermore, these games, if made properly, only add to the popularity & longevity of the underlying franchises.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: flesh on May 25, 2017, 10:53:52 AM
I see, ya I didn't think what I had to add was of any importance. During this same visit to my friend's his son couldn't stop talking about the open world or whatever it's called on the new zelda, and he was playing it the whole evening, he's in 6th grade I believe.

I've only played FPS since 97' so I don't really know much about the other stuff.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on May 30, 2017, 08:19:55 AM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/7edcebea-4207-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58

Nintendo to ramp up production of Switch as demand soars
Gaming console helps boost company’s valuation to highest since 2008

“Nintendo’s user base has expanded beyond the company’s expectations partly thanks to Pokémon Go, which has made it difficult for the company to predict demand even for traditional software such as Zelda and Mario Kart,” he says.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on June 16, 2017, 08:44:00 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/15/nintendo-switch-second-comeback.html
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on June 16, 2017, 02:51:29 PM
Interesting to hear all of the superficial analysts who never touched video games commenting on Nintendo before the switch came out. It was all about how Nintendo can't compete with MSFT and Sony on hardware, how there aren't enough third party game makers on board, and how the iOS/Android idea was not producing enough revs. All 3 criticisms revealed how little they understood about Nintendo, what makes it different and unique, and the strength of its franchises. Its appeal is broader and potentially more lucrative than going after the hardcore Call of Duty type gamers that Microsoft and Sony focus on, and judging the potential of a console based on its processor power, whether it "has 4K", etc shows the ignorance.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on June 20, 2017, 07:52:11 AM
https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/15/nostalgia-still-marks-the-way-forward-for-nintendo/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ScottHall on June 30, 2017, 05:45:04 AM
This was a pretty obvious short term move. Hopefully it can become a long term trend, rather than a dead cat bounce!
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on June 30, 2017, 04:37:38 PM
I owned Nintendo in the past but decided to stay away this time.  I knew that the IP had tremendous value but -I thought management didn't "get it" (still kind of think that) given execution on mobile forays (pokemon, Mario) were pretty terrible.  The model they chose to monetize Mario was terrible.

It's super ironic since my wife is the #1 breath of the wild streamer on Twitch haha.   

That said, she tried to make YouTube videos commenting on her playing breath of the wild, and Nintendo Told her to take them down or give them 80% of the ad split.  80%...
I feel like they don't "get" that social media/hype is a great thing.

Not to open too big a tangent, but what has her experience been with Twitch? What is her opinion of the co and of the direction the medium is going? Thanks.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ScottHall on June 30, 2017, 05:56:37 PM
I owned Nintendo in the past but decided to stay away this time.  I knew that the IP had tremendous value but -I thought management didn't "get it" (still kind of think that) given execution on mobile forays (pokemon, Mario) were pretty terrible.  The model they chose to monetize Mario was terrible.

It's super ironic since my wife is the #1 breath of the wild streamer on Twitch haha.   

That said, she tried to make YouTube videos commenting on her playing breath of the wild, and Nintendo Told her to take them down or give them 80% of the ad split.  80%...
I feel like they don't "get" that social media/hype is a great thing.

This, sadly, is so true. There are many complaints online by video game video creators who essentially give Nintendo's products free advertising, but show parts of the game on screen to do so. Nintendo has historically not been a fan of that, which is a shame.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on July 03, 2017, 10:08:40 AM
I owned Nintendo in the past but decided to stay away this time.  I knew that the IP had tremendous value but -I thought management didn't "get it" (still kind of think that) given execution on mobile forays (pokemon, Mario) were pretty terrible.  The model they chose to monetize Mario was terrible.

It's super ironic since my wife is the #1 breath of the wild streamer on Twitch haha.   

That said, she tried to make YouTube videos commenting on her playing breath of the wild, and Nintendo Told her to take them down or give them 80% of the ad split.  80%...
I feel like they don't "get" that social media/hype is a great thing.

Your post is hugely ironic. Seems like your wife sees the value of Nintendo IP, but it goes over your own head. Pokemon Go's execution was terrible? News to me.

Even mild success in the app space will give high returns on capital, Nintendo should continue to tinker, they don't need to do anything revolutionary. Who cares if they fail a few times? They can just come out with more stuff on iOS/Android and continue tinkering. Failure in the console space is what would kill them, but the app space is all gravy. And so far in the console space, they are crushing it (thus raising the intangible value and future cash flows of their IP).

The YouTube protectionism is interesting but not too surprising coming from a Co. with valuable IP, just like Disney would do. They don't really need your supposed "free advertising" anyway, Switch sales still crushing it.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: merkhet on July 03, 2017, 11:53:05 AM
Dalal,

It seems like you spend a lot of time on this board condescending to people. Have you considered the idea that this might not be the best way to express yourself and/or participate on this board? You seem like a bright guy/gal, but the way you express yourself seems to limit people's willingness to interact with you.

In the interest of fairness, you're not the only one. (A certain former poster named Harry Long comes to mind.) You just happen to be the most recent one on a thread that I actually follow.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on July 03, 2017, 01:28:22 PM
Dalal,

It seems like you spend a lot of time on this board condescending to people. Have you considered the idea that this might not be the best way to express yourself and/or participate on this board? You seem like a bright guy/gal, but the way you express yourself seems to limit people's willingness to interact with you.

In the interest of fairness, you're not the only one. (A certain former poster named Harry Long comes to mind.) You just happen to be the most recent one on a thread that I actually follow.

Yeah, maybe I overdosed on the Munger prickly demeanor.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: DooDiligence on July 04, 2017, 06:17:51 AM
Dalal,

It seems like you spend a lot of time on this board condescending to people. Have you considered the idea that this might not be the best way to express yourself and/or participate on this board? You seem like a bright guy/gal, but the way you express yourself seems to limit people's willingness to interact with you.

In the interest of fairness, you're not the only one. (A certain former poster named Harry Long comes to mind.) You just happen to be the most recent one on a thread that I actually follow.

Yeah, maybe I overdosed on the Munger prickly demeanor.

Keep 'em coming (without humor, it's all bullshit...)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on July 19, 2017, 07:03:08 PM
http://www.siliconera.com/2017/07/18/people-lined-massive-lines-lottery-chance-getting-switch-consoles-japan/
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on July 26, 2017, 08:48:59 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/nintendo-earnings-q1-2017.html
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on August 10, 2017, 07:22:01 AM
Last Year

https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/13/pokemon-go-tops-twitters-daily-users-sees-more-engagement-than-facebook/

2nd wave

https://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2017/07/28/why-legendary-raids-are-making-pokemon-go-an-absolute-fortune/#4bfc1e5f2b49
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on October 11, 2017, 08:17:00 AM
Continues to make new multi-year highs. Highly anticipated Mario Switch game out soon for the holiday season.

Company increasing switch production to 2 Million a month:

https://www.vg247.com/2017/10/09/nintendo-ramps-up-switch-production-to-2-million-units-per-month-to-meet-demand/

And the company amazingly succeeding with new revenue lines like the SNES classic which is selling out due to high demand:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/supply-issues-nintendo-snes-switch-2017-10?r=US&IR=T

Amazing that Nintendo can generate high demand for its decades old SNES for a relatively high price of $80 for technology that's effectively obsolete today. Speaks to the value of its franchises more than anything.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on October 30, 2017, 03:09:27 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nintendo-results/nintendo-doubles-profit-outlook-on-strong-switch-console-sales-idUSKBN1CZ0JK

Nintendo now expects profit of 120 billion yen ($1.06 billion) for the year ending March versus 65 billion yen estimated three months ago, boosted by Switch sales as well as a weaker yen against the euro.

Nintendo also raised its year-end Switch sales forecast to 14 million consoles from 10 million. The new annual target would alone exceed lifetime sales of 13.56 million consoles for the Wii U, which was on the market for about five years.

The preceding blockbuster Wii, which debuted in late 2006, sold about 20 million in its first year and went on to sell over 100 million units.

Nintendo sold about 2.9 million Switch consoles in the three months through September, bringing the cumulative total to 7.63 million units.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: ScottHall on November 14, 2017, 05:03:18 PM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mario-bros-set-to-jump-to-big-screen-in-movie-deal-with-universals-illumination-1510675881

It seems pretty clear now that we've passed the inflection point of how this company is looking at its IP treasure trove. They're still at early stages compared with what could be possible, IMO.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on November 25, 2017, 12:44:34 PM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mario-bros-set-to-jump-to-big-screen-in-movie-deal-with-universals-illumination-1510675881

It seems pretty clear now that we've passed the inflection point of how this company is looking at its IP treasure trove. They're still at early stages compared with what could be possible, IMO.

Yeah, current management seems to "get it" in terms of monetizing and strengthening their IP after maybe ~10 years of stagnation (highlighted by the Wii U). Stock now at record highs and Switch sold out at major retailers at the start of the core of holiday shopping season (sold out on Amazon right now). Shows that the Switch remains supply constrained and that demand largely outstrips supply. Releasing this console in March vs holiday season 2017 was a great move as the console has clearly built strong momentum coming into this season with each major release...

This momentum has translated into third party developers jumping on board out of necessity.

Meanwhile, the company seems to have created a favorable platform for indie game developers -- a relatively new area where Nintendo can further build out the appeal of its platform.

Company executing well thus far.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Spekulatius on November 25, 2017, 07:06:19 PM
I owned Nintendo in the past but decided to stay away this time.  I knew that the IP had tremendous value but -I thought management didn't "get it" (still kind of think that) given execution on mobile forays (pokemon, Mario) were pretty terrible.  The model they chose to monetize Mario was terrible.

It's super ironic since my wife is the #1 breath of the wild streamer on Twitch haha.   

That said, she tried to make YouTube videos commenting on her playing breath of the wild, and Nintendo Told her to take them down or give them 80% of the ad split.  80%...
I feel like they don't "get" that social media/hype is a great thing.

Your post is hugely ironic. Seems like your wife sees the value of Nintendo IP, but it goes over your own head. Pokemon Go's execution was terrible? News to me.

Even mild success in the app space will give high returns on capital, Nintendo should continue to tinker, they don't need to do anything revolutionary. Who cares if they fail a few times? They can just come out with more stuff on iOS/Android and continue tinkering. Failure in the console space is what would kill them, but the app space is all gravy. And so far in the console space, they are crushing it (thus raising the intangible value and future cash flows of their IP).

The YouTube protectionism is interesting but not too surprising coming from a Co. with valuable IP, just like Disney would do. They don't really need your supposed "free advertising" anyway, Switch sales still crushing it.

I think Pokémon go has been a bust. This could have been a long term franchise and became a fad, mostly due to the game being badly designed for long term players. When did you see a kid playing this on their phone the last time?
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: hobbit on November 25, 2017, 07:45:57 PM
I owned Nintendo in the past but decided to stay away this time.  I knew that the IP had tremendous value but -I thought management didn't "get it" (still kind of think that) given execution on mobile forays (pokemon, Mario) were pretty terrible.  The model they chose to monetize Mario was terrible.

It's super ironic since my wife is the #1 breath of the wild streamer on Twitch haha.   

That said, she tried to make YouTube videos commenting on her playing breath of the wild, and Nintendo Told her to take them down or give them 80% of the ad split.  80%...
I feel like they don't "get" that social media/hype is a great thing.

Your post is hugely ironic. Seems like your wife sees the value of Nintendo IP, but it goes over your own head. Pokemon Go's execution was terrible? News to me.

Even mild success in the app space will give high returns on capital, Nintendo should continue to tinker, they don't need to do anything revolutionary. Who cares if they fail a few times? They can just come out with more stuff on iOS/Android and continue tinkering. Failure in the console space is what would kill them, but the app space is all gravy. And so far in the console space, they are crushing it (thus raising the intangible value and future cash flows of their IP).

The YouTube protectionism is interesting but not too surprising coming from a Co. with valuable IP, just like Disney would do. They don't really need your supposed "free advertising" anyway, Switch sales still crushing it.

I think Pokémon go has been a bust. This could have been a long term franchise and became a fad, mostly due to the game being badly designed for long term players. When did you see a kid playing this on their phone the last time?

pokemon go is consistently in top 15 grossing in app store..
https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/pokemon-go/app-ranking/?device=iphone&type=grossing-ranks&date=2017-11-24

The success of pokemon go allowed nintendo to sell tons of 3ds and pokemon sun and moon last year followed by ultra sun and moon this year

Nintendo was an early bird investor(<20 million) in Niantic  which raised 200 million last week..

The anticipation for the pokemon game for switch is crazy..and it will end up selling as well as the recent mario and lot of switch hardware as well

all of this has been catalyzed by pokemon go 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Patmo on November 25, 2017, 09:58:45 PM
I think you guys are both right, the game was a definite bust in terms of design (at least at the start, don't know if it's still bad) but it also strongly signaled a change in strategic direction for Nintendo. This game lit up so hard at launch, to boot, and turned out to be a financial success. I imagine it couldn't have hurt in anchoring the new strategic vision in Nintendo's offices as a good one.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on November 26, 2017, 07:20:45 AM
I owned Nintendo in the past but decided to stay away this time.  I knew that the IP had tremendous value but -I thought management didn't "get it" (still kind of think that) given execution on mobile forays (pokemon, Mario) were pretty terrible.  The model they chose to monetize Mario was terrible.

It's super ironic since my wife is the #1 breath of the wild streamer on Twitch haha.   

That said, she tried to make YouTube videos commenting on her playing breath of the wild, and Nintendo Told her to take them down or give them 80% of the ad split.  80%...
I feel like they don't "get" that social media/hype is a great thing.

Your post is hugely ironic. Seems like your wife sees the value of Nintendo IP, but it goes over your own head. Pokemon Go's execution was terrible? News to me.

Even mild success in the app space will give high returns on capital, Nintendo should continue to tinker, they don't need to do anything revolutionary. Who cares if they fail a few times? They can just come out with more stuff on iOS/Android and continue tinkering. Failure in the console space is what would kill them, but the app space is all gravy. And so far in the console space, they are crushing it (thus raising the intangible value and future cash flows of their IP).

The YouTube protectionism is interesting but not too surprising coming from a Co. with valuable IP, just like Disney would do. They don't really need your supposed "free advertising" anyway, Switch sales still crushing it.

I think Pokémon go has been a bust. This could have been a long term franchise and became a fad, mostly due to the game being badly designed for long term players. When did you see a kid playing this on their phone the last time?

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2017-11-25-pokemon-go-players-catch-3bn-creatures-in-six-days-to-unlock-farfetchd

Quote
Over the past six days, the Pokémon Go community has made steady progress towards catching 3bn creatures. Yes, three billion - quite frankly, a ridiculous total. But, as of the early hours of Sunday morning - and comfortably within the time limit - this total has been reached.

3bn Pokémon in just over six days. And people say Pokémon Go is dead...
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: mrholty on November 26, 2017, 07:55:11 PM


I think Pokémon go has been a bust. This could have been a long term franchise and became a fad, mostly due to the game being badly designed for long term players. When did you see a kid playing this on their phone the last time?

Its interesting that you posted this.  I was out riding my bikes with my kids on a nice afternoon in Wisconsin (thanks Global Warming) and a car pulls up near a church.  Out pop 2 kids with a phone.  My son recognizes one and calls out to him.  Find out the kids are playing Pokemon Go and Dad is driving them around town. 

I know that kids still play it.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on December 07, 2017, 01:31:42 PM
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-12-01-nintendo-switch-was-the-best-selling-online-product-over-thanksgiving

Nintendo was the best selling console during black friday despite almost no discounts.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on December 08, 2017, 11:31:05 AM
http://www.rollingstone.com/glixel/news/breath-of-the-wild-wins-game-of-the-year-at-game-awards-w513631

"Breath of the Wild" wins 2017's Game of the Year Award. Nintendo at the top of its game.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on January 04, 2018, 06:56:37 AM
Nintendo Switch becomes the fastest selling console in U.S. history:

http://m.ign.com/articles/2018/01/04/nintendo-switch-now-the-fastest-selling-home-console-in-us-history

Wonder how all those analysts lamenting the lack of high level graphics vs PS2 and XBox just a year ago feel now...
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: vegaseller on January 31, 2018, 11:51:08 AM
large beat on earnings and revenues

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/nintendo-earnings-q3-2017.html
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: DooDiligence on February 01, 2018, 03:52:56 AM
Speaking of beats & Switch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpQAHhIjumA

If it was an 88 key piano, I might get one!
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on February 05, 2018, 10:58:47 AM
There’s A New Super Mario Movie Coming, And This Time It’s Actually Animated

https://www.geek.com/games/theres-a-new-super-mario-movie-coming-and-this-time-its-actually-animated-1729777/ (https://www.geek.com/games/theres-a-new-super-mario-movie-coming-and-this-time-its-actually-animated-1729777/)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: fareastwarriors on June 25, 2018, 07:06:48 AM
The Legend of Nintendo

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-21/how-nintendo-s-switch-helped-the-japanese-gaming-giant-win-again (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-21/how-nintendo-s-switch-helped-the-japanese-gaming-giant-win-again)
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: tombgrt on September 14, 2018, 02:10:01 AM
Bought a switch to enjoy with friends and fzmily and very very impressed with the console and games like Mario and Zelda. Line up looks really impressive and as someone who enjoys board games I'm curious how carcasonne, Catan etc will work out.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Liberty on February 25, 2019, 11:52:36 AM
Writeup on Nintendo:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ULEiRakfsxReDvv5xOG1gglTDkwJa791pZR_458xWWg/edit#slide=id.g4ce9c58e07_0_0

Via https://twitter.com/HardcoreValue/status/1100113864102952960
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: SHDL on February 25, 2019, 02:12:55 PM
Writeup on Nintendo:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ULEiRakfsxReDvv5xOG1gglTDkwJa791pZR_458xWWg/edit#slide=id.g4ce9c58e07_0_0

Via https://twitter.com/HardcoreValue/status/1100113864102952960

That’s a good summary of the bull case. 

So far I’ve been reluctant to take a big position though because I don’t have a great deal of confidence in their management.  It’s something I see a lot with Japanese companies: ultra conservative, slow moving, questionable capital allocation, and generally just not shareholder friendly.  But if they were to be acquired by the right kind of company.... 
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: Foreign Tuffett on February 26, 2019, 05:57:26 AM
Unless there is evidence otherwise, I have a very hard time believing that Nintendo would ever sell itself, particularly to a foreign buyer. I present as evidence (1) Nintendo's history (2) Japanese corporate governance more generally and (3) the recent Nissan-Renault drama, which I believe is (in part) an example of the craziness that can happen when you plan to merge a high profile Japanese company with a foreign company.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: SHDL on February 26, 2019, 09:49:10 AM
Unless there is evidence otherwise, I have a very hard time believing that Nintendo would ever sell itself, particularly to a foreign buyer. I present as evidence (1) Nintendo's history (2) Japanese corporate governance more generally and (3) the recent Nissan-Renault drama, which I believe is (in part) an example of the craziness that can happen when you plan to merge a high profile Japanese company with a foreign company.

Those are good reasons to be skeptical.  I can’t think of too many companies that could pull it off successfully either, though I think Apple might be an exception.

On Apple, there was an article in Barron’s not too long ago that talked about why they should buy Nintendo.  I didn’t find the discussion there particularly insightful, but I happen to agree with the conclusion.

My personal take on this is that if Apple were to acquire Nintendo, they could probably (a) get rid of the console business, (b) make the games run on Apple devices (wirelessly connected to Nintendo-branded controllers) instead, (c) sell access to the game library via a subscription service, and (d) let the guys at Nintendo focus on developing great games and not worry about making money.  I can imagine a package like that being a win for all parties involved.

Also, there are no controlling shareholders or policies currently in place at Nintendo that could block such a move, so things seem clear on that front.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: johnny on February 28, 2019, 01:25:43 AM
My personal take on this is that if Apple were to acquire Nintendo, they could probably (a) get rid of the console business, (b) make the games run on Apple devices (wirelessly connected to Nintendo-branded controllers) instead, (c) sell access to the game library via a subscription service, and (d) let the guys at Nintendo focus on developing great games and not worry about making money.  I can imagine a package like that being a win for all parties involved.

It is delusional to think that Nintendo will agree to be acquired by Apple under such circumstances. Being stripped of their autonomy and becoming a captive second-party developer for a platform run by a company that has demonstrated nothing but disrespect for gaming/gamers/game-devs is not something -any- self respecting organization would do short of absolute financial catastrophe--and Nintendo has enough cash hoarded to see it through plenty of bad cycles.

Apple and Nintendo merging made a lot of sense, half a decade ago. But it would have required a certain amount of vision and willingness to compromise. Nintendo doesn't have the space to compromise, and the C-suite at Apple clearly lacks anything resembling vision.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: SHDL on February 28, 2019, 03:46:33 AM
Would you care to elaborate on the “disrespect” you speak of?  Maybe you know something I’m missing. TIA.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: johnny on February 28, 2019, 04:24:13 AM
Actually meant to say disinterest there. However, I think the Freudian version works too.

When the Apple TV launched, it was pretty clear that Apple's position on gaming was that it wasn't something that deservedtheir attention. It certainly didn't have a coherent plan (different docs at launch had totally contradictory information on key development constraints for the platform; IE whether or not you could make a game that required an actual gaming controller). Very reminiscent of the iPhone-launch-era dismissiveness of third party developers. Except at least the iPhone-launch was an a priori error. By 2016 we were all aware that GAMES were driving the substantial bulk of all of that precious service revenue Tim was always droning on about. So the lack of attention was completely negligent. I'd call it disdainful.

The iPhone became a huge platform for casual games, thanks to no real affirmative decision by Apple to make it so--it was a total accident, a windfall that I think has fed into Apple's worst tendencies (arrogance about their own platform's superiority, dismissiveness about those who disagree with their tradeoffs or aesthetically-guided product roadmaps).

The fact that, back when Nintendo was at like $10B EV, Apple didn't have an army of diplomats and escorts in Tokyo doing whatever it took to get a deal done is all you need to know.

An organization -that- oblivious to such an incredible opportunity is going to be just as pathetic at implementing the strategy.

Look at the broad narrative history of Apple's share buybacks. Einhorn and Icahn and everybody else spent years screaming at Tim to repurchase shares. Well eventually he got religion, and they've proceeded to top-tick the repurchases like they don't really understand what the point of it all is. If it takes them five years to figure out they should do something, they're going to botch it when you eventually trick them into doing it.

If Apple and Nintendo got hitched, I'd be pushing for it to be a NeXT-style acquisition, where everybody involved in tvOS gets shot out of a cannon (including Eddie Cue) and Japan takes the entire thing over. Incidentally, that's the only sort of deal I could see passing the cultural acid test over there.
Title: Re: NTDOY - Nintendo
Post by: SHDL on February 28, 2019, 06:07:50 AM
I somewhat agree.  Although, the fact that Apple has been several years late on so many things actually makes me think that they will be several years late again in the gaming space and finally start doing something there before too long.