Author Topic: NVTR - Nuvectra  (Read 20681 times)

wachtwoord

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #40 on: June 06, 2017, 08:19:23 AM »
Any updates on your thesis? I originally bought this because it was trading below net cash and the research on the product showed this had an above average chance of succeeding (so a relatively easy  bet) but now it doubled in price I'm re-evaluating.
"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master"

MRCR - FELP - ALS.TO - PDER - COMX - WWIB.OL -
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Gregmal

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #41 on: August 08, 2017, 03:40:40 PM »
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/08/08/1081799/0/en/Nuvectra-Reports-Second-Quarter-2017-Financial-Results.html

This one looks to be moving along nicely. Sales roll out is so far happening fairly smoothly. Still have 2-3 quarters of cash to burn before a capital raise, and by then I wouldn't be shocked if the stock is north of $20.

701 LV

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #42 on: August 10, 2017, 07:26:51 AM »
Agreed with all the above. I also purchased NVTR when it was trading below cash value and have held on for the ride after seeing their continued momentum with rolling out the Algovita system. With full body MRI capability hopefully being FDA approved by year-end, recent buying by the CEO at the $10 range, and continued sales progress being helped by reps hitting their 6-9 monthly tenure where production begins to ramp and a number of reps having their 1 year non-compete's fall off in the coming quarters, I think the future is very bright.

wachtwoord

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #43 on: August 10, 2017, 08:46:26 AM »
Thanks for the replies. I have decided against selling (for now) as well. Everything seems to have gone as well as could be expected it seems.

Thanks to spinoffinvesting and wjsco for pitching this initially! Are you guys still in this too? (I'm expecting at least wjsco is).
"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master"

MRCR - FELP - ALS.TO - PDER - COMX - WWIB.OL -
 SODI - NVTR - ADDC - UPGI - HNFSA - IPO.TO - BONL - BWEL - GNW - NYRT - POE.V

701 LV

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #44 on: August 12, 2017, 03:47:35 PM »
CEO with another open market purchase of 10K shares yesterday at $11.72.

RichardGibbons

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #45 on: August 12, 2017, 11:23:51 PM »
Yeah, I'm still in this too, other than a third I ditched in the low 14s to recycle my capital and to play psychological games with myself.

I like this report, but am nervous about the cash burn.  Originally, my thesis was that Nuvectra was a reasonable bet. If the rollout succeeds, the returns would be high.  The rollout fails, the net cash could cushion things--maybe the stock only falls from $5 to $2 before I exit.  Heads, we lose $X, tails we win $6X.

But at these prices, that thesis isn't valid any more because the price has gone up and the cash has gone down and continues to decline.  In fact, to me, it looks like Nuvectra is going to have to raise capital.  That's not a big deal, except if there's a hiccup in the rollout, in which case it becomes a really big deal, and would likely cause the stock to plummet.

So, my thinking is that the risk of failed execution in the first 8 months of the year has disappeared, and but, because of the stock price increase/cash decrease, the risk of loss in the current position is much higher than it was in originally.  (First world problem--our stock more than doubled without fundamentals improving to the same degree, so the risk of decline has increased and the amount of capital we have at risk has increased too.  Boo hoo!)

That said, I plan to keep the rest of the position until it either becomes really expensive, or there's some evidence of the business faltering. As far as I can see, this report has no evidence of  the business faltering.  On the contrary, in fact.


RichardGibbons

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #46 on: January 10, 2018, 11:50:12 AM »
Nuvectra's Q3 results weren't that great, but the Q4 preannouncement looked good to me, with over 50% Q/Q revenue growth (and 64% growth for Algovita).

My main fear was that the new sales team would be ineffective in convincing doctors to use the device. I think these numbers diminish that concern.


701 LV

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #47 on: January 10, 2018, 04:14:58 PM »
I was glad to see the pre-announcement too. I think the market still is discounting NVTR due to potential dilution coming. But they have to be able to fund their growth, so I see it as a necessary evil.

701 LV

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #48 on: February 01, 2018, 06:34:29 AM »
Announced pricing of 2.825M shares at $8.00. Shares up 5% to $8.50 after the news.

701 LV

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #49 on: May 03, 2018, 01:08:07 PM »
New all-time high at $15.15. Another solid quarter, and continue to ramp up sales and gain market share. Still trading cheap compared to comps. 2.5x EV/2019E Sales, versus Nevro at 5.4 EV/2019E Sales.

$58M cash on hand, and they burned through about $9M last quarter. I'm guessing they raise again around this time next year, but if they continue the revenue growth, should be at a higher price than we are at today.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2018, 11:07:26 AM by 701 LV »