Author Topic: NVTR - Nuvectra  (Read 20776 times)

701 LV

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #50 on: June 12, 2018, 11:09:40 AM »
Just keeps on climbing. Anyone else in this name? Have a price target? I'm trying to decide if I should trim up my position at all. Currently at 5.25x/2018E Sales. Pretty close to what Nevro is trading at (5.7x) but compared to what their future numbers are projected at, there should still be tons of room to run...guess I'm just getting paranoid after watching what a runner this has been the last few months.


Gregmal

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #51 on: June 12, 2018, 11:47:06 AM »
Just keeps on climbing. Anyone else in this name? Have a price target? I'm trying to decide if I should trim up my position at all. Currently at 5.25x/2018E Sales. Pretty close to what Nevro is trading at (5.7x) but compared to what their future numbers are projected at, there should still be tons of room to run...guess I'm just getting paranoid after watching what a runner this has been the last few months.

Trimmed a bit yesterday. Still like it but not a core position after the big run. Wish they had held off on the capital raise a little longer, otherwise, very pleased with their execution.

InelegantInvestor

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #52 on: June 12, 2018, 01:31:50 PM »
Also in this. Have not sold any, but it's still a small position for me.
So far they have executed, if they continue to, there is ample room for growth.

RichardGibbons

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #53 on: June 12, 2018, 05:08:30 PM »
I'm still in it.  After selling half my position at $14, rebuying it at about $9 just after the offering, I resold that half again at about $14 (a bad decision, in retrospect). But I continue to hold half.

I'm mulling what to do with that half, partly because I'm uncertain of the moat, and partly because I'm unclear about their long term future. I'm nervous when an allegedly hypergrowth company has a quarter with revenue down sequentially, even if there is an explanation for it.  Plus, having their R&D expenses down year over year makes me wonder where they go next.  (Sure, they should be focusing on sales and pushing the other two use-cases through regulatory approvals, but is there a product that comes after that?)

My back of the napkin still shows upside. $2B primary market with several competitors where, if they take 10%, they get $200M in revenue.  $1.4B secondary markets with fewer competitors. If they get 20% of those markets, that's $280M. So, about 500M sales.  At a 4x multiple, that's a $2B market cap versus $300M today, or a 6.5 times upside (though part of that return will be diluted away by another equity offering in the next 12 months.)



701 LV

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Re: NVTR - Nuvectra
« Reply #54 on: June 13, 2018, 08:40:48 AM »
I've decided to hold..I don't have anything else that I'm needing dry powder for at this time, and I still think NVTR has great long-term potential. Like you said though, it's going to depend on if there gets to be dilution concerns like there were in January and how much of a drag that puts on the stock. Biggest concern of mine is that with their success this has ballooned to be my largest position..Ha a good problem to have I suppose!