Author Topic: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.  (Read 14605 times)

ValueMaven

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2018, 04:49:38 PM »
Maybe I am missing something here...BUT to me this is a very, very easy lay-up.  The whole sector is on FIRE, the market is pricing this thing as if the QCOM deal is already broken.  Let's not forget, NXPI will receive $2bn of CASH from QCOM if/once the deal breaks.  Management hasnt provided any guidance in the latest quarterly release, but I see a lot of upside.  In my own view this is as close to a win-win as possible.

I bet all of those merger-arb Fund's have gotten crushed recently in the name...

IMHO this is a 30% IRR+ over the next 12M


given2invest

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2018, 11:01:18 AM »
Maybe I am missing something here...BUT to me this is a very, very easy lay-up.  The whole sector is on FIRE, the market is pricing this thing as if the QCOM deal is already broken.  Let's not forget, NXPI will receive $2bn of CASH from QCOM if/once the deal breaks.  Management hasnt provided any guidance in the latest quarterly release, but I see a lot of upside.  In my own view this is as close to a win-win as possible.

I bet all of those merger-arb Fund's have gotten crushed recently in the name...

IMHO this is a 30% IRR+ over the next 12M

You have basically gotten it right...this is good here.  I bought on the earnings blowup.  It's a lotto ticket the china trade thing gets fixed by July (unlikely) but even if not - stock is higher in the next 3-6 months.  Probably much higher.

peterHK

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2018, 09:03:10 AM »
Probably 30%+ IRR over the next 12 months (barring a recession), but I think long term with potential for 4-6% topline growth and 10-12% EPS growth, you're looking at a 10-15% IRR over the next decade, which is far more valuable than a quick win.

The real beauty of this is that you can buy into the long term story with a huge margin of safety and many ways to win.

ValueMaven

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2018, 05:07:15 PM »
From QCOM this evening:

Chief Executive Steve Mollenkopf said the new authorization would "enable our continued anti-dilutive share repurchases, adding that it would "provide flexibility for potential additional repurchases, as we execute on our proposed acquisition of NXP,

Lakesider

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2018, 05:18:19 PM »
From QCOM this evening:

Chief Executive Steve Mollenkopf said the new authorization would "enable our continued anti-dilutive share repurchases, adding that it would "provide flexibility for potential additional repurchases, as we execute on our proposed acquisition of NXP,

Flexibility in case the merger is declined and they are sitting on a boatload of cash?

What are you reading from that statement?


ValueMaven

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2018, 05:45:01 PM »
Deal fails they pay NXPI $2bn...so we will see either way.  I still believe its a win-win at this point

peterHK

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2018, 01:57:21 PM »
I called them and talked to their IR about doing a buyback, so interesting they speak out about it now.

Also, on the CEO selling most of his stock. He had a 10 year tax holiday that expired last year, so he was going to sell it anyway. That doesn't bug me as he had a huge holding, but what I want to see is him buying it back at these lower prices.

Lakesider

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2018, 03:54:34 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-china-zte/in-concession-trump-will-help-chinas-zte-get-back-into-business-idUSKCN1IE0QI

I see this as potentially a positive sign towards Qualcomm deal approval. Qcom spend alot lobbying Washington.

Maybe just wishful thinking.

ValueMaven

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2018, 04:14:17 PM »
Yes - it is nice to see...I still think the deal happens actually, and that the market is massively mispricing this one.  NXPI is my largest holding by far at this point.  Let's not forget the whole semis space is on FIRE, and the valuation w/NXPI is dirt cheap.  Even if the deal breaks, I still think it goes higher....

ValueMaven

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2018, 04:16:48 PM »
also, Elliott has been DEAD silent here...I find that very odd given how large of a position it is for them, and how vocal they were.