Part of the issue here is that arb shops can't handicap the political risk and are also trading on stats (ie using vols as a risk measure), so they're getting absolutely whipsawed around. It sort of compounds because they're also most of the trading volume (I'd wager) so you see moves that then exacerbate themselves as other shops are forced to sell as risk levels get triggered.
In the end I think either the deal gets done, or if it doesn't, you should be a buyer at ~$100 or less for a top quality analog name with a constrained balance sheet that becomes unlocked and owner/operator management (CEO sold his stock due to taxes, not because he wants out).
