Author Topic: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.  (Read 16814 times)

Lakesider

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #40 on: July 11, 2018, 07:39:44 PM »
I am watching to see this thing go under 100 again.

I think the deal being approved is not going to happen, even with the ZTE deal. China arnt going to give any thing up with trump increasing his tariffs. There appears to have been some manipulation going on here, maybe we should leak a story that the deal is going through ;)


ValueMaven

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #41 on: July 11, 2018, 07:46:30 PM »
If the deal fails - it is very possible NXPI rips higher from here IMHO.  For starters QCOM will pay $2bn on the morning of the 26th...

Let's not forget the underlying business is doing very well right now...

At this point you have 2.5 weeks left before a break happens.  Its a very decent risk-reward

Spekulatius

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #42 on: July 12, 2018, 04:07:35 AM »
I am back in...

Discount is way too wide right now...even given all of the Tariff issues. 

IF the deal breaks, buy more

In the current climate - why would China approve this deal? What is their incentive to do so?
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

peterHK

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #43 on: July 12, 2018, 06:27:54 AM »
I think the focus on whether the deal happens is so ridiculously shortsighted.

They're going to have $8bn in cash: 20% of the market cap. They haven't had an earnings call in a year so the street isn't paying attention to how the business is doing. It's doing fine, and it's in a very attractive industry growing at 2x GDP sustainably.


Zorrofan

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #44 on: July 12, 2018, 06:28:29 AM »
China's approval of the deal could be a face-saving way of restarting negotiations with regards to tariffs?

Gregmal

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #45 on: July 12, 2018, 07:03:43 AM »
I am back in...

Discount is way too wide right now...even given all of the Tariff issues. 

IF the deal breaks, buy more

In the current climate - why would China approve this deal? What is their incentive to do so?

I think you need to flip that around. Why wouldn't China approve this?

Not approving this, is an irreversible blunder. Probably worse than any tariff because it can't just be "undone". Holding this in limbo forever has the same effect without the lasting consequences.

Otherwise, agree that this is just another example of market stupidity. Just like Peter said. There's no reason any investor who's holding a pile of cash shouldn't be in on this. Risk to reward is excellent on both short term and long term basis. Or wait, TRADE WAR! Dump your stocks, tank the market several hundred points, and then watch it trade back to the same level within a week!

Spekulatius

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #46 on: July 12, 2018, 08:23:38 AM »
The street does pay attention to 41% of NXPIs revenues being tied to China..
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

given2invest

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #47 on: July 12, 2018, 08:33:06 AM »
I'm also huge in this and think the deal goes through.

That said, if you own this thinking its a buy if it breaks, you're doing it wrong.  You will easily get to buy it at 90 or 95 in a break. 

Spekulatius

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #48 on: July 12, 2018, 08:36:08 AM »
At $90-95, I will buy some too. I dont think that deal approval is likely - China might run out of tariffs to retaliate, which means they will do so in other ways. Doing nothing is either for them.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

given2invest

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Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Reply #49 on: July 12, 2018, 08:57:50 AM »
At $90-95, I will buy some too. I dont think that deal approval is likely - China might run out of tariffs to retaliate, which means they will do so in other ways. Doing nothing is either for them.

Not true.  They gain a lot from approving.

1) They get concessions from NewCo vs. nothing if they don't approve.
2) They get goodwill from EU and rest of world, not to mention U.S.

It made complete sense they would wait till the 11th hour to approve.  They want to hold as much leverage as possible with ZTE outstanding and the larger trade war.  But once it becomes clear this deal will DIE on July 25th, they hold no leverage anymore.  And there is no way to put it back together if they don't act.

They also approved the 20b Toshiba deal to a US PE firm just a few weeks ago.  It shows the are not holding up every deal, merely delaying them for leverage.

Final point:  QCOM and NXPI will be pissed if this dies and could move biz operations outside of China over the coming months/years to make sure they don't get screwed again.  Yet another reason to approve the deal.