Author Topic: ORCL - Oracle  (Read 31923 times)

dwy000

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 593
Re: ORCL - Oracle
« Reply #80 on: June 19, 2014, 07:44:21 PM »
I bought in about a year ago and it's been a great ride for me.  It gets rough around earnings periods (like today) but your comments about valuation are spot on.  It always amazes me how much a stock will move based upon an earnings miss or beat.

The company "missed" earnings estimates and grew less than expected but they still grew revenues (and earnings if you exclude last year's one off gain). 

I'm happy owning the stock with zero growth and expect none.  This is never going to double over a year but the cash flow returns and shareholder friendly actions of management mean it doesn't have to grow the business to be a great investment - any growth is just gravy at these levels.  I love the stat in every earning release that shows Free Cash Flow has consistently exceeded 125% of earnings. 

I'm sure many will argue that the business is being eaten away by competition and they are a dinosaur and the move to the cloud will be their undoing but I'm happy to sit her and roll around in all that free cash flow and share buybacks.


peter1234

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 614
Re: ORCL - Oracle
« Reply #81 on: June 19, 2014, 11:58:46 PM »
Agreed. Bears might put it in the dinosaur category with something like an IBM.

I think thesis is similar in that it is really really entrenched in companies' infrastructure.

Plus you have the CEO founder creating value for himself and the other shareholders. Have not seen much substance or evidence to Oracle becoming less relevant. Whether Sun was a good buy or not is debatable. I personally much prefer SW over HW.

You see Oracle in a lot of value portfolios.

 ;)

TeddyLampert

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 97
Re: ORCL - Oracle
« Reply #82 on: June 20, 2014, 12:44:01 AM »
It would be great to hear from a real bear to "kill" the stock, to borrow a Berkowitz phrase.

In particular, hard evidence of a permanent decline in ORCL's earnings power due to competition is what I am looking for: evidence of market share loss in the relevant business line where ORCL "makes money" shown on a yearly or quarterly basis (time series, not just a single period's comparison).

 
“I am disappointed that we did not deliver a better result." - Teddy Lampert

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3254
Re: ORCL - Oracle
« Reply #83 on: June 23, 2014, 03:48:44 PM »
It would be great to hear from a real bear to "kill" the stock, to borrow a Berkowitz phrase.

In particular, hard evidence of a permanent decline in ORCL's earnings power due to competition is what I am looking for: evidence of market share loss in the relevant business line where ORCL "makes money" shown on a yearly or quarterly basis (time series, not just a single period's comparison).

The company I work for runs on Oracle. This means that the complete manufacturing operation is mirrored in Oracle transactions. Oracle is simply the financial cardiac system of the companies that use it. It is almost impossible to remove/replace this without leaving the companies operations in chaos. The same is true for SAP implementations.

The issue is that smaller/upcoming companies shying away from these ERP applications and often choosing cloud based solutions, even though those tend to be more "insular", because they are easier and cheaper to implement.

I don't see SAP/Oracle loosing customers as much as not gaining many new ones. FWIW, IBM applications are nowhere near as ingrained as Oracle or SAP ERP software.

I own a few Oracle shares purchased a year ago around 30$. I think it is a way more straightforward value proposition than IBM stock, even at current prices.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2014, 03:50:51 PM by Spekulatius »
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

Phaceliacapital

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1004
Re: ORCL - Oracle
« Reply #84 on: December 18, 2014, 07:31:26 AM »
BN) Oracle Jumps Most in 5 Years as Results Show Cloud Shift Pa yoff

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Oracle Jumps Most in 5 Years as Results Show Cloud Shift Payoff
2014-12-18 15:17:21.357 GMT


By Niamh Ring
     (Bloomberg) -- Oracle Corp. shares rose the most in more than five years as efforts to push deeper into Web-based cloud computing helped fuel fiscal second-quarter profit and sales that surpassed analysts’ estimates.
     The software-maker’s shares soared 8.8 percent to $44.78 at
10:12 a.m., after the company’s earnings report yesterday.
Earlier they traded at $44.98 for the biggest intraday jump since June 2009 and the highest price in more than a decade.
Before today, Oracle had added 7.6 percent this year, compared with a 8.9 percent rise for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
     Profit before certain costs was 69 cents a share in the period that ended Nov. 30 on revenue of $9.6 billion, the Redwood City, California-based company said in a statement yesterday. On average, analysts projected profit of 68 cents and
$9.5 billion in sales, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
     The quarter was the first with Mark Hurd and Safra Catz as chief executive officers, after they took over from founder Larry Ellison three months ago. Oracle has introduced new software delivered over the Internet and acquired companies to win corporate customers, seeking to boost revenue after 13 straight quarters of sales growth of less than 5 percent. Like Adobe Systems Inc. and Microsoft Corp., Oracle is seeking to replace one-time sales of software with ongoing subscriptions.
     “If there’s any hiccup or hint of slippage in operating margin relating to this transition, then the red flag is going to go up” said Dan Morgan, a senior portfolio manager at Synovus Securities Inc., which owns 1.4 million Oracle shares.
     Second-quarter net income fell 2 percent to $2.5 billion, or 56 cents a share, from $2.55 billion, or 56 cents, a year earlier.

                         Revenue Outlook

     For the fiscal third quarter that ends in February, Catz said on a conference call that unusually high volatility in foreign exchange rates could adversely impact revenue by 4 percent and per-share earnings by 4 cents. Based on this, Oracle issued a profit forecast of 65 cents to 70 cents for the current quarter and sales that will be flat to 4 percent higher from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
     Analysts, on average, are predicting profit of 73 cents and sales rising 4 percent to $9.68 billion in the fiscal third quarter.
     In the prior period, new software license sales, an indicator of future revenue, fell 3.6 percent to $2.05 billion, Oracle said.
     “I think folks will look past that if they see meaningful traction on the cloud initiatives,” said Bill Kreher, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. who has a buy rating on the stock.
     In the hardware division, which bolsters Oracle’s software and support sales, revenue was rose slightly at $1.33 billion.

                         Cloud Business

     Combined sales in Oracle’s cloud software, platform and infrastructure businesses were $516 million, up 45 percent from a year earlier. The company started disclosing cloud revenue two quarters ago.
     “The stock is trading on that cloud growth,” Morgan said.
     Analysts and money managers are looking at the performance of Oracle’s cloud products to gauge the company’s ability to change its core businesses to compete with Salesforce, Workday Inc., Amazon.com Inc.’s Web services unit and other cloud- computing providers. Oracle spent more than $50 billion to acquire about 100 companies in the past decade to bolster its core businesses of database, hardware and business-applications, and help it gain share in the cloud.
     Oracle is on track to sell more than $1 billion of new cloud subscriptions next fiscal year, Ellison said on a conference call. The company is also catching up to Salesforce in new cloud subscriptions, said Ellison, who is now Oracle’s chairman and chief technology officer.
     “Stay tuned, it’s going to be close,” Ellison said.
“We’re catching up to them, and catching up very quickly.”
The harder you work, the luckier you get.

dabuff

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 108
    • Lattice Investing
Re: ORCL - Oracle
« Reply #85 on: May 25, 2015, 08:54:11 PM »
There's been a lot of recent guru selling on this one - Lou Simpson sold out 8.7% of his stake last quarter. Any other bears care to comment?
latticeinvesting.blogspot.com

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11443
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

oddballstocks

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2246
    • Oddball Stocks Blog
Re: ORCL - Oracle
« Reply #87 on: August 01, 2018, 12:17:54 PM »
There's been a lot of recent guru selling on this one - Lou Simpson sold out 8.7% of his stake last quarter. Any other bears care to comment?

Every company that can get away from Oracle is trying to figure out a way to leave.


Bullish is their extortion of Java coming up next year... they'll milk that until the language is dead.  If you use Java for any business reason you're supposed to license every CPU and core in your computer at $5k per CPU.  Expect more litigation on that as well.
The ultimate edge for bank investors: http://www.completebankdata.com

vince

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 433
Re: ORCL - Oracle
« Reply #88 on: September 01, 2019, 05:28:31 PM »
It would be great to hear from a real bear to "kill" the stock, to borrow a Berkowitz phrase.

In particular, hard evidence of a permanent decline in ORCL's earnings power due to competition is what I am looking for: evidence of market share loss in the relevant business line where ORCL "makes money" shown on a yearly or quarterly basis (time series, not just a single period's comparison).

The company I work for runs on Oracle. This means that the complete manufacturing operation is mirrored in Oracle transactions. Oracle is simply the financial cardiac system of the companies that use it. It is almost impossible to remove/replace this without leaving the companies operations in chaos. The same is true for SAP implementations.

The issue is that smaller/upcoming companies shying away from these ERP applications and often choosing cloud based solutions, even though those tend to be more "insular", because they are easier and cheaper to implement.

I don't see SAP/Oracle loosing customers as much as not gaining many new ones. FWIW, IBM applications are nowhere near as ingrained as Oracle or SAP ERP software.

I own a few Oracle shares purchased a year ago around 30$. I think it is a way more straightforward value proposition than IBM stock, even at current prices.

I'm a few years behind in my reply, was just trying to read some older posts on oracle......but just wanted to say that this is an excellent post, and maybe some oracle experts will resume posting about them.

LC

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3634
Re: ORCL - Oracle
« Reply #89 on: September 01, 2019, 08:05:30 PM »
I am only speaking to the digital marketing side here: Oracle is losing on the fringes. Their ODC/OMC is a substandard suite compared to Adobe's or Salesforce.

Look at the share price movement between Oracle and Adobe over the past 2+ years and you can see where the value has been created.

Now, I am not saying you can't make money with Oracle or can't lose money with Adobe, I am just saying the product suite for the marginal digital marketer is far superior with Adobe.

Oracle's ODC/OMC is mismanaged and if you think Uncle Larry is sitting in the board room diving into detail on this, you are wrong.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
brk.b | irm | mmm | mo | nlsn | pm | pypl | tap | v | wm