Author Topic: OSTK - Overstock.com  (Read 142949 times)

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #80 on: March 07, 2012, 07:16:26 AM »
SI data is somewhat of a lagging indicator, but one must presume that even if March 1st shows a decrease to the current eye popping numbers representative of the "buy ins" which took place on the day before the earnings report which was March 1st--probably not by coincidence--they would have been shorting more since the day of the report, March 2nd, leading up to now.

As of 2/15/12, with more than 12 percent of the outstanding shares shorted and 23 days of "avg. share volume" to cover, never mind the more narrow "share float" much higher percentage being shorted, while contemplating a real time increase as I write, you can imagine the KABOOM moment that is coming fast at these MOLES.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ostk/short-interest

What's funny for me, is they must be point guarding for Amazon because besides attempting to disparage and kill a positive free cash flow enterprise with virtually NO DEBT, why wouldn't Amazon be a buyer of one of their competitors at this ridiculous price?     

 
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 07:24:46 AM by ValueCarl »


Hester

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #81 on: March 07, 2012, 07:18:59 AM »
Peter Burke, my reply was directed at "Hellsten."

Hester

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #82 on: March 07, 2012, 07:41:01 AM »

When it comes to Chou's investment in Overstock readers here should consider the following.
The USDCAD moved as much as 26% from 2009-2011 which distorts CAD reported numbers in a meaningful way. 
The bonds traded down to the low 60's (might even been into the mid fifties) in USD and with someone like Chou I would assume he bought closer to the lows than the highs. These bonds were called at par according to an earlier post. Yet in CAD the returns could look up to 26% weaker.

This is a heavily shorted stock and these guys have to borrow from somewhere and I think it was mentioned on this board that the OSTK rates ranges/ed from 25%-30%. When lending out your stock you get paid that rate on market value, so if you bought say at $15 and the stock increases to $20 you can earn up to 40% on your stock.

Covered calls?? OSTK stock offered some great covered call returns.

I think the probability is high that Chou would have captured some of that value; let me rephrase that...a lot of that value.

Lastly, if you were borrowing at those rates then you would be squealing too and I certainly hear a lot of squealing. However, with all the noise on this board it is hard to know who exactly it is I'm hearing.

You have very bad data. As of right now, Interactive Brokers has the HTB fee on OSTK at a little over 1% annually. So I don't know where you're coming up with 25-30%. Maybe that was true during the height of the Sith Lord frenzy in the middle of the last decade, but now, one can borrow Overstock almost for free.

I highly doubt Chou was able to really profit much off of the shorting fees. First of all, like I said the fees have been low for a while. Second, taking advantage of the high short interest would mean he would have to be approached by a short seller or (more likely) his broker, and choose to lend out his shares to the evil miscreants on the other side. Likely those asking for inventory would be the same people being sued by Overstock  ;D. Highly Unlikely Chou profited much my view.

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #83 on: March 07, 2012, 08:50:39 AM »
Under normal situations where enterprises are aligning their costs, especially labor, with the business market conditions taking place, Wall Street cheers jubilantly over such news.

Not these "serial killers" they have hired to destroy value and rob from society, however. I have once suggested that Wall Street and their minion should be required to adhere to some form of the medical field's "Hippocratic Oath" but that's not something these degenerate criminals would allow to happen, just as it's not "legal" to insure or guarantee profits when they lose other peoples money, and garner fees for winning, losing or going nowhere. What other business under the stars can GARNER income and fees for destroying value with no accountability during the process? This is an institution that needs to be GUTTED! 

It seems odd, quite bizarre actually, that Weiss' blog does not allow comments or I would rip him a new one, not that the criminals he works with care, however.  >:(         

MrB

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #84 on: March 07, 2012, 08:59:17 AM »
You have very bad data. As of right now, Interactive Brokers has the HTB fee on OSTK at a little over 1% annually. So I don't know where you're coming up with 25-30%. Maybe that was true during the height of the Sith Lord frenzy in the middle of the last decade, but now, one can borrow Overstock almost for free.

I highly doubt Chou was able to really profit much off of the shorting fees. First of all, like I said the fees have been low for a while. Second, taking advantage of the high short interest would mean he would have to be approached by a short seller or (more likely) his broker, and choose to lend out his shares to the evil miscreants on the other side. Likely those asking for inventory would be the same people being sued by Overstock  ;D. Highly Unlikely Chou profited much my view.

Agh, my mistake. Chou is the kind of guy that misses the 30% and hits the 1%. LOL By the way. I think these days Chou gets the calls rather than make them.   

a great defense of a lousy stock pick.

The point is that the cost/return data might be off. Defense ???

Parsad

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #85 on: March 07, 2012, 12:13:35 PM »
You've only got about 30% float on the outstanding shares and over 35% of that is shorted.  In other words, on any positive news or a share buyback, the shorts are going to get the shit squeezed out of them.  When the shorts were targeting Fairfax, you had about 55% float and about 20% of that was shorted at the peak. 

If Byrne cuts legal by $10-12M, cuts across the board payroll and other expenses to get the $8.5M he quoted in the presentation, and if revenues get back over $1.1B, they should be able to earn about $18-20M after tax (since they will barely pay any tax for the next 5-7 years).  That's about 6 times earnings, for a business that should be able to grow at 10-15% a year.  Cheers!
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tombgrt

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #86 on: March 07, 2012, 12:33:44 PM »
$5.15

Guess I have some new work to do!

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #87 on: March 07, 2012, 12:50:42 PM »
Like BAC, knowing the fear induced from things including delisting notices as well as institutional sales that THE CABAL is spearheading, MENS' CONVICTIONS will be TESTED at that $5 LINE of DEMARCATION.

Sanjeev, get the TRUCKS ready!       
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 12:57:26 PM by ValueCarl »

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #88 on: March 07, 2012, 01:20:30 PM »
A MAN without CONVICTION, is no MAN at all.

Call Sam, and tell him I AM, a MAN with CONVICTION and not a "CONVICTED FELON."

While you're at it, call the authorities and demand that they watch the "back office" trading of this stock which will continue to be exposed to every DIRTY TRICK, legal and illegal, in or outside the book already created, or the one soon to be created so they might have their way.  >:( 

Hester

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #89 on: March 07, 2012, 01:55:10 PM »
You've only got about 30% float on the outstanding shares and over 35% of that is shorted.  In other words, on any positive news or a share buyback, the shorts are going to get the shit squeezed out of them.  When the shorts were targeting Fairfax, you had about 55% float and about 20% of that was shorted at the peak. 

If Byrne cuts legal by $10-12M, cuts across the board payroll and other expenses to get the $8.5M he quoted in the presentation, and if revenues get back over $1.1B, they should be able to earn about $18-20M after tax (since they will barely pay any tax for the next 5-7 years).  That's about 6 times earnings, for a business that should be able to grow at 10-15% a year.  Cheers!

I'm sure there will be at least a little short squeeze at some point in the next few years, as there has been in the past (followed by violent falls), but this company has had pretty much a permanent high short interest since the crazy Sith Lord Conference Call. Overstock shares are very liquid given the company's current market cap. Like I said, the cost to borrow is basically one percent. In the massive short squeezes you see, like SHLD this year for example, the cost to borrow is usually at least 20%. I think Sears was like 40 or 50 percent (don't quote me on that though).

People have been saying this business should be able to grow at 10-15% a year for a very long time. I was reading old articles on OSTK this weekend just for fun, and almost everybody had modeled OSTK's revenue over $1.5 billion by the end of last decade. The VIC writeup in March 2006 had a "conservative" growth scenario of $1.7 billion in revenue by 2009 and an "optimistic" scenario of $2.2 billion.

The problem is Patrick Byrne. If he got lost, or moved to China and started a new company and did an RTO or something, I would probably invest in Overstock at these levels. In fact, I would bet money that they would be a $500 million market cap within 5 years. But until the CEO stops spending so much time using Overstock as his personal jumping board for his eccentric conspiracies, Overstock will never consistently grow anywhere near 10-15% and will be a terminal short.

disclosure: no positions
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 01:58:06 PM by Hester »