Author Topic: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group  (Read 3374 times)

Sergio8

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Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2019, 05:18:29 AM »
New insider buy by CFO Blaine Karst: 4000 shares at 4.85 CAD.


Sergio8

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Re: ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group
« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2019, 07:46:08 AM »
Q1 numbers are out and can be accessed here: http://orcaexploration.com/pdfs/2019-Orca-Q1-FULL.pdf

These numbers are fully in line with my estimates and tend to validate the thesis as:

1) Cash and equivalents (including $ 3.97 Mil USD of investment in Swala) increased meaningfully and reached $ 145,5 Mil USD, representing $ 4,12 USD / $ 5,56 CAD per share

2) Although Orca still provisions $ 58,5 Mil USD for Tanesco receivables, Tanesco keeps paying its bills despite increasing amounts: Subsequent to March 31, 2019 the Company has invoiced TANESCO $5.6 million for April 2019 gas deliveries and TANESCO has paid the Company $9.2 million

3) CFO (before interest payments) stood at $ 13,5 Mil USD in Q1 with contained capex.

My net asset value estimates are thus unchanged.

Next catalysts may be:

- Continued increase in sales and cash-flows (very likely)

- A quarterly dividend announcement (very likely)

- A good acquisition (if available)

- An extension of the Songo Songo license (we don't count on it, but it is possible as gas deliveries need to increase in Tanzania and PAET is the best operator there)

- Normal Course Issuer Bid (to be discussed by the Board on investors' request, though the Board would prefer to increase liquidity in the stock)

- A sale of the Tanzanian business (we don't count on it, but there have been interested parties in the past).