Author Topic: OSTK - Overstock.com  (Read 134598 times)

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #390 on: November 28, 2018, 02:09:25 PM »
Just a FYI that if you try to meaningfully engage with Marc Cohodes (probably the single most vocal and prominent OSTK bull) about some of his claims he will Twitter block you, just like he did me. You specifically should avoid asking him about how the failed GSR-Nissan deal and the alleged criminal actions of Carlos Ghosn could conceivably be connected.

Hilariously, GSR's most recent press release on its website is still the initial release announcing the Nissan deal. Did their webmaster retire?

http://www.gsrcapital.com/en/news.php#gywm

Has Overstock received a single $1 of funding from GSR yet?


Sportgamma

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #391 on: December 17, 2018, 06:51:26 AM »
https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+8-K+OVERSTOCK.COM%2C+INC+For%3A+Dec+16/14928179.html

Dear Shareholders,

I write to lay out for you the status of our stock purchase transaction with GSR and our progress with GSR as a strategic partner. GSR Capital did not close the GSR Stock purchase transaction nor enter definitive agreements on December 15, 2018 as GSR had stipulated in its August 5, 2018 term sheets with Overstock and tZERO. GSRs leadership has informed me that GSR still intends to close this deal and is committed to this transaction and our partnership. GSR leadership tells me a key partner from outside of China needed more time to participate in the deal. Given the four-month period from when our initial term sheets were signed with GSR, I am, of course, as disappointed as any shareholder. Although it is uncertain whether the transaction with GSR will close at the same amounts we previously disclosed or at all, we have granted GSR an extension, at its request, until February 28, 2019 to close the transaction. We will continue to work with GSR in good faith during this extension because we value the work they have done and the potential of our partnership.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #392 on: December 17, 2018, 08:38:43 AM »
jet.com had close to $1Bil of revenues when Walmart bought it for $3.3Bil.

Could a case be made that, seeing as Overstock has over $1.6Bil. of revenues, even the retail side alone is worth a bundle to a third party buyer?

I believe the current total market cap is slightly over $2.2 Bil.

Comparing revenues isn't enough. How fast are those respectively growing? What kind of ROIC are they getting on the growth investments, what kind of margins could they get at a stable rate?

+1!  We thought Overstock was worth around $35-$40 or 0.5 times revenue conservatively.  It's now fully-priced by the markets...forget about conservatively...and what you've been seeing is more of a mania around any blockchain potential. 

That being said, stupid money does very stupid things, and I would not be surprised to see this thing hit $130-150 per share in 2018.  It has propelled from a value-stock into something almost purely speculative now.  Remember Overstock was an $80/share stock 16 years ago, and that was based on internet mania...we saw what happened over the ensuing years. 

We've sold about 2/3rds of our position (bought at an average cost of about $14.50) starting at $35 all the way up to just under $86 today.  Don't want to take any more short-term gains, but the speculation is just on a tear!

Cheers!

At your average cost again today.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #393 on: December 17, 2018, 10:30:33 AM »
Would Patrick have left his job to chase gold in 1849?

He left a boring Berkshire subsidiary to found an exciting .com retailer when .com was hot.

Now he is straying from online retail to exciting blockchain when that is hot.

Am I being unfair? 

The stock crash has led me to think about him more critically, it's human nature.

He deflected and used the naked shorts for a long time?  Now that case is closed and soon afterwards he is throwing in the towel?

For all the talk of how much Overstock is a compounding machine (it's in the thread if you read it), you'd have 4x your money in Berkshire stock over the past 15 years.  Not the case in this stock unless you traded on the surges. 

Rumor may be getting around Wall Street that nobody wants it at his price?  Or they do, but that rumor is circulating anyhow?





ERICOPOLY

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #394 on: December 17, 2018, 10:37:27 AM »
I think his eccentricity is a marker for something in his psychological makeup.

Sportgamma

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #395 on: December 17, 2018, 11:56:17 AM »
I think his eccentricity is a marker for something in his psychological makeup.

His behaviour does make him a candidate for a blowup, no denying that. But having an appetite for risk isn't necessarily a bad thing. There are, however, plenty of other things that not only cast a dark shadow on his character but make you think he could be genuinely bonkers.

Nonetheless, I am long Overstock. The way I see it, OSTK is more akin to an option. I have no opinion on Medici, which could very well be heading t'Zero. I do think that there is reason to belive that the value of the overstock.com retail business is being overlooked by the market. I know Byrne has hinted at selling before without anything materializing and that could very well be the case this time around. I have patience until March or thereabouts. If nothing has happened by the end of March, I will cut my losses.

I have a feeling (and this is no more than a feeling), that the bigger retailers have begun to view online in a different way. As opposed to trying to build some sort of extensions to themselves, they now see online business as unique sales funnels which they can add value to elsewhere in the value chain. Wallmart, as an example, has been acquiring online businesses that don't seem that straightforward. Who would have thought that they would acquire Bonobos or art.com?

The retail business went through a certain stress test it took a big hit to their SEO. Anybody who does online commerce will understand the seriousness of what happened. They seem to have solved it now and there seems to be an uptick in site visits again.



ERICOPOLY

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #396 on: December 17, 2018, 12:02:41 PM »
There are, however, plenty of other things that not only cast a dark shadow on his character but make you think he could be genuinely bonkers.

Like this? 

The blockchain revolution has a greater potential than anything weve seen in history, Byrne told Fox Business on Nov. 26 (video below). Its bigger than the Internet revolution, how its going to restructure society.

Does the guy in the bitcoin tie and matching socks look crazy?

https://www.ccn.com/blockchain-revolution-is-bigger-than-anything-weve-seen-in-history-overstock-ceo/



Sportgamma

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #397 on: December 17, 2018, 12:14:28 PM »
There are, however, plenty of other things that not only cast a dark shadow on his character but make you think he could be genuinely bonkers.

Like this? 

The blockchain revolution has a greater potential than anything weve seen in history, Byrne told Fox Business on Nov. 26 (video below). Its bigger than the Internet revolution, how its going to restructure society.

Does the guy in the bitcoin tie and matching socks look crazy?

https://www.ccn.com/blockchain-revolution-is-bigger-than-anything-weve-seen-in-history-overstock-ceo/

How about this:

"Patrick was traveling and packed a bag that he hadn't used in quite some time," said Overstock President Jonathan Johnson. "He didn't realize that he had left a gun in the bag."
https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865570958/Overstock-CEO-arrested-for-having-gun-in-luggage-airport-police-say.html

or this:
https://www.businessinsider.com/heres-how-overstocks-patrick-byrne-got-the-list-of-all-my-friends-and-family-2009-12?r=US&IR=T

rkbabang

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #398 on: December 17, 2018, 12:41:29 PM »
OK the last one about fake FB profiles to collect info is crazy.  But I think he is right about blockchain (or he will be right in the long run) and the gun in the bag looked to me like an honest mistake.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #399 on: December 17, 2018, 04:49:16 PM »
OK the last one about fake FB profiles to collect info is crazy.  But I think he is right about blockchain (or he will be right in the long run) and the gun in the bag looked to me like an honest mistake.

There are a lot of companies with blockchain investments.  Here are four:

Amazon, Microsoft, Google, IBM

https://aws.amazon.com/blockchain/
https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/solutions/blockchain/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-21/google-is-said-to-work-on-its-own-blockchain-related-technology
https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/19/ibm-unveils-blockchain-as-a-service-based-on-open-source-hyperledger-fabric-technology/