Author Topic: OSTK - Overstock.com  (Read 139565 times)

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #70 on: March 05, 2012, 02:07:14 PM »
Wouldn't it be a hoot if that soon to be announced retail "Marketing Executive" ends up coming from Amazon?  :-X


hellsten

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #71 on: March 06, 2012, 02:08:30 AM »
Looking at Francis Chou's holdings it's clear that he's very confident in Overstock's future. FYI, I'm including the Chou funds' investment strategy:
Quote
The investment process followed in selecting equity investments for the Funds is a value-oriented approach to investing. This involves a detailed analysis of the strengths of individual companies, with much less emphasis on short-term market factors. Far greater importance is placed upon an assessment of a company's balance sheet, cash flow characteristics, profitability, industry position, special strengths, future growth potential and management ability

The level of investments in the company’s securities is generally commensurate with the current price of the company’s securities in relation to its intrinsic value as determined by the above factors.

Here's what I found when looking at the semi-annual report from 2011, correct me if I'm wrong:

CHOU ASSOCIATES FUND - JUNE 30, 2011

Overstock was 7.8% of total cost, which is about the same size as BRK.A, AbitibiBowater Inc and BAC-WTA.

Overstock.com Inc.
Shares: 1,504,209     
Cost: $ 31,016,174 
Value: $ 22,077,843

PORTFOLIO TOTAL:
Cost: $ 397,437,904
Value: $ 403,318,649

CHOU RRSP FUND - JUNE 30, 2011

Overstock was 12.5% of total cost, which 4 times more than BRK.A.

Overstock.com Inc.
Shares: 715,500
Cost: $ 14,906,146       
Value: $ 10,501,66

PORTFOLIO TOTAL:
Cost: $  119,483,556
Value: $  122,005,47

Other interesting findings:

JUNE 30, 2008:
The Chou Associates and RRSP funds had $ 788 800 (410 384+378,416) in Jan 2009 call options with a strike price between $ 40.00-45.00. I'm not sure what to make out of this, but I guess Chou thought OSTK could be at $40-45 in Jan, 2009.

JUNE 30, 2010:
the Chou Bond fund had 5% in "Overstock.com Inc., 3.75%". 3.75% seems pretty low…

References:
http://www.choufunds.com/index.html
http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/SemiAR11.pdf
http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/SA10%20pdf.pdf
http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/SA08.pdf

By the way, Torstar Corporation is almost 23% of the RRSP fund's total costs. Torstar is something I have to look into:
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/financials.php?qm_symbol=TS.B

hellsten

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #72 on: March 06, 2012, 02:51:30 AM »
If the Chou funds' total cost for OSTK was $45 922 320 in June 30, 2011 then Francis has increased his holdings by 19.1%.

According to Insider Monkey, Francis Chou has been buying Overstock for a total of $8 772 384.70 starting July 2011:
http://www.insidermonkey.com/insider-trading/company/overstockcom+inc/1130713/purchases/

Who do you think is correct, Sam E. Antar and the media in general, or Francis Chou and Patrick Byrne?

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #73 on: March 06, 2012, 05:44:44 AM »
Speaking of Sam Antar and the media, this OVERSTOCK DEATH MARCH will continue unabated pointing to Byrne as a woman hater now, it seems with Goldman traders and Bethany McClean references for proof........

http://dagblog.com/business/rush-limbaugh-overstockcom-s-patrick-byrne-misogynists-getting-their-due-13235

The recent report came as a surprise to analysts. Via Reuters:
Analysts, on average, had expected the company to earn 45 cents a share, on revenue of $377.6 million.
One wonders who these analysts are. For those that have kept their eyes on Byrne – a donor to the Swiftboat attacks on John Kerry and a fierce supporter of a failed school voucher initiative in Utah – this collapse of his company has been easy to predict for some time now. And it appears no matter how hard he tries to libel & slander business journalists  (he’s currently being sued for libel in Canada), his company will pay the ultimate price for his mismanagement.
–WKW

Let's review some history in order to capture the essence of how Death March's work including decapitations. It's a damn good thing that the Fighting Irishman, Dr. Byrne, is heading straight for St. Patrick's Day, with a Lucky Leprechaun nearby! BYRNE em, baby!       

http://www.bataansurvivor.com/content/the_bataan_death_march/1.php

Parsad

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #74 on: March 06, 2012, 11:40:02 AM »
If the Chou funds' total cost for OSTK was $45 922 320 in June 30, 2011 then Francis has increased his holdings by 19.1%.

According to Insider Monkey, Francis Chou has been buying Overstock for a total of $8 772 384.70 starting July 2011:
http://www.insidermonkey.com/insider-trading/company/overstockcom+inc/1130713/purchases/

Who do you think is correct, Sam E. Antar and the media in general, or Francis Chou and Patrick Byrne?

It isn't Sam, although I think Patrick is now being forced to realize that they have to keep a tighter rein on costs.  You can't just expect blow-out growth in such a competitive market, unless you have a killer product.  They don't! 

What they are is in the online retail business, which could be very nicely profitable and growing over the long-term.  But like any business, it isn't going to be worth anything if it isn't making money.  They needed to cut costs and they need to focus on the business, not the lawsuit.  I think they may have come to that realization after the case was dismissed and they had this really shitty year!  Cheers! 
No man is a failure who has friends!

valuecfa

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #75 on: March 06, 2012, 06:13:00 PM »
Just listened to the call...i see Sanjeev was mentioned by Patrick.

I agree it is time for Patrick to step down and let someone with more vision/experience in website and retail development to take this company to the next level (consistent profitability).

Hester

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #76 on: March 06, 2012, 08:23:23 PM »
If the Chou funds' total cost for OSTK was $45 922 320 in June 30, 2011 then Francis has increased his holdings by 19.1%.

According to Insider Monkey, Francis Chou has been buying Overstock for a total of $8 772 384.70 starting July 2011:
http://www.insidermonkey.com/insider-trading/company/overstockcom+inc/1130713/purchases/

Who do you think is correct, Sam E. Antar and the media in general, or Francis Chou and Patrick Byrne?

how could Patrick Byrne be "correct" when over the last five years he has been CEO the stock has gone from $17 to $5.

Antar started blogging about Overstock in very early 2007, check his blog. At the very end of 2006, Overstock was Francis Chou's biggest equity position. http://seekingalpha.com/article/33224-francis-chou-s-biggest-bet-overstock-com

So they've both been voicing their opinion concurrently (in much different ways obviously) about Overstock for over five years now. Needless to say, one has been very correct and the other very incorrect so far. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=OSTK+Interactive#symbol=ostk;range=20070105,20120306;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

But then again, it doesn't matter what Chou or Antar think about Overstock. What only matters are the facts, not lame appeals to authority.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2012, 08:24:56 PM by Hester »

Parsad

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #77 on: March 06, 2012, 10:10:06 PM »
Are you two actually arguing with each other because you agree on the same thing?   ;D  What's the matter with you both! 

By the way, if any of you are still shorting Overstock, I think it may be a big mistake.  Cheers!
No man is a failure who has friends!

MrB

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #78 on: March 07, 2012, 01:17:37 AM »
Looking at Francis Chou's holdings it's clear that he's very confident in Overstock's future. FYI, I'm including the Chou funds' investment strategy:
Quote
The investment process followed in selecting equity investments for the Funds is a value-oriented approach to investing. This involves a detailed analysis of the strengths of individual companies, with much less emphasis on short-term market factors. Far greater importance is placed upon an assessment of a company's balance sheet, cash flow characteristics, profitability, industry position, special strengths, future growth potential and management ability

The level of investments in the company’s securities is generally commensurate with the current price of the company’s securities in relation to its intrinsic value as determined by the above factors.

Here's what I found when looking at the semi-annual report from 2011, correct me if I'm wrong:

CHOU ASSOCIATES FUND - JUNE 30, 2011

Overstock was 7.8% of total cost, which is about the same size as BRK.A, AbitibiBowater Inc and BAC-WTA.

Overstock.com Inc.
Shares: 1,504,209     
Cost: $ 31,016,174 
Value: $ 22,077,843

PORTFOLIO TOTAL:
Cost: $ 397,437,904
Value: $ 403,318,649

CHOU RRSP FUND - JUNE 30, 2011

Overstock was 12.5% of total cost, which 4 times more than BRK.A.

Overstock.com Inc.
Shares: 715,500
Cost: $ 14,906,146       
Value: $ 10,501,66

PORTFOLIO TOTAL:
Cost: $  119,483,556
Value: $  122,005,47

Other interesting findings:

JUNE 30, 2008:
The Chou Associates and RRSP funds had $ 788 800 (410 384+378,416) in Jan 2009 call options with a strike price between $ 40.00-45.00. I'm not sure what to make out of this, but I guess Chou thought OSTK could be at $40-45 in Jan, 2009.

JUNE 30, 2010:
the Chou Bond fund had 5% in "Overstock.com Inc., 3.75%". 3.75% seems pretty low…

References:
http://www.choufunds.com/index.html
http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/SemiAR11.pdf
http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/SA10%20pdf.pdf
http://www.choufunds.com/pdf/SA08.pdf

By the way, Torstar Corporation is almost 23% of the RRSP fund's total costs. Torstar is something I have to look into:
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/financials.php?qm_symbol=TS.B


When it comes to Chou's investment in Overstock readers here should consider the following.
The USDCAD moved as much as 26% from 2009-2011 which distorts CAD reported numbers in a meaningful way. 
The bonds traded down to the low 60's (might even been into the mid fifties) in USD and with someone like Chou I would assume he bought closer to the lows than the highs. These bonds were called at par according to an earlier post. Yet in CAD the returns could look up to 26% weaker.

This is a heavily shorted stock and these guys have to borrow from somewhere and I think it was mentioned on this board that the OSTK rates ranges/ed from 25%-30%. When lending out your stock you get paid that rate on market value, so if you bought say at $15 and the stock increases to $20 you can earn up to 40% on your stock.

Covered calls?? OSTK stock offered some great covered call returns.

I think the probability is high that Chou would have captured some of that value; let me rephrase that...a lot of that value.

Lastly, if you were borrowing at those rates then you would be squealing too and I certainly hear a lot of squealing. However, with all the noise on this board it is hard to know who exactly it is I'm hearing.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 01:21:31 AM by MrB »

ValueCarl

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #79 on: March 07, 2012, 06:48:32 AM »
Sam Antar's evil twin, Gary Weiss, steps up to the plate in order to Whack a Mole! So the beat goes on.........

http://seekingalpha.com/article/416791-the-case-of-the-200-missing-overstock-com-employees