Author Topic: OSTK - Overstock.com  (Read 142950 times)

Parsad

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #200 on: July 19, 2012, 04:12:26 PM »
yea, i go way back with overstock. as more of a buy & holder than a trader i've got what can be charitably called a checkered history with ostk as an investment over the yrs.

patrick may be a dr of philosopy with a major in the taoist/buddhist disciplines but at heart he's a very emotional, gut-feel, shoot from the hip kind of guy. when he's had a good qtr or 2 of favorable comps & the wind at his back he tends to go off the rails & swing for the fences, eschewing the smaller, more measured incremental gains that take deeper root in more fertile ground & sow the seeds for future solid compounded growth.
that said, i seem to have a soft spot in my heart (as well in my head!) for the the good dr & ostk, and am a perennial fan, always richer in hope & poorer in  pocket for my foibles.


That's about as good as anyone can explain Overstock and Byrne!  Brilliant.  Cheers!
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dcollon

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #201 on: August 04, 2012, 07:22:04 AM »
The Naked Truth?  See attached from Barrons

hellsten

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #202 on: August 04, 2012, 02:39:34 PM »
Thanks for posting. Gary Weiss has always had a lot to say about Overstock. To me all he writes is FUD. This article is no different. This quote from Arthur Conan Doyle gives you a clue of what I think of Gary's article:
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I consider that a man's brain originally is like a little empty attic, and you have to stock it with such furniture as you choose. A fool takes in all the lumber of every sort that he comes across, so that the knowledge which might be useful to him gets crowded out, or at best is jumbled up with a lot of other things, so that he has a difficulty in laying his hands upon it. Now the skillful workman is very careful indeed as to what he takes into his brain-attic. He will have nothing but the tools which may help him in doing his work, but of these he has a large assortment, and all in the most perfect order. It is a mistake to think that that little room has elastic walls and can distend to any extent. Depend upon it there comes a time when for every addition of knowledge you forget something that you knew before. It is of the highest importance, therefore, not to have useless facts elbowing out the useful ones.

Perhaps I'm biased, like Gary. Either way, what Gary writes is FUD sprinkled with empty words:
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A further price decline would aid Overstock's adversaries

Overstock is up 70% from its lows.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2012, 06:41:30 AM by hellsten »

hellsten

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #203 on: August 10, 2012, 06:39:55 AM »
Short interest is rising fast. Faster than the stock :o

30-50 days to cover:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ostk/short-interest

Wonder why. The latest news from OSTK has been positive.

Parsad

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #204 on: August 10, 2012, 10:35:50 AM »
Short interest is rising fast. Faster than the stock :o

30-50 days to cover:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ostk/short-interest

Wonder why. The latest news from OSTK has been positive.

Have no clue where these shares are coming from.  That's pretty much 45% of the available float.  If they have a profitable 3rd quarter, which looks very likely, the shorts are going to get the crap squeezed out of them, as the 4th quarter is usually profitable.  An entire year of profits at Overstock would certainly kill alot of arguments around the business' viability.  Cheers!
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lessthaniv

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #205 on: August 10, 2012, 11:52:50 AM »
no wonder shareholders were asking for certs.
<IV

hellsten

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #206 on: August 16, 2012, 01:02:14 PM »
http://redeye.firstround.com/2010/03/some-more-thoughts-on-innovation-in-ecommerce.html:
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…of the top 15 most trafficked eCommerce websites today, just one of them did not exist back in 1999 (NewEgg - which launched in 2001).  Which means that over 90% of the top eCommerce websites are over 12 years old!  That is pretty remarkable to me -- and reflects an amazing lack of external innovation (and disruption).   

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if you compare today's top 15 list of eCommerce websites to this list from 2005, you'll see it's almost identical.  So not only have almost all the top eCommerce sites existed for 12 years -- there has been virtually no dislocation among the leaders.

Via http://cdixon.org/2012/08/15/e-commerce-startups/

ERICOPOLY

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #207 on: August 16, 2012, 04:09:54 PM »
Here is where the shares are coming from (without naked short selling thrown in):

a shareholder is "long" and his broker lends the share to short #1
the valid share is sold by short #1 and delivered to a new long shareholder
the new long shareholder gets the share delivered and his broker lends it to short #2
short #2 sells it and it is delivered to a new long shareholder
the new long shareholder gets the share delivered and his broker lends it to short #3
short #3 sells it and it gets delivered to a new long shareholder.
the new long shareholder gets the share delivered and his broker lends it to short #4
etc...
etc...
etc...

Liberty

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #208 on: August 16, 2012, 04:16:10 PM »
Here is where the shares are coming from (without naked short selling thrown in):

a shareholder is "long" and his broker lends the share to short #1
the valid share is sold by short #1 and delivered to a new long shareholder
the new long shareholder gets the share delivered and his broker lends it to short #2
short #2 sells it and it is delivered to a new long shareholder
the new long shareholder gets the share delivered and his broker lends it to short #3
short #3 sells it and it gets delivered to a new long shareholder.
the new long shareholder gets the share delivered and his broker lends it to short #4
etc...
etc...
etc...

Interesting. It's the first time I think about it this way... So there's no limits to how many times the same share can be recycled? In theory, couldn't you have more shares sold short than the entire number of outstanding shares? Kind of crazy.
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hellsten

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Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Reply #209 on: September 25, 2012, 07:25:26 AM »
"Desperate Measures At Overstock.com" by BO'hara:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/885201-desperate-measures-at-overstock-com

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Patrick Byrne, Overstock's CEO, is a fisherman lost at sea and dying of thirst. He has tried every survival trick in the book, but he has reached the end of his rope.

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As one of what appears to be hundreds of vendors buried deep within Sears.com, how is Overstock going to derive significant revenues from this relationship? Well, Sears.com does a lot of business, and some of it will trickle down to Overstock. How much? Your guess is as good as mine, but management is rumored to be talking up "six or seven figures" in revenue from this relationship.

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If Overstock's dramatic share price appreciation has anything to do with its Sears partnership (or speculation about other partners) it is a fairly large misread by the market. The market is overestimating the returns this business can bring while failing to recognize the risks inherent in the new strategy. The market also seems to be ignoring the declining popularity of Overstock's web site. Overstock is throwing in the towel on its brand which will ultimately have investors throwing in the towel on its stock.

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Another theory regarding OSTK's rapid ascent has to do with the fact that the company isn't collecting sales taxes from customers in many of the states where Amazon and others are being forced to do so. I don't think this is a big factor.

This is his second article, both have been about OSTK. He's followed by Sam Antar on Seeking Alpha…

Maybe the real reason behind the 100% rise in OSTK's share price is a short squeeze?
« Last Edit: September 25, 2012, 07:27:30 AM by hellsten »