Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 490596 times)

rkbabang

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2430 on: October 19, 2018, 10:20:57 AM »
My wife drives our Sequoia around town, and that could be as an EV.

But I mostly drive long road trips.  I work from home.  We do a longer trip at least once if not twice a month, and the other weekends we'll drive an hour or two go to hike.

Liberty, to your point with kids.  It's what your expectations are.  We drive long periods with the kids, doing 4hr straight isn't an issue (I have four boys, 8, 6, 3, 1.5) and they do fine.  We drive longer to VA, FL and will make minimum stops. On longer 15h trips we pull into fuel, and have a little shift thing so we can get everyone in and out of the bathroom before we're done fueling. We rush them, and that's just what life is.  I'm sure I'm in some weird 1% group, eh, whatever.

Ultimately I think the best solution is probably the EV with a small gas engine. The drivetrain is all electric but a small gas engine powers the battery.  I mean if I had an EV truck I could always toss my Honda 2000eu generator in the bed, and run an extension cord.  It's the same concept.

I'd be curious to know how electric motors handle salt and rust belt conditions.  The rust here destroys vehicles. Mechanical engines can work even all rusted out, whereas I don't know if an electric motor can.

I'd be happy to switch if they were economical.  A Tesla that fits my family is $100k, the cost of a small house.  The gas savings math on that one comes out to near infinity, even with the 20k miles we put on my wife's car.

I like what Audi is doing with their electric SUV.  I know people have mocked that it looks like a suburban family vehicle. But the thing is, that's what suburban families want to buy.  Most people I know don't want to stand out, they just want to blend in.  They don't want a flashy car, or to be part of an EV club.  They want something affordable, reliable, that serves a purpose.

I don't think your driving patterns are typical.  Most people commute 10-30 miles and go on long road trips rarely (a few times per year at most).  Having the spouse who does the most daily driving use the EV daily and using the ICE vehicle for road trips and for the other spouse, would save a bunch of fuel over having 2 ICE vehicles.  And the road trips wouldn't be an issue because they are rare and they wouldn't use the EV.


oddballstocks

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2431 on: October 19, 2018, 10:31:45 AM »
I have bathroom anxiety when I travel long distances with kids so I take them in my Roadtrek Sprinter van.  I just pull over to the shoulder on the freeway for their quick whizzz, and then get back onto the road.

This is my dream.  I've always said to my wife and friends, "If the money tree blooms I will buy a Sprinter RV van"  That's awesome you're doing this. 

I think trips to visit in-laws would be a lot better if the kids could relax on a couch.  I'd use it to drive down the night before a snow storm, sleep in a parking lot, then ski the next day.  It would be handy for impromptu parties after kids sporting events.
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rb

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2432 on: October 19, 2018, 10:55:40 AM »
Ultimately I think the best solution is probably the EV with a small gas engine. The drivetrain is all electric but a small gas engine powers the battery.  I mean if I had an EV truck I could always toss my Honda 2000eu generator in the bed, and run an extension cord.  It's the same concept.

I'd be curious to know how electric motors handle salt and rust belt conditions.  The rust here destroys vehicles. Mechanical engines can work even all rusted out, whereas I don't know if an electric motor can.

I'd be happy to switch if they were economical.  A Tesla that fits my family is $100k, the cost of a small house.  The gas savings math on that one comes out to near infinity, even with the 20k miles we put on my wife's car.

I like what Audi is doing with their electric SUV.  I know people have mocked that it looks like a suburban family vehicle. But the thing is, that's what suburban families want to buy.  Most people I know don't want to stand out, they just want to blend in.  They don't want a flashy car, or to be part of an EV club.  They want something affordable, reliable, that serves a purpose.
What you're describing there is a type of plug-in hybrid type vehicle. That's sort of what BMW did with the e models in their 3 and 5 series lines. Unfortunately with those vehicles you still get the nasty bits of having an ICE motor in your car: oil, cooling, maintenance, etc. Not having to worry about those is a cool part of EVs. For me the biggest appeal of an BMW e is that you can drive those in HOV lanes over here.

Winter salt and cold is not an issue for the motors. They're made of aluminium so they don't rust and I think they operate better at colder temps. The bigger problem is the effects of the cold on the battery since batteries don't like cold weather. But this has been taken care of by battery management systems. As far as I know (not 100% sure) what happens in the winter is that the battery uses some of its power to keep itself warm. This results in a somewhat lower range.

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2433 on: October 19, 2018, 10:58:22 AM »
My wife drives our Sequoia around town, and that could be as an EV.

But I mostly drive long road trips.  I work from home.  We do a longer trip at least once if not twice a month, and the other weekends we'll drive an hour or two go to hike.

Liberty, to your point with kids.  It's what your expectations are.  We drive long periods with the kids, doing 4hr straight isn't an issue (I have four boys, 8, 6, 3, 1.5) and they do fine.  We drive longer to VA, FL and will make minimum stops. On longer 15h trips we pull into fuel, and have a little shift thing so we can get everyone in and out of the bathroom before we're done fueling. We rush them, and that's just what life is.  I'm sure I'm in some weird 1% group, eh, whatever.

Ultimately I think the best solution is probably the EV with a small gas engine. The drivetrain is all electric but a small gas engine powers the battery.  I mean if I had an EV truck I could always toss my Honda 2000eu generator in the bed, and run an extension cord.  It's the same concept.

I'd be curious to know how electric motors handle salt and rust belt conditions.  The rust here destroys vehicles. Mechanical engines can work even all rusted out, whereas I don't know if an electric motor can.

I'd be happy to switch if they were economical.  A Tesla that fits my family is $100k, the cost of a small house.  The gas savings math on that one comes out to near infinity, even with the 20k miles we put on my wife's car.

I like what Audi is doing with their electric SUV.  I know people have mocked that it looks like a suburban family vehicle. But the thing is, that's what suburban families want to buy.  Most people I know don't want to stand out, they just want to blend in.  They don't want a flashy car, or to be part of an EV club.  They want something affordable, reliable, that serves a purpose.

I think you're in the 2% I was talking about.

Hybrid drivetrains are a transitional phase and will go away. It's very inelegant, because in EV mode you're lugging around the weight of an ICE, and in ICE mode, you have a small under-powered engine. On top of that, you have more mechanical complexity than either a pure EV or ICE. Even if you're taking long trips 10 times a year, you're lugging an ICE powertrain, using more electricity than otherwise needed, the remaining 345 days of the year.

The Chevy Volt is fine, but it's not the final destination of this technology. Batteries are getting better on power/weight, and costs are falling. Fast charging networks will be everywhere and their charge rates are going up... No reason to burn gasoline in passenger vehicles when the transition is complete.
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ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2434 on: October 19, 2018, 12:57:01 PM »
I went to the Rocklin service center today with questions on the battery packs.

Info collected
1). Battery packs will soon come down 30% in price
2). A refurbished Model S 85kwh replacement battery pack costs $17,000
3). A new Model S 85kwh replacement battery pack costs $25k now
4).  Originally, a new Model S battery pack was about $48,000

They are planning on soon making available 100kwh replacement packs as upgrades for cars with smaller packs.

He said the Gigafactory is responsible for the anticipated 30% upcoming price drop


Spekulatius

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2435 on: October 19, 2018, 02:46:08 PM »
I went to the Rocklin service center today with questions on the battery packs.

Info collected
1). Battery packs will soon come down 30% in price
2). A refurbished Model S 85kwh replacement battery pack costs $17,000
3). A new Model S 85kwh replacement battery pack costs $25k now
4).  Originally, a new Model S battery pack was about $48,000

They are planning on soon making available 100kwh replacement packs as upgrades for cars with smaller packs.

He said the Gigafactory is responsible for the anticipated 30% upcoming price drop
Interesting numbers. With 15k miles/year, 30mpg and $3/gallon, my fuel cost is about $1500/year. So a 85kwh battery pack is equivalent to 11 years of fuel for a typical vehicle and mileage.

How much does it cost to install a 220V charger in the garage? $1000? Or do people just use the 110V, even if it takes a while?
« Last Edit: October 19, 2018, 02:48:35 PM by Spekulatius »
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A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2436 on: October 19, 2018, 03:28:49 PM »
Shorting this thing seems to require a much greater burden of proof than going long (as short positions usually do). 1) asymmetry is working against you as your downside is limitless and upside limited (even if buying puts, option premium is pretty high here); 2) cost of borrowing shares is expensive; 3) cash flush tech firm likely to take this whole thing out at $20-30B valuation creating a floor for stock price (consider the fact that a few years ago, FB bought WhatsApp--that's right, a messaging app--for $20B), 4) this is a "hot" stock driven a lot by underlying bullish speculation, leaving shorts vulnerable to potentially devastating losses.

The Model 3 has become the best selling luxury car in America and broken to the top 5 of all cars sold. Let that sink in. And thus far, it's been selling the high margin high ATP models and still beat out much cheaper equivalent sedans in sales. There is a lot more demand out there and most sales have only been to U.S. customers (yet a global market exists for the model). Don't know what shorts have to stand on when they point out that only $45K+ models have been selling thus far (that is bad as an indication for demand and profitability how?).

Through SpaceX and Tesla, Musk has significantly impacted the world in a positive way whether you like his behavior or not.

I agree that shorting requires a greater burden of proof, but I disagree that there is a floor on the stock price at a valuation of $20-30B. You should consider the following:
- Most assets are already pledged (either via asset-backed loans or like the Gigafactory that actually belongs to Panasonic)
- Tesla's brand equity is decreasing (lot's of M3 quality issues, delivery issues, 420 tweet lawsuits, lack of investment in service centers)
- Tesla is behind the competition with respect to Full Self Driving
- This remains a one man show. What if Musk leaves or is forced to leave?
- Bond markets are more sophisticated than equity markets. Tesla's debt is trading at CCC levels
- Competition is coming. I admit it is a small sample size, but here in Belgium there are a lot of leased cars and my company (Deloitte) has selected the iPace instead of a Tesla at the executive level. Anyways, sales of model S and Model X are flat year-over-year so the growth should come from the M3, which, as indicated, still has lot's of quality issues.
- Besides lack of intellectual property: if you believe that Tesla has some kind of manufacturing advantage, you should definitely read this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-extreme-micro-manager.html
- the article also touches upon further proof of accounting fraud (mechanics working at Fremont booking their time on "training" or "R&D")

So all in all, this could definitely be a 0 imo.



ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2437 on: October 19, 2018, 04:02:23 PM »
Shorting this thing seems to require a much greater burden of proof than going long (as short positions usually do). 1) asymmetry is working against you as your downside is limitless and upside limited (even if buying puts, option premium is pretty high here); 2) cost of borrowing shares is expensive; 3) cash flush tech firm likely to take this whole thing out at $20-30B valuation creating a floor for stock price (consider the fact that a few years ago, FB bought WhatsApp--that's right, a messaging app--for $20B), 4) this is a "hot" stock driven a lot by underlying bullish speculation, leaving shorts vulnerable to potentially devastating losses.

The Model 3 has become the best selling luxury car in America and broken to the top 5 of all cars sold. Let that sink in. And thus far, it's been selling the high margin high ATP models and still beat out much cheaper equivalent sedans in sales. There is a lot more demand out there and most sales have only been to U.S. customers (yet a global market exists for the model). Don't know what shorts have to stand on when they point out that only $45K+ models have been selling thus far (that is bad as an indication for demand and profitability how?).

Through SpaceX and Tesla, Musk has significantly impacted the world in a positive way whether you like his behavior or not.

I agree that shorting requires a greater burden of proof, but I disagree that there is a floor on the stock price at a valuation of $20-30B. You should consider the following:
- Most assets are already pledged (either via asset-backed loans or like the Gigafactory that actually belongs to Panasonic)
- Tesla's brand equity is decreasing (lot's of M3 quality issues, delivery issues, 420 tweet lawsuits, lack of investment in service centers)
- Tesla is behind the competition with respect to Full Self Driving
- This remains a one man show. What if Musk leaves or is forced to leave?
- Bond markets are more sophisticated than equity markets. Tesla's debt is trading at CCC levels
- Competition is coming. I admit it is a small sample size, but here in Belgium there are a lot of leased cars and my company (Deloitte) has selected the iPace instead of a Tesla at the executive level. Anyways, sales of model S and Model X are flat year-over-year so the growth should come from the M3, which, as indicated, still has lot's of quality issues.
- Besides lack of intellectual property: if you believe that Tesla has some kind of manufacturing advantage, you should definitely read this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-extreme-micro-manager.html
- the article also touches upon further proof of accounting fraud (mechanics working at Fremont booking their time on "training" or "R&D")

So all in all, this could definitely be a 0 imo.

It's just odd to hear somebody say that the brand equity is decreasing when I see an invasion of Model 3 cars on the roads everyday.

Investmentacct

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2438 on: October 19, 2018, 05:10:54 PM »
Shorting this thing seems to require a much greater burden of proof than going long (as short positions usually do). 1) asymmetry is working against you as your downside is limitless and upside limited (even if buying puts, option premium is pretty high here); 2) cost of borrowing shares is expensive; 3) cash flush tech firm likely to take this whole thing out at $20-30B valuation creating a floor for stock price (consider the fact that a few years ago, FB bought WhatsApp--that's right, a messaging app--for $20B), 4) this is a "hot" stock driven a lot by underlying bullish speculation, leaving shorts vulnerable to potentially devastating losses.

The Model 3 has become the best selling luxury car in America and broken to the top 5 of all cars sold. Let that sink in. And thus far, it's been selling the high margin high ATP models and still beat out much cheaper equivalent sedans in sales. There is a lot more demand out there and most sales have only been to U.S. customers (yet a global market exists for the model). Don't know what shorts have to stand on when they point out that only $45K+ models have been selling thus far (that is bad as an indication for demand and profitability how?).

Through SpaceX and Tesla, Musk has significantly impacted the world in a positive way whether you like his behavior or not.

I agree that shorting requires a greater burden of proof, but I disagree that there is a floor on the stock price at a valuation of $20-30B. You should consider the following:
- Most assets are already pledged (either via asset-backed loans or like the Gigafactory that actually belongs to Panasonic)
- Tesla's brand equity is decreasing (lot's of M3 quality issues, delivery issues, 420 tweet lawsuits, lack of investment in service centers)
- Tesla is behind the competition with respect to Full Self Driving
- This remains a one man show. What if Musk leaves or is forced to leave?
- Bond markets are more sophisticated than equity markets. Tesla's debt is trading at CCC levels
- Competition is coming. I admit it is a small sample size, but here in Belgium there are a lot of leased cars and my company (Deloitte) has selected the iPace instead of a Tesla at the executive level. Anyways, sales of model S and Model X are flat year-over-year so the growth should come from the M3, which, as indicated, still has lot's of quality issues.
- Besides lack of intellectual property: if you believe that Tesla has some kind of manufacturing advantage, you should definitely read this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-extreme-micro-manager.html
- the article also touches upon further proof of accounting fraud (mechanics working at Fremont booking their time on "training" or "R&D")

So all in all, this could definitely be a 0 imo.

It's just odd to hear somebody say that the brand equity is decreasing when I see an invasion of Model 3 cars on the roads everyday.

Guessing that somebody who lives in Belgium and haven't landed on West Coast anytime recently after Model 3 launch. People who are living in or closer to California, for them it is easy to see why Brand equity going way up as more and more people are owning and taking test rides first time in Tesla and  who sees quoted/stated Tesla model 3 issues do not exist. Hence; the quote: "Ships sail round the world; flat world society flourishes." --Just returned from 1500 mile road trip, 1450 of which driven by Tesla Autopilot and no fatigue from Journey. This is amazing as I recall same tiring road trip 5 years back.