Author Topic: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy  (Read 19967 times)

paperwerks

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2017, 04:16:03 PM »
Thanks for writing this up.

Yes, it is true. 10 bagger potential with limited downside and it is all going to play out over the next few months.

This is a big position for me and the stock has been dead money for many years while we waited for this well to be drilled.

It almost seems unfair that new buyers today can take advantage of this opportunity right now and only have to wait a month or two for drilling as opposed to us who have been waiting many years.

In that respect POE is similar to fnma situation today

The stock is illiquid and soon speculation will begin as people try to pile in before drilling results are out.



moustachio

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2017, 08:26:18 AM »
Looks like this one is worth a position! Thank you sculpin.

Is There a Better Asymmetric Investment Play in E&P Land Than Pan Orient (POE - TSX - $1.30)?

While I don't know about "better", I do have a somewhat similar situation with drilling already started. East West Petroleum has an interest in Romania. The cost of drilling the wells is being fully carried by their working interest partner NIS. Here is a quote from that thread:
Quote
The other asset is four blocks comprising a million gross acres in Romania. EW completed a farm out agreement with Naftna Industrija Srbije(majority owned by Gazprom) as the operator. EW is fully carried for a 12 well phase 1 exploration(3 per block), and for another 3 optional per block for a potential phase 2. They have a 15% working interest in Romania.

Check out the thread I started a couple years ago which is somewhat outdated, but gives a bit of an overview and an update. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ew-v-ewpmf-east-west-petroleum/

Maybe there are even more of these microcaps out there and we can build a whole basket.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2017, 08:34:28 AM by moustachio »

Paarslaars

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2017, 10:18:59 AM »
Very interesting. Based on admittedly extremely shallow research I opened a small position (<1%) purely based on odds and EV based on a situation I only understand at a shallow level.

I will do more reading, thanks for sharing the idea.

Same here.

Since I believe you are dutch, did you buy PNO (FRA:DE) instead?
I'm getting taxed less on the german stock exchanges (in belgium) than the canadian ones and it avoids any valuta risk.

valcont

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2017, 11:28:14 AM »
Nice find Sculpin, I like that Talisman is picking up the tab for the drilling costs but:

What do you think about their cancellation of Batu Gajah PSC and a $102m impairment charge on Jan'12 recently? That prospect seemed promising last year after the Lemang discovery. Batu Gajah is not too far from East Jabung.

Do you know of any other oil/gas findings near East Jabung? I couldn't find any.

BTW Bill Newman is a perma bull on this name. He was bullish on Batu Gajah 2 years ago, his report seems like a copy'n'paste with the name of exploration fields changed.

wachtwoord

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2017, 12:06:18 PM »
Very interesting. Based on admittedly extremely shallow research I opened a small position (<1%) purely based on odds and EV based on a situation I only understand at a shallow level.

I will do more reading, thanks for sharing the idea.

Same here.

Since I believe you are dutch, did you buy PNO (FRA:DE) instead?
I'm getting taxed less on the german stock exchanges (in belgium) than the canadian ones and it avoids any valuta risk.

Cool didn't know it was traded there. As a Dutch (tax) citizen I don't pay taxes on trading profits.

Additionally, there is no valuta risk difference (they both represent a share in the same company, no matter the ticker currency).  Finally, for non-North American exchanges often the wrong dividend tax amount is withheld in my experience (as recently with Wilhelmsen from Norway which withheld 25% instead of 15) so I prefer North American exchanges. The venture exchange does have relatively high trading fees (but so do the Euronext exchanges so that's sort of the same).
"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master"

Paarslaars

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2017, 01:34:10 PM »
My bad, meant broker fee's not tax, tax is only relevent to dividend and that is not the play here.
For me broker fee's are substantially higher on canadian stocks than german ones though (Degiro).

Put in an order as well, downside seems limited so I might add to this in the upcoming months before drilling results are out.

sculpin

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2017, 09:37:26 AM »
Nice find Sculpin, I like that Talisman is picking up the tab for the drilling costs but:

What do you think about their cancellation of Batu Gajah PSC and a $102m impairment charge on Jan'12 recently? That prospect seemed promising last year after the Lemang discovery. Batu Gajah is not too far from East Jabung.

Do you know of any other oil/gas findings near East Jabung? I couldn't find any.

BTW Bill Newman is a perma bull on this name. He was bullish on Batu Gajah 2 years ago, his report seems like a copy'n'paste with the name of exploration fields changed.

Yes Batu Gajah was disappointing. Don't believe they can even use the losses there against future potential cash flows from Jabung. At any rate, this prospect is now a sunk cost & not a factor in the go forward case for POE.

As for East Jabung, look at page 7 in the presentation. The Jabung area is host to a good track record of oil & natural gas discoveries. Many of significant size. Petro China has been very active & successful. There is more detail on their web site but below is a snippet from their ops in this area....

From January 1997 to December 2014, Jabung Block totally produced 241.3 MBOE of oil, condensate and gas due to PetroChina’s long-term investment facilities and processing plants, as well as in persistent explorations for new hydrocarbon sources. In 2014, the average production of Jabung block stood at 56,000 BOEPD.

SharperDingaan

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2017, 12:11:37 PM »
Sculpin: Thanks for bringing this to the board.

It's early stages yet, but for us there are two things here that bother the hell out of us.

The head office is located in Indonesia, it trades on the TSE as a venture stock, & there's almost no volume. Touch this in any kind of meaningful way & it's going to drive up price in a big way; even with multiple bidders doing everything they can to ensure as light a touch as possible. Indonesia doesn't have the best reputation either, and Bre-X keeps springing to mind.

Assume they hit an elephant; do we really think they'll be able to keep it? - or is it more likely there's an 'arrangement'. Again this is Indonesia, and this thing had history with Talisman. If there is an 'arrangement', isn't it more pragmatic  to be with Repsol as the bigger player?

We wish everybody luck, but for now we're probably going to just wait and see how this develops.
It may turn out great, but we see a lot of flags.

SD

valcont

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2017, 09:04:34 AM »
Sculpin: Thanks for bringing this to the board.

It's early stages yet, but for us there are two things here that bother the hell out of us.

The head office is located in Indonesia, it trades on the TSE as a venture stock, & there's almost no volume. Touch this in any kind of meaningful way & it's going to drive up price in a big way; even with multiple bidders doing everything they can to ensure as light a touch as possible. Indonesia doesn't have the best reputation either, and Bre-X keeps springing to mind.

Assume they hit an elephant; do we really think they'll be able to keep it? - or is it more likely there's an 'arrangement'. Again this is Indonesia, and this thing had history with Talisman. If there is an 'arrangement', isn't it more pragmatic  to be with Repsol as the bigger player?

We wish everybody luck, but for now we're probably going to just wait and see how this develops.
It may turn out great, but we see a lot of flags.

SD

The company's head office is located in Calgary,Alberta. I think you are referring to the subsidiaries in Indonesia and Thailand. Its very common for the mining companies to open subs in the host
country.

http://www.sedar.com/DisplayProfile.do?lang=EN&issuerType=03&issuerNo=00009731

What do you mean by the 'arrangement'? They have transferred the 51% stake to Talisman to operate and develop the prospect. Additionally the PSC agreement entitles the Indonesian government  a 65% stake.

sculpin

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2017, 09:47:46 PM »
Did This Geologist Just Pinpoint This Decade’s Biggest Natural Gas Discovery?
By PiercePoints on March 4, 2017 7:47 pm

http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/03/biggest-natural-gas-discovery/?all=1