Author Topic: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy  (Read 19969 times)

wachtwoord

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2017, 04:23:35 AM »
News from last week but they chose to let Batu Gajah expire and are planning to execute Ayu-1 in the end of April. http://boereport.com/2017/03/23/pan-orient-energy-corp-2016-year-end-financial-operating-results/
"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master"


sculpin

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2017, 11:57:02 AM »
New 52 week high today in an absolutely brutal energy market. Indonesian drill finally coming this Summer! Also new presentation....

http://www.panorient.ca/images/stories/file/Pan_Orient_Presentation_June_13_2017.pdf



Pan Orient operator to begin drilling AYU-1 well July 5

2017-06-13 16:36 ET - News Release
Shares issued 54,885,407
POE Close 2017-06-13 C$ 1.58


Mr. Jeff Chisholm reports

PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP.: OPERATIONS AND CORPORATE UPDATE

Pan Orient Energy Corp. has provided an operations and corporate update.

Indonesia

East Jabung production sharing contract (Pan Orient: 49-per-cent ownership and non-operator)

The operator of the East Jabung PSC has advised that the drilling of the AYU-1 exploration well is anticipated to commence on or about July 5, 2017.

Corporate

Shareholders will be able to access the June 13, 2017, Pan Orient annual and special meeting presentation on the company's website.

About Pan Orient Energy Corp.

Pan Orient is a Calgary-based oil and gas exploration and production company with operations currently located onshore Thailand, Indonesia and in Western Canada.

Cardboard

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #22 on: July 04, 2017, 07:15:04 AM »
Start of drilling imminent or tomorrow!

This thing has mega potential and limited downside. If they hit a good well this could be massive or just like Niko used to be in India or Bre-X Minerals.

Bre-X is interesting because they were also in Indonesia and backed by a major or Barrick Gold. However, they tampered the samples to make it look like that there was lots of gold while there was nothing or a complete fraud.

This time around we have Repsol drilling or doing the exploration, funding most of the well cost and being the operator. No lie will come out of this. With oil at these prices you would think that they have some reason to believe that this has large potential to be spending $10 million U.S. on an exploratory well in the jungle.

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cwericb

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #23 on: July 04, 2017, 09:53:13 AM »
One thing I like about this is that the upside far outweighs the downside and the company seems to have some real assets. But in the end it is a gamble. If nothing else it will be entertaining.

lessthaniv

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #24 on: July 04, 2017, 11:30:46 AM »
I've built a position in POE patiently over the last year. Asymmetric bet. Even if the outcome in East Jabung doesn't pan out, the cash and other assets will support the intrinsic value of the stock and limit the downside from my ACB. Speculative bet for sure, but good odds ... had to push in some chips.
<IV

valcont

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #25 on: July 04, 2017, 03:18:20 PM »
Not an exploration expert but when I look at the third party prospect report , it says the chance of success for the East Jabung is 20%.

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/pan-orient-energy-corp-prospective-resource-report-anggun-prospect-indonesia-tsx-venture-poe-2044765.htm

Is that considered decent? Here is a good read about Chance of Success and how to think about expected value. At p.21 , you'll find 20-30% is the normal
COS for these kind of wells.

http://www.ccop.or.th/ppm/document/CAWS4/Risk%20and%20Exploration%20economy.pdf


Cardboard

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #26 on: August 28, 2017, 08:36:28 AM »
https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPOE-2499020&symbol=POE&region=C

Sounds very promising to me as they are preparing to start drilling already the 2nd well to meet the November 21 commitment deadline before testing is even finished on the 1st well!

Repsol would not spend a dime on this unless early indications from the 1st well mean a lot. They would at best finish testing on the 1st well before doing anything else considering that time is not an issue.

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Sunrider

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #27 on: August 28, 2017, 09:52:13 AM »
Hmm Cardboard, I'm not sure I read this note right, but did they stop drilling the first well or is it going to go deeper. I may have a completely wrong understanding here, but surely if the well struck meaningful oil or gas they'd know by know because it'd be coming to the surface, either from its own pressure or as part of the drilling fluid flowback?

I understand your enthusiasm but, unless I'm wrong re the above, or they are not complete with that well yet, it would seem that this first well is not a 'gusher'?

Thank you - C.


https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aPOE-2499020&symbol=POE&region=C

Sounds very promising to me as they are preparing to start drilling already the 2nd well to meet the November 21 commitment deadline before testing is even finished on the 1st well!

Repsol would not spend a dime on this unless early indications from the 1st well mean a lot. They would at best finish testing on the 1st well before doing anything else considering that time is not an issue.

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Cardboard

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #28 on: August 28, 2017, 12:10:49 PM »
I never said that the 1st well was a gusher. I am not a geologist but, it is not a dry hole either. However, I think that I know how to follow the money.

We know that Repsol was crystal clear that if drilling of the 1st well was disappointing that there would be no further testing on that well or a 20 some day period. Packing and going home!

Now instead of testing that well, they are going right away for a more expensive option or the drilling of a 2nd well. This was not the plan. It seems to indicate that they know already enough about that well and that they have enough confidence to commit further spending on that play.

The 1st well indicates that there are hydrocarbons in that area. The biggest risk for that stock was a dry hole and this is gone. Now, the question is how much oil & gas is there and is it economic to exploit?

I think it is very positive. Especially so considering that energy is still priced very low and that a large company like Repsol will allocate its capital very carefully in such environment. If they had not liked what they saw on the 1st hole, their commitment was over and they could have walked away. However, they didn't.

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sculpin

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Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #29 on: August 28, 2017, 12:14:43 PM »
Malcolm Shaw opinion
http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog.html


By: Malcolm Shaw

(Disclosure: The following represents my opinions only. I am not receiving any compensation for writing this article, nor does Hydra Capital have any business relationship with companies mentioned in this post. I am long POE.V)

In the oil exploration game, it's other never as simple as you might want it to be. Pan Orient Energy (last at C$1.81) released a drilling update on the much anticipated AYU-1X well and it would appear that the 'anticipation' is going to last a little longer as results were encouraging, but don't appear to be a clear-cut success. Preliminary analysis suggests that the well found "5.5 metres of high porosity net oil pay at the top of good quality reservoir in the Batu Raja limestone", which was the primary target interval in the well. That interpretation is supported by wireline logs, pressure data, and oil samples, so that's about as much confirmation as you're ever going to get without a flow test. Pan Orient went on to say that, "significant indications of hydrocarbons in the form of oil shows and high gas readings in well-developed sands of Gumai age were also found". That might mean that Pan Orient is close to something of interest in the secondary Gumai-age target interval, or it might mean that oil has simply swept through the structure at that level.

The well reached a total depth at 1,140 metres in granitic basement an August 21st, which was about 400 meters shy of the projected total depth as indicated on the drill curve in the company's corporate presentation. To me, that suggests that the structural interpretation was off by a fair bit, as the well was TD'd before the projected top of the Batu Raja (which was pre-drill estimated to be at 1,200m depth). It's unclear what implications that may have for the greater structural complex.

Based on the results of the AYU-1X well, the partners have elected to drill a sidetrack (ELOK-1X) to a subsurface location about 700 metres south where they aim to evaluate a possible thick wedge of Lower Talang Akar sandstones that are on-lapping the AYU-1X high and thus could be oil charged. The well is expected to take 30 days to drill.

So what does it all mean? For one, the presence of oil in highly porous Batu Raja limestone is a very good thing. It means that the development of reservoir in the Batu Raja interval has been proven and that oil has migrated into it. However, 5.5 metres of porous limestone may or may not cut it in the jungles of Indonesia. I ran some quick math on 5.5 metres of oil pay assuming 25% porosity, 75% oil saturation, and 30% recovery and I can end up in the ballpark of 3-5 mmbbls recoverable per square mile. That may or may not work, depending on a number of factors, including development costs and the prevalence of porous Batu Raja limestone in the area. It also remains to be seen where thicker Batu Raja oil pay might be found, if anywhere, in the greater structural complex. In a nutshell, I would say that more information is needed via updated mapping and/or additional drilling.

However, if the Lower Talang Akar sands are found to be both thick and oil-charged in the ELOK-1X sidetrack, the odds of commercial success are likely going to look a lot better. Just 30 more days of waiting... here's hoping they find a nice thick section of oil-charged Lower Talang Akar sands.

In the meantime, investors are left on edge again, waiting for more data. I have sold some of my stock this morning (for a small gain relative to my most recent purchase price of $1.60) in order to reduce my risk as the hopes of a thick Batu Raja oil hit on the first well is off the table, but I'm definitely keeping one foot in the door should the ELOK-1X sidetrack come up with the goods. In light of the oil pay encountered in the Batu Raja limestone, I would imagine that the partners will also be trying to find thicker Batu Raja reservoir in a structurally favourable position... surely that will be one of the topics at the upcoming partner meeting.

Stay tuned.